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A Time-Lapse Map of Every Nuclear Explosion Since 1945 - by Isao Hashimoto
Is it the TRUTH?
Is it FAIR to all concerned?
Will it build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS?
Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?
Psychologists tell us that people often project on to others what they don’t want to face in themselves. Others carry our “shadow” when we refuse to own it. We confer on others the very traits that we are horrified to acknowledge in ourselves. Could this apply to nations as well? Is this why we constantly find fault with Putin and Russia? Could it be that we
Could we be accusing Russia of election-meddling because we do this ourselves?
(Source: Sharon Tennison (Center for Citizen Initiatives), Understanding Russia, Un-Demonizing Putin, Feb. 6, 2016)
John Perry Barlow: Prinzipien erwachsenen Verhaltens (Quelle: Wikipedia)
Am 15. August 2013 nahm Barlow an einem AMA („Ask Me Anything“) auf Reddit teil, wobei er auf seine Principles of Adult Behavior („Prinzipien erwachsenen Verhaltens“) hinwies, die er 1977 am Vorabend seines dreißigsten Geburtstags aufgeschrieben hatte. Sie zirkulierten seither im Internet:
A Plea for Caution From Russia
By VLADIMIR V. PUTIN, SEPT. 11, 2013 (in cache)
WikiLeaks figure says ‘disgusted’ Democrat leaked Clinton campaign emails
By Dave Boyer - The Washington Times, Wednesday, December 14, 2016 (in cache)
A WikiLeaks figure is claiming that he received leaked Clinton campaign emails from a “disgusted” Democratic whistleblower, while the White House continued to blame Russian hackers Wednesday for meddling in the presidential election and asserted that Donald Trump was “obviously aware” of Moscow’s efforts on his behalf.
Craig Murray, a former British ambassador to Uzbekistan and a close associate of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, said in the report by the Daily Mail that he flew to Washington for a clandestine handoff with one of the email sources in September.
He said he received a package in a wooded area near American University.
“Neither of [the leaks] came from the Russians,” Mr. Murray told the British newspaper. “The source had legal access to the information. The documents came from inside leaks, not hacks.”
The White House still won’t say whether the U.S. has retaliated against what it describes as Russian efforts to influence the election of Donald Trump. “It merits a proportional response. I am not in a position to confirm whether we have initiated it or not,” [White House press secretary Josh] Earnest said.
He said “the United States is particularly vulnerable” to cyberattacks because of its heavy reliance on the internet.
“Given the interconnected nature of our society and our economy, the United States is in a unique position, vis-a-vis the rest of the world, because we rely on 21st-century communications technology for just about everything, in a way that lots of other societies and economies and countries don’t,” he said.
Trump Quiets Some Russian Doubts
Gilbert Doctorow, January 30, 2017 (in cache)
President Trump’s weekend phone call to President Putin seems to have quieted some of Russia’s concerns about the unpredictability of the real-estate-mogul-turned-politician, reports Gilbert Doctorow.
Below are the translaions of some select comments by the panelists
The second important aspect I’d note is in the Russian press release, namely the agreement to the establish partnership on an equal basis The United States has not had partnership relations of equals not only with Russia but with no one else as well in the years following the end of the Cold War. They dealt with Russia as the side that had lost the Cold War and towards whom you can carry out any policy line without regard to our concerns. Then another very important word we noted was “restoration” – used to characterize our future trade and economic relations. Restoration of trade and economic relations is a rather transparent reference to the idea that one way or another the sanctions will be reexamined. This is so although the word “sanctions” itself was not mentioned. I’d also note that they reviewed a wide range of issues. Syria, Ukraine, Iran, the Korean peninsula, and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. This presupposes, at a minimum, that in this rather short conversation there were no serious disagreements or differences of opinion. They discussed what they wanted to discuss. The questions were prepared and the participants in the discussion afterwards were satisfied. Therefore, I consider this a very good, encouraging start in Russian-American relations. Let us not tempt fate and let us knock wood..Let us hope this continues in the same way in the future. We could not hope for better than this.”
“We have just heard the phrase that ‘Europe has been sleeping.’ The discussion today is between Trump and Putin. ….Merkel and Hollande are stuck in the old formulas…..They have an old agenda. They don’t have anything in particular to offer…..Europe is off the highway and sidelined. This is another point that comes out of the [Trump-Putin] conversation.”
“I’d like to start with agreeing terms. World order is precisely the agreements between victorious powers after a global war. That is what was done at Yalta, Teheran, Potsdam. Helsinki was not on that level. When the Yalta arrangements collapsed the West, and the USA in particular took this to mean its victory. And it was not accidental that we had all those discussions about the unipolar world. And it was the dissatisfaction of Russia and others with this unipolar world led to the fact that now Trump will set up a new world order by reaching agreement with those powers who did not accept globalization from the 1990s which was supposed to set up a new world order. ….Russia can now be a participant in the creation of the new world order. Putting aside the list of issues, the main item on the conversation was when do we meet and in what format…
Dangers of Democratic Putin-Bashing
Robert Parry, February 1, 2017 (in cache)
Exclusive: As national Democratic leaders continue to blame Russian President Putin for their 2016 defeat, they’re leading their party into a realignment with the neocons and other war hawks, reports Robert Parry.
... in another way, what we’re seeing is not new. It is a replay of other “group thinks” in which some foreign leader is demonized beyond all reason allowing any accusation to be lodged against him with virtually no pushback from anyone interested in maintaining a U.S. mainstream career.
We saw this pattern, for instance, in the run-up to the Iraq War when Saddam Hussein was demonized to such a degree that any accusation against him was accepted without question, such as him hiding WMDs and colluding with Al Qaeda. In that context, some individuals supposedly with “first-hand knowledge” – “Iraqi defectors” – showed up to elaborate on and personalize the anti-Saddam propaganda message. We learned only later that many were scripted by the U.S.-government-funded Iraqi National Congress.
Since 2011, we saw the same demonization treatment applied to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who was depicted as a ruthless monster opposed by a “moderate opposition” which, in turn, was embraced by “human rights” groups, touted by Western media and applauded even by citizen “peace groups” around the United States and Europe. The Assad demonization obscured the fact that many “opposition” groups were part of an externally funded “regime change” project spearheaded by radical jihadists connected to Al Qaeda.
