PV SOLAR AND WIND POWER IN GERMANY

by Willem Post,

dated August 11, 2010

http://www.coalitionforenergysolutions.org/

INTRODUCTION

Germany's 10-year experience with renewable energy promotion is often cited as a model to be emulated elsewhere, being based on a combination of far-reaching energy and environmental

laws that stretch back nearly two decades. During the past ten years, 2000-2010, generous feed-in tariff, FITs, were used to stimulate the installed capacity of PV solar and wind.

FIT DRIVEN INVESTMENTS

Over the 10-year FIT period, the PV solar power subsidies may total 53 billion Euros ($73.2 billion) for systems installed between 2000 and 2010.

Over the 10-year FIT period, the wind power subsidies may total 20.3 billion Euros ($28.1 billion) for wind turbines installed between 2000 and 2010.

By the end of 2009 the FITs led to Germany having


PV solar

wind ... 25,777 MW, behind the US 35,159 MW.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_States

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Germany

http://1bog.org/top-10-countries-using-solar-power/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power

FIT DRIVEN PRODUCTION

However, installed capacity is not the same as power production.


In 2008, Germany's power production was 611.9 TWh, of which

The German experience shows the economics of utility-size wind and PV solar power are such that utility-size wind provides about 6 times the power of PV solar for less than one third the subsidies spent on PV solar. Go Solar?

Whereas PV solar is the most subsidized renewable energy, it is nowhere near ready for "prime time"; it produces too little power per dollar invested.

Vermont, a poor state, should take note of these numbers before trying to emulate Germany, a rich state.

http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/p/pow-gen-ger.htm

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=12

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,4110890,00.html

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,605957,00.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2010/mar/11/solar-power-germany-feed-in-tariff

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125193815050081615.html

NATIONS WITH HIGH WIND POWER PERCENTAGES

At the end of 2009 the ten nations with the highest installed wind power were the


Nations with high wind power production percentages are

The reason these high percentages work for these nations is that a sufficient capacity of quick-responding pumped storage hydro plants are available to economically smooth their wind power. Spain and Portugal are also using quick-responding combined cycle gas turbine, CCGT, plants to smooth their wind power.

CCGT plants (Gas und Dampf, GuD)


Portugal's 2009 power production is from

Pumped storage hydro plants tied in with wind farms is by far the lowest cost renewable power arrangement, as proven by Denmark, Spain and Portugal during the past 10 years.

Germany's power plant capacity is about 133 GW. Germany's electric power grid is strongly connected to nearby grids. It is designed as they do their cars, etc., unlike the grid of the US which is a state-by-state patchwork of public-private grids. As a result Germany can handle 6.6% of variable, intermittent wind power AND have one of the lowest outage rates in the world. Germany has insufficient hydro plants and relies mostly on CCGT plants and a well-designed electric power grid to smooth its wind power.

Vermont, a poor state, should take note of the practices of other nations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power

http://www.aeeolica.es/userfiles/file/notas-de-prensa/100105-NP-Wind-Energy-has-consolidated-as-the-third-technology-of-the-power-system.pdf

GERMANY'S WIND AND PV SOLAR A SUCCESS?

Germany's wind and PV solar programs are a success for vendors, developers, etc., but from a power production viewpoint, the production results are dismal, especially for PV solar.

definition of renewables success is not installed capacity, but competitive power production.

Germany, realizing the huge investment in PV solar and the small quantity of variable, intermittent and expensive power from it, decided to significantly reduce its PV solar FITs.

Spain is much more favorable for concentrated solar power, CSP, and PV solar power than Germany and Vermont. In 2009, the combined production of CSP and PV solar was 2.8% of Spain's total production. Spain, a poor state relative to Germany and with significant budget problems, followed Germany's lead by significantly reducing its FITs for PV solar.

The above indicates Germany's renewable energy policy and the FIT scheme have failed to ensure a viable and cost-effective introduction of renewables energies into the German energy portfolio.

http://www.rwi-essen.de/pls/portal30/docs/FOLDER/PUBLIKATIONEN/GUTACHTEN/P_RENEWABLE+ENERGY+REPORT+RWI+FORMAT.PDF

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany

SHOULD VERMONT EMULATE GERMANY?

Renewables proponents claim Germany's wind and PV solar programs are a success. Solar proponents say that if solar is a "success" in Germany, Vermont with so much better sun should emulate Germany. In fact both are marginal for PV solar. The PV solar capacity factor in Southern Germany is about 0.120 vs 0.143 in Vermont. Northern Germany, too cloudy for PV and thermal solar, is more favorable for wind power, especially near and on the Baltic Sea.


Example of a recently installed small PV solar system:

A 58 kW DC, fixed-tilt, PV solar system located in a meadow, all-in owner cost $450,000, or $7,759/kW, for Farmway, Bradford, VT, supplied by groSolar, White River Junction, VT.

Farmway records show it produced 72,050 kWh during the 12 month period March 2009-February 2010.

Capacity Factor = 72,050 kWh/yr/(58 kW DC x 8,760 hr/yr) = 0.1418; the lower CF may be due to the panels having some dust and/or snow on them.

Efficiency = 72,050 kWh/yr/(58 kW DC x 4.3 avg peak sun hrs/d x 365 d/yr) = 0.79

Farmway could have purchased the 72,050 kWh for about $8,646, adjusted simple payback = {(72,050 kWh/yr x $0.12/kWh x 1.25)/$450,000} x 100% = 2.40%/yr.

The Clean Energy Development Fund, CEDF, provided a $226,000 taxpayer/ratepayer funded grant to help this "poor" business owner make expensive power.

http://view2.fatspaniel.net/PV2Web/merge?&view=PV/standard/Simple&eid=222370

Whereas Germany is a rich state that can afford to waste money on expensive renewables that produce just a little of variable, intermittent and expensive power, Vermont is a poor state struggling with multi-year deficits and cannot afford to emulate Germany by wasting its scarce resources on expensive renewables.

Vermonters would be better served if Vermont's economy became more efficient by investing its scarce resources in energy efficiency projects that have 1-5 year payback periods.


Source: Willem Post, PV SOLAR AND WIND POWER IN GERMANY
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