A Reagan Strategy
For me, this pattern goes back even further. I have witnessed these techniques since the 1980s when the Reagan administration tapped into CIA psychological warfare methods to rally the American people around a more interventionist foreign policy – to “kick the Vietnam Syndrome,” the public skepticism toward war that followed the Vietnam debacle.
Back then, senior CIA propagandist Walter Raymond Jr. was assigned to the National Security Council staff where he tutored young neocons, the likes of Elliott Abrams and Robert Kagan, drumming into them that the key was to personalize the propaganda by demonizing a particular leader, making him eminently worthy of hate.
Raymond counseled his acolytes that the goal was always to “glue” black hats on the side in Washington’s crosshairs and white hats on the side that Washington favored. The grays of the real world were to be avoided and any politician or journalist who sought to deal in nuance was disparaged as a fill-in-the-blank “apologist.”
So, in the 1980s, the Reagan administration targeted Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega, “the dictator in designer glasses,” as President Reagan dubbed him.
In 1989, before the invasion of Panama, Gen. Manuel Noriega got the treatment. In 1990, it was Saddam Hussein’s turn, deemed “worse than Hitler” by President George H.W. Bush. During the Clinton administration, the demon du jour was Serbia’s Slobodan Milosevic. In all these cases, there were legitimate criticisms of these leaders, but their evils were inflated to fantastical proportions to justify bloody military interventions by the U.S. government and its allies.
Regime Change in Moscow?
The main difference in recent years is that Official Washington’s neocons and liberal interventionists have taken aim at Russia with the goal of “regime change” in Moscow, a strategy that risks the world’s nuclear annihilation. But except for the stakes, the old script is still being followed.
How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze
Hans M. Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, Theodore A. Postol
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, 1 MARCH 2017
The US nuclear forces modernization program has been portrayed to the public as an effort to ensure the reliability and safety of warheads in the US nuclear arsenal, rather than to enhance their military capabilities. In reality, however, that program has implemented revolutionary new technologies that will vastly increase the targeting capability of the US ballistic missile arsenal. This increase in capability is astonishing—boosting the overall killing power of existing US ballistic missile forces by a factor of roughly three—and it creates exactly what one would expect to see, if a nuclear-armed state were planning to have the capacity to fight and win a nuclear war by disarming enemies with a surprise first strike.
... Russian planners will almost surely see the advance in fuzing capability as empowering an increasingly feasible US preemptive nuclear strike capability—a capability that would require Russia to undertake countermeasures that would further increase the already dangerously high readiness of Russian nuclear forces. Tense nuclear postures based on worst-case planning assumptions already pose the possibility of a nuclear response to false warning of attack. The new kill capability created by super-fuzing increases the tension and the risk that US or Russian nuclear forces will be used in response to early warning of an attack—even when an attack has not occurred.
The increased capability of the US submarine force will likely be seen as even more threatening because Russia does not have a functioning space-based infrared early warning system but relies primarily on ground-based early warning radars to detect a US missile attack. Since these radars cannot see over the horizon, Russia has less than half as much early-warning time as the United States. (The United States has about 30 minutes, Russia 15 minutes or less.)
The inability of Russia to globally monitor missile launches from space means that Russian military and political leaders would have no “situational awareness” to help them assess whether an early-warning radar indication of a surprise attack is real or the result of a technical error.
The combination of this lack of Russian situational awareness, dangerously short warning times, high-readiness alert postures, and the increasing US strike capacity has created a deeply destabilizing and dangerous strategic nuclear situation.
When viewed in the alarming context of deteriorating political relations between Russia and the West, and the threats and counter-threats that are now becoming the norm for both sides in this evolving standoff, it may well be that the danger of an accident leading to nuclear war is as high now as it was in periods of peak crisis during the Cold War.
The Silent Slaughter of the US Air War
By Nicolas J S Davies, May 9, 2017 (in cache)
Exclusive: The U.S. mainstream media voiced moral outrage when Russian warplanes killed civilians in Aleppo but has gone silent as U.S. warplanes slaughter innocents in Mosul and Raqqa, notes Nicolas J S Davies.
April 2017 was another month of mass slaughter and unimaginable terror for the people of Mosul in Iraq and the areas around Raqqa and Tabqa in Syria, as the heaviest, most sustained U.S.-led bombing campaign since the American War in Vietnam entered its 33rd month.
The Airwars monitoring group has compiled reports of 1,280 to 1,744 civilians killed by at least 2,237 bombs and missiles that rained down from U.S. and allied warplanes in April (1,609 on Iraq and 628 on Syria). The heaviest casualties were in and around Old Mosul and West Mosul, where 784 to 1,074 civilians were reported killed, but the area around Tabqa in Syria also suffered heavy civilian casualties.
In other war zones, as I have explained in previous articles (here and here), the kind of “passive” reports of civilian deaths compiled by Airwars have only ever captured between 5 percent and 20 percent of the actual civilian war deaths revealed by comprehensive mortality studies. Iraqbodycount, which used a similar methodology to Airwars, had only counted 8 percent of the deaths discovered by a mortality study in occupied Iraq in 2006.
Airwars appears to be collecting reports of civilian deaths more thoroughly than Iraqbodycount 11 years ago, but it classifies large numbers of them as “contested” or “weakly reported,” and is deliberately conservative in its counting. For instance, in some cases, it has counted local media reports of “many deaths” as a minimum of one death, with no maximum figure. This is not to fault Airwars’ methods, but to recognize its limitations in contributing to an actual estimate of civilian deaths.
Allowing for various interpretations of Airwars’ data, and assuming that, like such efforts in the past, it is capturing between 5 percent and 20 percent of actual deaths, a serious estimate of the number of civilians killed by the U.S.-led bombing campaign since 2014 would by now have to be somewhere between 25,000 and 190,000.
The Pentagon recently revised its own facetious estimate of the number of civilians it has killed in Iraq and Syria since 2014 to 352. That is less than a quarter of the 1,446 victims whom Airwars has positively identified by name.
Airwars has also collected reports of civilians killed by Russian bombing in Syria, which outnumbered its reports of civilians killed by U.S.-led bombing for most of 2016. However, since the U.S.-led bombing escalated to over 10,918 bombs and missiles dropped in the first three months of 2017, the heaviest bombardment since the campaign began in 2014, Airwars’ reports of civilians killed by U.S.-led bombing have surpassed reports of deaths from Russian bombing.
Because of the fragmentary nature of all Airwars’ reports, this pattern may or may not accurately reflect whether the U.S. or Russia has really killed more civilians in each of these periods. There are many factors that could affect that.
For example, Western governments and NGOs have funded and supported the White Helmets and other groups who report civilian casualties caused by Russian bombing, but there is no equivalent Western support for the reporting of civilian casualties from the Islamic State-held areas that the U.S. and its allies are bombing. If Airwars’ reporting is capturing a greater proportion of actual deaths in one area than another due to factors like this, it could lead to differences in the numbers of reported deaths that do not reflect differences in actual deaths.
Shock, Awe … and Silence
To put the 79,000 bombs and missiles with which the U.S. and its allies have bombarded Iraq and Syria since 2014 in perspective, it is worth reflecting back to the “more innocent” days of “Shock and Awe” in March 2003. As NPR reporter Sandy Tolan reported in 2003, one of the architects of that campaign predicted that dropping 29,200 bombs and missiles on Iraq would have, “the non-nuclear equivalent of the impact that the atomic weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had on Japan.”
At the start of the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, President George W. Bush ordered the U.S. military to conduct a devastating aerial assault on Baghdad, known as “shock and awe.”
When “Shock and Awe” was unleashed on Iraq in 2003, it dominated the news all over the world. But after eight years of “disguised, quiet, media-free” war under President Obama, the U.S. mass media don’t even treat the daily slaughter from this heavier, more sustained bombardment of Iraq and Syria as news. They cover single mass casualty events for a few days, but quickly resume normal “Trump Show” programming.
As in George Orwell’s 1984, the public knows that our military forces are at war with somebody somewhere, but the details are sketchy. “Is that still a thing?” “Isn’t North Korea the big issue now?”
There is almost no political debate in the U.S. over the rights and wrongs of the U.S. bombing campaign in Iraq and Syria. Never mind that bombing Syria without authorization from its internationally recognized government is a crime of aggression and a violation of the U.N. Charter. The freedom of the United States to violate the U.N. Charter at will has already been politically (not legally!) normalized by 17 years of serial aggression, from the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 to the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, to drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen.
So who will enforce the Charter now to protect civilians in Syria, who already face violence and death from all sides in a bloody civil and proxy war, in which the U.S. was already deeply complicit well before it began bombing Syria in 2014?
In terms of U.S. law, three successive U.S. regimes have claimed that their unconstrained violence is legally justified by the Authorization for the Use of Military Force passed by the U.S. Congress in 2001. But sweeping as it was, that bill said only,
“That the President is authorized to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11th, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations or persons.”
How many of the thousands of civilians the U.S. has killed in Mosul in the past few months played any such role in the September 11th terrorist attacks? Every person reading this knows the answer to that question: probably not one of them. If one of them was involved, it would be by sheer coincidence.
Any impartial judge would reject a claim that this legislation authorized 16 years of war in at least eight countries, the overthrow of governments that had nothing to do with 9/11, the killing of about 2 million people and the destabilization of country after country – just as surely as the judges at Nuremberg rejected the German defendants’ claims that they invaded Poland, Norway and the U.S.S.R. to prevent or “preempt” imminent attacks on Germany.
U.S. officials may claim that the 2002 Iraq AUMF legitimizes the bombardment of Mosul. That law at least refers to the same country. But while it is also still on the books, the whole world knew within months of its passage that it used false premises and outright lies to justify overthrowing a government that the U.S. has since destroyed.
The U.S. war in Iraq officially ended with the withdrawal of the last U.S. occupation forces in 2011. The AUMF did not and could not possibly have approved allying with a new regime in Iraq 14 years later to attack one of its cities and kill thousands of its people.
Caught in a Web of War Propaganda
Do we really not know what war is? Has it been too long since Americans experienced war on our own soil? Perhaps. But as thankfully distant as war may be from most of our daily lives, we cannot pretend that we do not know what it is or what horrors it brings.
This month, two friends and I visited our Congresswoman’s office representing our local Peace Action affiliate, Peace Justice Sustainability Florida, to ask her to cosponsor legislation to prohibit a U.S. nuclear first strike; to repeal the 2001 AUMF; to vote against the military budget; to cut off funding for the deployment of U.S. ground troops to Syria; and to support diplomacy, not war, with North Korea.
When one of my friends explained that he’d fought in Vietnam and started to talk about what he’d witnessed there, he had to stop to keep from crying. But the staffer didn’t need him to go on. She knew what he was talking about. We all do.
But if we all have to see dead and wounded children in the flesh before we can grasp the horror of war and take serious action to stop it and prevent it, then we face a bleak and bloody future. As my friend and too many like him have learned at incalculable cost, the best time to stop a war is before it starts, and the main lesson to learn from every war is: “Never again!”
Both Barack Obama and Donald Trump won the presidency partly by presenting themselves as “peace” candidates. This was a carefully calculated and calibrated element in both their campaigns, given the pro-war records of their main opponents, John McCain and Hillary Clinton. The American public’s aversion to war is a factor that every U.S. president and politician has to deal with, and promising peace before spinning us into war is an American political tradition that dates back to Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt.
As Reichsmarschall Hermann Goering admitted to American military psychologist Gustave Gilbert in his cell at Nuremberg, “Naturally, the common people don’t want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.”
“There is one difference,” Gilbert insisted, “In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.”
Goering was unimpressed by Madison‘s and Hamilton’s cherished constitutional safeguards. “Oh, that is all well and good,” he replied, “but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them that they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.”
Our commitment to peace and our abhorrence of war are too easily undermined by the simple but timeless techniques Goering described. In the U.S. today, they are enhanced by several other factors, most of which also had parallels in World War Two Germany:
–Mass media that suppress public awareness of the human costs of war, especially when U.S. policy or U.S. forces are responsible.
–A media blackout on voices of reason who advocate alternative policies based on peace, diplomacy or the rule of international law.
–In the ensuing silence regarding rational alternatives, politicians and media present “doing something,” meaning war, as the only alternative to the perennial straw man of “doing nothing.”
–The normalization of war by stealth and deception, especially by public figures otherwise seen as trustworthy, like President Obama.
–The dependence of progressive politicians and organizations on funding from labor unions that have become junior partners in the military industrial complex.
–The political framing of U.S. disputes with other countries as entirely the result of actions by the other side, and the demonization of foreign leaders to dramatize and popularize these false narratives.
–The pretense that the U.S. role in overseas wars and global military occupation stems from a well-meaning desire to help people, not from U.S. strategic ambitions and business interests.
Taken altogether, this amounts to a system of war propaganda, in which the heads of TV networks bear a share of responsibility for the resulting atrocities along with political and military leaders. Trotting out retired generals to bombard the home front with euphemistic jargon, without disclosing the hefty directors’ and consultants’ fees they collect from weapons manufacturers, is only one side of this coin.
The equally important flip-side is the media’s failure to even cover wars or the U.S. role in them, and their systematic marginalization of anyone who suggests there is anything morally or legally wrong with America’s wars.
The Pope and Gorbachev
Pope Francis recently suggested that a third party could act as a mediator to help resolve our country’s nearly 70-year-old conflict with North Korea. The Pope suggested Norway. Even more importantly, the Pope framed the problem as a dispute between the United States and North Korea, not, as U.S. officials do, as North Korea posing a problem or a threat to the rest of the world.
This is how diplomacy works best, by correctly and honestly identifying the roles that different parties are playing in a dispute or a conflict, and then working to resolve their disagreements and conflicting interests in a way that both sides can live with or even benefit from. The JCPOA that resolved the U.S. dispute with Iran over its civilian nuclear program is a good example of how this can work.
This kind of real diplomacy is a far cry from the brinksmanship, threats and aggressive alliances that have masqueraded as diplomacy under a succession of U.S. presidents and secretaries of state since Truman and Acheson, with few exceptions. The persistent desire of much of the U.S. political class to undermine the JCPOA with Iran is a measure of how U.S. officials cling to the use of threats and brinksmanship and are offended that the “exceptional” United States should have to come down from its high horse and negotiate in good faith with other countries.
At the root of these dangerous policies, as historian William Appleman Williams wrote in The Tragedy of American Diplomacy in 1959, lies the mirage of supreme military power that seduced U.S. leaders after the allied victory in the Second World War and the invention of nuclear weapons. After running headlong into the reality of an unconquerable post-colonial world in Vietnam, this American Dream of ultimate power faded briefly, only to be reborn with a vengeance after the end of the Cold War.
Much as its defeat in the First World War was not decisive enough to convince Germany that its military ambitions were doomed, a new generation of U.S. leaders saw the end of the Cold War as their chance to “kick the Vietnam syndrome” and revive America’s tragic bid for “full spectrum dominance.”
As Mikhail Gorbachev lamented in a speech in Berlin on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 2014, “the West, and particularly the United States, declared victory in the Cold War. Euphoria and triumphalism went to the heads of Western leaders. Taking advantage of Russia’s weakening and the lack of a counterweight, they claimed monopoly leadership and domination of the world, refusing to heed words of caution from many of those present here.”
This post-Cold War triumphalism has predictably led us into an even more convoluted maze of delusions, disasters and dangers than the Cold War itself. The folly of our leaders’ insatiable ambitions and recurrent flirtations with mass extinction are best symbolized by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock, whose hands once again stand at two and a half minutes to midnight.
The inability of the costliest war machine ever assembled to defeat lightly-armed resistance forces in country after country, or to restore stability to any of the countries it has destroyed, has barely dented the domestic power of the U.S. military-industrial complex over our political institutions and our national resources. Neither millions of deaths, trillions of dollars wasted, nor abject failure on its own terms has slowed the mindless spread and escalation of the “global war on terror.”
Futurists debate whether robotic technology and artificial intelligence will one day lead to a world in which autonomous robots could launch a war to enslave and destroy the human race, maybe even incorporating humans as components of the machines that will bring about our extinction. In the U.S. armed forces and military industrial complex, have we already created exactly such a semi-human, semi-technological organism that will not stop bombing, killing and destroying unless and until we stop it in its tracks and dismantle it?
Nicolas J S Davies is the author of Blood On Our Hands: the American Invasion and Destruction of Iraq. He also wrote the chapters on “Obama at War” in Grading the 44th President: a Report Card on Barack Obama’s First Term as a Progressive Leader.
Watergate Redux or ‘Deep State’ Coup?
May 10, 2017
By Robert Parry
Exclusive: Official Washington is abuzz, comparing President Trump’s ouster of FBI Director Comey to President Nixon’s Watergate cover-up, but there is a darker “deep state” interpretation of these events, says Robert Parry.
President Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey on Tuesday reflected a growing concern inside the White House that the long-rumored scheme by “deep state” operatives to overturn the results of the 2016 election may have been more than just rumors.
The fear grew that Comey and other senior officials in the U.S. intelligence community had concluded last year that neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump was a suitable future president, albeit for different reasons. I’m told that Clinton was seen as dangerously hawkish and Trump as dangerously unqualified, opinions privately shared by then-President Barack Obama.
So, according to this account, plans were made last summer to damage both Clinton and Trump, with the hope of putting a more stable and less risky person in the Oval Office – with key roles in this scheme played by Comey, CIA Director John Brennan and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.
When I first heard about this supposed cabal in the middle of last year, I dismissed it as something more fitting a Jason Bourne movie than the real world. But – to my amazement – the U.S. intelligence community then began intervening in the presidential campaign in unprecedented ways.
On July 5, 2016, Director Comey dealt a severe blow to Clinton by holding a press conference to denounce her use of a private email server while Secretary of State as “extremely careless,” yet he announced that no legal action would follow, opening her to a damaging line of attack that she jeopardized national security but that her political status gave her special protection.
Then, on Oct. 28, just ten days before the election, Comey reopened the investigation because of emails found on the laptop of disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, the husband of Clinton’s close aide Huma Abedin. That move re-injected Clinton’s email controversy into the campaign, along with the unsavory issues surrounding Weiner’s sexting scandal, and reminded voters about the sex-related scandals that have swirled around Bill Clinton for years.
To make matters worse, Comey closed the investigation again just two days before the election, once more putting the Clinton email controversy in front of voters. That also reaffirmed the idea that Clinton got special treatment because of her political clout, arguably the most damaging image possible in an election year dominated by voter anger at “elites.”
Clinton herself has said that if the election had been held on Oct. 27 – the day before Comey reopened the email inquiry – she would have won. In other words, whether Comey’s actions were simply clumsy or possibly calculated, the reality is that he had an outsized hand in drowning Clinton’s candidacy, a point that Trump’s Justice Department also noted on Tuesday in justifying Comey’s firing.
And, we now know that Comey was leading a parallel investigation into possible Russian collusion with the Trump campaign, instigated at least in part by a dossier prepared by ex-British spy Christopher Steele, paid for by Clinton supporters and containing allegations about secret meetings between Trump aides and influential Russians.
Last July, the FBI reportedly secured a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrant against former Trump foreign policy adviser Carter Page. Page was mentioned in the Steele dossier and gave an academic speech in Moscow on July 7 mildly critical of U.S. policies toward Russia and other nations of the former Soviet Union, two apparent factors in justifying the FISA warrant.
Before the election, people close to Clinton also tried to get the U.S. media to publicize the Steele dossier and particularly its anonymous claims about Trump cavorting with prostitutes in a Moscow hotel while Russian intelligence agents supposedly filmed him. However, because media outlets could not confirm Steele’s allegations and because some details turned out to be wrong, the dossier remained mostly under wraps prior to the election.
However, after Trump’s surprising victory on Nov. 8, President Obama and his intelligence chiefs escalated their efforts to undermine Trump’s legitimacy. The Obama administration leaked an intelligence assessment that Russian President Vladimir Putin had orchestrated the hacking of Democratic emails and their publication by WikiLeaks to undermine Clinton and help Trump.
The intelligence community’s assessment set the stage for what could have been a revolt by the Electoral College in which enough Trump delegates might have refused to vote for him to send the election into the House of Representatives, where the states would choose the President from one of the top three vote-getters in the Electoral College.
The third-place finisher turned out to be former Secretary of State Colin Powell who got three votes from Clinton delegates in Washington State. The idea of giving votes to Powell was that he might be an acceptable alternative to House members over either Clinton or Trump, a position that I’m told Obama’s intelligence chiefs shared. But the Electoral College ploy failed when Trump’s delegates proved overwhelmingly faithful to the GOP candidate on Dec. 19.
Still, the effort to undermine Trump did not stop. President Obama reportedly authorized an extraordinary scheme to spread information about Russia’s purported assistance to Trump across the federal bureaucracy and even overseas.
Comey, Brennan and Clapper also set in motion a hasty intelligence assessment by hand-picked analysts at the CIA, the FBI and the National Security Agency, producing a report on alleged Russian electoral interference that was released on Jan. 6.
Though Clapper had promised to release a great deal of the evidence, the declassified version of the report amounted mostly to “trust us” along with a one-sided analysis of Putin’s alleged motive, citing his well-known disdain for Clinton.
But the report failed to note the other side of that coin, that Putin would be taking a great risk by trying to hurt Clinton and failing, given Clinton’s odds as the prohibitive favorite to defeat Trump. Putin would have to assume that the NSA with its powerful surveillance capabilities would pick up a Russian initiative and inform an irate President Hillary Clinton.
In other words, the Jan. 6 report was not some careful analysis of the pros and cons for believing or doubting that Russia was behind the WikiLeaks disclosures. It amounted to a prosecutor’s brief, albeit without any public evidence to support the Russia-did-it charge.
We learned later that the report’s classified appendix included a summary of Steele’s dossier that was then briefed to President Obama, President-elect Trump and to members of Congress, guaranteeing that its damaging but unproven allegations would finally get widely circulated in the mainstream media, as indeed promptly happened.
Hobbling Trump’s Presidency
So, going into the Inauguration, Russia-gate was dominating the front pages of newspapers as well as the endless chat shows on cable TV despite the fact that no real evidence was presented proving Russia was responsible for the WikiLeaks’ posts – and WikiLeaks denied getting the material from Russia. There was also no evidence that Trump’s campaign had colluded with the Russians in this endeavor.
But those suspicions quickly hardened into a groupthink among many Democrats, liberals and progressives. Their hatred of Trump and their dread about his policies convinced some that the ends of removing Trump justified whatever means were employed, even if those means had more than a whiff of McCarthyism.
On Inauguration Day, many anti-Trump protesters carried signs accusing Trump of being Putin’s boy. Sensing a political opportunity, congressional Democrats joined the #Resistance and escalated their demands for a sweeping investigation of any connections between Trump’s team and Russia. Their clear hope was something might turn up that could be exploited in an impeachment proceeding.
As the principal intelligence holdover from the Obama administration, Comey assumed an essential role in this operation. It would be up to the FBI to secure the financial records from Trump and his associates that could provide a foundation for at least suspicions of a sinister relationship between them and Russia.
Trump may have thought that he bought some political space by complying with political pressure to fire National Security Adviser Michael Flynn on Feb. 13 over what exactly was said in a pre-Inauguration phone conversation between Flynn and the Russian Ambassador. Trump also got the Russia-gate pressure to lessen when, on April 6, he fired 59 Tomahawk missiles at Syria over an alleged chemical attack. But he soon came to realize that those respites from Russia-gate were brief and that an incipient constitutional coup might be underway with him as the target.
However, if those coup suspicions have any truth – and I realize many Americans do not want to accept the notion that their country has a “deep state” – firing Comey may fuel Trump’s troubles rather than end them.
Trump clearly is unpopular not only among Democrats but many Republicans who see him as an unprincipled interloper with a nasty Twitter finger. The Comey firing is sure to spark new demands for a special prosecutor or at least more aggressive investigations by Congress and the press.
Although Democrats had condemned Comey for his interference in the Clinton campaign, they now are rallying to Comey’s side because they viewed him as a key instrument for removing Trump from office. After Comey’s firing, from The New York Times to CNN, the mainstream media was filled with comparisons to Richard Nixon’s Watergate cover-up.
One of the few voices commending Trump for his action, not surprisingly, came from Carter Page, who briefly served as a Trump foreign policy adviser and has found himself in the crosshairs of a high-powered counterintelligence investigation as a result.
“It is encouraging that further steps toward restoring justice in America have been taken with the termination and removal from office of FBI Director James Comey,” Page said in a statement.
“Although I have never met President Trump, his strength and judgment in holding senior officials accountable for wrongdoing stands in stark contrast to last year when ordinary private citizens outside of Washington like myself were targeted for exercising their Constitutional rights.
“Under James Comey’s leadership in 2016, I was allegedly the subject of an intensive domestic political intelligence operation instigated by the FBI and based on completely false allegations in a FISA warrant application.”
Yet, despite what Page and other Trump advisers caught up in the Russia-gate probe may hope, the prospects that Comey’s firing will end their ordeal are dim. The near certainty is that whatever Obama and his intelligence chiefs set in motion last year is just beginning.
The Scandal Hidden Behind Russia-gate
By Daniel Lazare,
May 11, 2017
Exclusive: Official Washington has the Russia-gate scandal almost 180-degrees wrong; it is not about protecting democracy, but about pushing Americans into more wars, the true scandal that is being missed.
[There are differences between Watergate and Russia-Gate]
Difference No.1: Watergate was about a real event, the June 17, 1972.
... the burglars turned out to be part of a special security operation known as the White House Plumbers
.... Since the FBI has never conducted an independent investigation – for as-yet-unexplained reasons, the DNC refused to grant it access to its servers despite multiple requests – the only evidence that a break-in even occurred comes from a private cyber-security firm, CrowdStrike Inc. of Irvine, California, that the DNC hired to look into the breach.
Since when do the cops rely on a private eye to look into a murder rather than performing an investigation of their own? CrowdStrike, moreover, turns out to be highly suspect. Not only is Dmitri Alperovich, its chief technical officer, a Russian émigré with a pronounced anti-Putin tilt, but he is also an associate of a virulently anti-Russian outfit known as the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank funded by the Saudis, the United Arab Emirates, the Ukrainian World Congress, the U.S. State Department and a variety of other individuals and groups that have an interest in isolating or discrediting Russia.
... But CrowdStrike then said it was able to pin it on the Russians because the hackers had made certain elementary mistakes, most notably uploading a document in a Russian-language format under the name “Felix Edmundovich,” an obvious reference to Felix E. Dzerzhinsky, founder of the Cheka, as the Soviet political police were originally known. It was the equivalent of American intelligence agents uploading a Russian document under the name “J. Edgar.” Since this was obviously very careless of them, it raised an elementary question: how could the hackers be super-sophisticated yet at the same time guilty of an error that was unbearably dumb?
The skeptics promptly pounced. Referring to Russia’s two top intelligence agencies, a well-known cyber-security expert named Jeffrey Carr was unable to restrain his sarcasm: “OK. Raise your hand if you think that a GRU or FSB officer would add Iron Felix’s name to the metadata of a stolen document before he released it to the world while pretending to be a Romanian hacker. Someone clearly had a wicked sense of humor.”
Since scattering such false leads is child’s play for even a novice hacker, it was left to John McAfee, founder of McAfee Associates and developer of the first commercial anti-virus software, to draw the ultimate conclusion. “If it looks like the Russians did it,” he told TV interviewer Larry King, “then I can guarantee you: it was not the Russians.”
Difference No. 2: Russia-gate is not about democracy but about neo-McCarthyism and war.
For all the self-serving hoopla and mythology surrounding Watergate, the scandal was ultimately about something important: the dirty tricks and lawless authoritarianism that were advancing smartly under the Nixon administration. But Russia-gate is not about democracy. Rather, it is about an inside-the-beltway battle over the direction of U.S.-Russian relations.
The battle is deadly serious. Since roughly 2008, Cold War II has expanded steadily to the point where it now extends along a 1,300-mile front from Estonia to the Crimea plus the Caucasus and major portions of the Middle East. It has intensified as well and would likely have reached a flashpoint if the hawkish Hillary Clinton had been elected.
... In other words, Page [,an academic and energy entrepreneur and former Trump foreign policy adviser] drew official notice because he dared to differ with the orthodox view of Putin as a latter-day Lucifer. As a consequence, he now finds himself at the center of what the Times describes as “a wide-ranging investigation, now accompanied by two congressional inquiries, that has cast a shadow over the early months of the Trump administration.” So, out of nothing (or at least very little) has grown something very, very large, an absurd pseudo-scandal that now has Democrats gobbling on about special prosecutors and impeachment.
... As Consortium News’ Robert Parry has pointed out (see “The McCarthyism of Russia-gate,” May 7), the Senate Intelligence Committee hit Page with a sweeping order on April 28 to turn over anything and everything having to do with his extensive list of Russian business, personal and casual contacts for the 18 months prior to Trump’s Inauguration.
The order thus informs Page that he must turn over “[a] list of all meetings between you and any Russian official or representative of Russian business interests which took place between June 16, 2015, and January 20, 2017 … all meetings of which you are aware between any individual with the Trump campaign and any Russian official or representative of Russian business interests … [a]ll communications records, including electronic communications records such as e-mail or text messages, written correspondence, and phone records of communications … to which you and any Russian official or representative of Russian business interests was a party,” and so on and so forth.
Considering that Page lived in Russia for several years, the request is virtually impossible. It thus “amounts to a perjury trap,” Parry notes, “because even if Page tried his best to supply all the personal, phone, and email contacts, he would be sure to miss something or someone, thus setting him up for prosecution for obstructing an investigation or lying to investigators.”
Dems crippling Trump’s plans to cooperate with Russia out of own ambitions – Stephen Cohen
SophieCo, Russia Today, 19 May, 2017 10:00
Stephen Cohen: ... you would have to ask why are all these, I think, false allegations being made against President Trump? Because the narrative that Trump somehow is Kremlin agent is what broke out after Lavrov and Trump met in the White House, in the Oval office. Because it was a normal meeting, it was an important meeting, it was part of trying to build, between Trump and Putin, an alliance against international terrorism, particularly in Syria. So that would’ve been a good thing, and it is a good thing, but the enemies of that, and the enemies of Trump, turned it into a scandal that does not exist.
... Moreover, the Israelis have said “nothing was revealed” - this is just part of the narrative against either Trump personally or the attempt to build a new relationship with Russia based on cooperation. But Sophie, please understand, this is a unique moment - there’s never been anything like it in my lifetime, in American-Russian relations, and it’s exceedingly dangerous.
... have they been running an operation which involves this leaking you mentioned, against Trump, which is now going on for almost a year. If so, it began last July, with these charges about Trump’s illicit relations with the Kremlin. Now, bear in mind, Sophie, that all of these allegations are based on leaks, intelligence leaks. There’s no evidence they’re coming from Trump’s people. But Trump doesn't control the intelligence services. We’re not sure who does, and therefore, we are now asking, some of us: who is doing this leaking and for what purpose? But it doesn’t stop, it continues, and it has continued since Trump became president. So, you’ve posed a big question, but I want to add - it’s only a question, we don’t have an answer. It needs to be discussed in the United States, that’s for sure.
... he said repeatedly, and I quote: “Wouldn’t it be great to cooperate with Russia?” He meant, in the war against international terrorism. And I thought, and many others thought here - “Yes, it would be great!”, despite everything that’s happened, and think about this, Sophie - Trump has not stopped trying to negotiate with President Putin of Russia. There have been conversations between Trump and Putin, your foreign minister, Lavrov, and our Secretary of State Tillerson have met, they appeared to be talking regularly, there’s a plan, but it may be sabotaged, for Trump and Putin to meet in July.
... Again, there’s no conspiracy with Russia, but it dominates the media.
... international terrorism” sounds bland, but if these terrorists get ahold of radioactive material or chemical weapons, we are talking about a catastrophe like Chernobyl. This is not some secondary issue. This is existential.
... Because they don’t tell us everything they’re doing and they should not. We know that between Trump and Putin there have been conversations both at the level of the Russian foreign minister Lavrov and the American Secretary of State Tillerson, but also, with other people playing a role. I would guess that Henry Kissinger has played a role. But there are official and non-official people, but nonetheless, the enemies of this cooperation are so powerful in the United States, and there are enemies of it in Moscow too, let’s be candid - the question is, whether these leaders can do it. And Trump is crippled, but he’s not fully crippled, and he’s pushing ahead, best we can know, but every time he does, we get a new fake scandal, like what happened in the Oval office about the intelligence. It’s completely bogus, Sophie, there’s nothing to it.
Sophie Shevardnadze: Why is this idea not taken at face value - why is it that whoever says “Maybe we should change our attitude towards Russia” is immediately suspected or branded as being the Kremlin’s spy?
SC: This has happened before in our history, but it’s been kind of in bars and in minor newspapers, gossip. It’s never become the national narrative, as it is today. Part of it, I think, is the absolute hatred of Trump on the part of the Democratic party and its allies. Part of it is very strong opposition in Washington. Not only in the intelligence agencies, but in the United States Senate, on the part of people like Senator McCain and his allies in the Democratic party, against any cooperation with Moscow. Part of it is a lack of high political culture in our kind of international, diplomatic discourse here. We are not terribly informed nation about foreign affairs. Sometimes, when American journalist call me up and ask me a question, it’s clear to me they don’t even understand their own question. We’re a provincial nation, Sophie, we’re not part of Europe, and many young people and old people, who do journalism in this country, have very little experience. So the discourse becomes primitive and crude, but there are a lot of factors working into this. I would say, the loathing for Trump and the opposition to any President’s - they sabotaged Obama too, at one one point - cooperation with Russia.
... I just saw, what I think is the cover of the new Time magazine - used to be a very-very popular magazine, less so today - and the cover has a drawing of a White House that has been turned half into the Kremlin. So, they’ve merged Kremlin and the White House, and this is the motif, that there’s some kind of Putin-Trump access in the White House which New York Times columnists write about all the time. So what’s published in Foreign Policy magazine ought not to be taken seriously. Scarcely anything in the mainstream media today can be taken at face value. Everybody has to study for his or herself in America today.
... And the Democratic party, particularly the Hillary Clinton wing of the Democratic party, has already made it clear that it’s going to push this Trump-Russia story, at least until the Congressional elections in 2018. They think it’s a winning issue, and I think it’s fairly clear, that this is Mrs. Clinton’s hope to run again, because she will say: “I did not run a bad campaign, I did not lose - Putin stole my election from me and gave it to Trump”. And they’re going to push this at the grassroots, it’s already there at the town meetings, at Democratic grassroots, and they’re going to push it and push it at least until the elections, off-year elections, we call them, in 2018. So this is a given. No matter what facts emerge, the Democratic party is going to push this as they are now every day.
US Report Still Lacks Proof on Russia ‘Hack’
By Robert Parry, January 7, 2017
Despite mainstream media acceptance, the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment on alleged Russian “hacking” still lacks hard public evidence, a case of “trust-us” by politicized spy agencies.
Open Letter to Trump
from leading artists, politicians, journalists: drop charges and investigation into WikiLeaks
1:20 PM - 15 May 2017
... We call on you as President of the United States to close the Grand Jury investigation into WikiLeaks and drop any charges planned against any member of WikiLeaks. It was a free and robust press that provided you with a platform on which to run for president. Defending a truly free press requires freedom from fear and favour and the support of journalists and citizens everywhere; for the kind of threat now facing WikiLeaks — and all publishers and journalists — is a step into the darkness.
Alfonso Sánchez, Andrej Hunko (Member of German Parliament (DIE LINKE), member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe), Andrew Bartlett (Former Senator in the Australian Parliament - 1997-2008), Andrew Fowler (Journalist/author), Andy Müller-Maguhn (Member of the Board, Wau Holland Foundation (WHS) / Centre for Investigative Journalism (CIJ)), Angela Richter (Director), Ann Wright (Col., US Army (ret.); Foreign Service Officer (zurückgetreten)), Annegret Falter (Whistleblower-Network), Annie Machon (Former British intelligence officer), Brandon Bryant (Recipient of the 2015 Whistleblower of the Year Award, former drone pilot), Coleen Rowley (FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)), ...Diani Barreto (Journalist, researcher, campaigner, coordinator at ExposeFacts), ... Edward Snowden (President, Freedom of the Press Foundation), ... Friedrich Moser (director A GOOD AMERICAN), Günter Wallraff (Investigative journalist), ... Jérémie Zimmermann (La Quadrature du Net, co-founder), ...John Kiriakou (Former CIA Counterterrorism Officer), John Pilger (journalist, Courage Trustee), ... Kirk Wiebe (NSA Whistleblower and Retired Senior Intelligence Analyst), , ... Oliver Stone (filmmaker), ... Patti Smith(artist), , ... Ray McGovern (Former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.) and founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity as well as Sam Adams Associates for Integrity in Intelligence), , ... Thomas Drake (Former Senior Executive, NSA), ... William Binney (Technical Director, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)), Yanis Varoufakis (economist and co-founder of DiEM25), more
Russia-gate’s Shaky Foundation
By Daniel Herman, September 29, 2017 (in cache)
Special Report: The Russia-gate hysteria now routinely includes rhetoric about the U.S. being at “war” with nuclear-armed Russia, but the shaky factual foundation continues to show more cracks, as historian Daniel Herman describes.
John F. Kennedy, 399 - White House Statement Following the Return of a Special Mission to South Viet-Nam. October 2, 1963
3. Major U.S. assistance in support of this military effort is needed only until the insurgency has been suppressed or until the national security forces of the Government of South Viet-Nam are capable of suppressing it.
Secretary McNamara and General Taylor reported their judgement that the major part of the U.S. military task can be completed by the end of 1965, although there may be a continuing requirement for a limited number of U.S. training personnel. They reported that by the end of this year, the U.S. program for training Vietnamese should have progressed to the point where 1,000 U.S. military personnel assigned to South Viet-Nam can be withdrawn.
5. It remains the policy of the United States, in South Viet-Nam as in other parts of the world, to support the efforts of the people of that country to defeat aggression and to build a peaceful and free society
Hillary Clinton’s Deceptive Blame-Shifting
Robert Parry, June 1, 2017
... Referring to a report (in cache) ...
[this report titled Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections” is a declassified version of a highly classified assessment that has been provided to the President and to recipients approved by the President]
... released by President Obama’s Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on Jan. 6, Clinton asserted that “17 agencies, all in agreement, which I know from my experience as a Senator and Secretary of State, is hard to get. They concluded with high confidence that the Russians ran an extensive information war campaign against my campaign, to influence voters in the election. They did it through
So that was the conclusion.”
But Clinton’s statement is false regarding the unanimity of the 17 agencies and misleading regarding her other claims. Both former DNI James Clapper and former CIA Director John Brennan acknowledged in sworn testimony last month that the Jan. 6 report alleging Russian “meddling” did not involve all 17 agencies.
Clapper and Brennan stated that the report was actually the work of hand-picked analysts from only three agencies – the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation – under the oversight of the DNI’s office. In other words, there was no consensus among the 17 agencies, a process that would have involved some form of a National Intelligence Estimate (or NIE), a community-wide effort that would have included footnotes citing any dissenting views.
Instead, as Clapper testified before a Senate Judiciary subcommittee on May 8, the Russia-hacking claim came from a “special intelligence community assessment” (or ICA) produced by selected analysts from the CIA, NSA and FBI, “a coordinated product from three agencies – CIA, NSA, and the FBI – not all 17 components of the intelligence community,” the former DNI said.
... “It wasn’t a full inter-agency community assessment that was coordinated among the 17 agencies, and for good reason because of the nature and the sensitivity of the information trying, once again, to keep that tightly compartmented,” Brennan said.
... Her reference to the 1,000 Russian “agents” is not contained in the Jan. 6 report, either. It apparently derived from unconfirmed speculation from Sen. Mark Warner, D-Virginia, who mentioned this claim at a news conference on March 30, admitting that he didn’t know if it was true.
... the reality is that U.S. intelligence agencies, their allies and U.S.-government-funded “non-governmental organizations” have mounted similar operations against Russia and other targets.
... Neither, of course, are Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party eager to engage in a serious self-criticism about how they managed to blow an extremely winnable race against an extraordinarily flawed candidate in Donald Trump. Rather than look at their own missteps and misjudgments, they are presenting themselves as innocent victims.
In Wednesday’s interview – after misrepresenting what the Jan. 6 report actually said – Clinton suggested that the Trump campaign must have colluded with the Russians in “weaponizing” the data.
[The Russians] were conveying this weaponized information and the content of it. … So the Russians — in my opinion and based on the intel and the counterintel people I’ve talked to — could not have known how best to weaponize that information unless they had been guided. … Guided by Americans and guided by people who had polling and data information.”
... Clinton lacked any proof of this convoluted accusation ...
... while the Democrats dig themselves deeper into the so-far empty pit of blaming Russia for their electoral disaster, the Russia-gate investigation continues to take on other curious aspects, such as an unwillingness to hear from some of Donald Trump’s advisers who have been named in accusations and who have volunteered to testify publicly.
The US Hand in the Libyan/Syrian Tragedies
By Jonathan Marshall
June 9, 2017
Exclusive: The Obama administration’s “regime change” debacles in Libya and Syria are spreading terrorist violence into Europe, but they have inflicted vastly more bloodshed in those two tragic nations.
... A decade ago, Libya was a leading foe of radical jihadis, not a sanctuary for their international operations. A 2008 State Department memo [see below] noted that “Libya has been a strong partner in the war against terrorism.” It gave the Gaddafi regime credit for “aggressively pursuing operations to disrupt foreign fighter flows,” particularly by veterans of jihadist wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
All that came to an end in 2011, when armed rebels, including disciplined members of al-Qaeda and Islamic State, enlisted NATO’s help to topple Gaddafi’s regime. Western leaders ignored the prescient warnings of Gaddafi’s son Seif that “Libya may become the Somalia of North Africa, of the Mediterranean. . . .You will see millions of illegal immigrants. The terror will be next door.” Gaddafi himself similarly predicted that once the jihadis “control the Mediterranean . . . then they will attack Europe.”
... In April 2012, Lebanese authorities confiscated a ship carrying more than 150 tons of arms and ammunition originating in Misrata, Libya. A U.N.-authorized panel inspected the weapons and reported finding SA-24 and SA-7 surface-to-air missiles, anti-tank guided missiles, and a variety of other light and heavy weapons.
By that August, according to Time magazine, “hundreds of Libyans” had flocked to Syria to “export their revolution,” bringing with them weapons, expertise in making bombs, and experience in battlefield tactics.
“Within weeks of the successful conclusion of their revolution, Libyan fighters began trickling into Syria,” the magazine noted. “But in recent months, that trickle has allegedly become a torrent, as many more have traveled to the mountains straddling Syria and Turkey, where the rebels have established their bases.”
A Syrian rebel told the newsweekly, “They have heavier weapons than we do,” including surface-to-air missiles. “They brought these weapons to Syria, and they are being used on the front lines.”
A month later, the London Times reported that a Libyan ship carrying more than 400 tons of weapons bound for Syria, including SAM-7 anti-aircraft missiles and rocket-propelled grenades, had docked in Turkey. Such weapons particularly compounded the suffering of civilians caught up in the war.
As France’s foreign minister told reporters that October, rebel-held anti-aircraft missiles were “forcing (Syrian government) planes to fly extremely high, and so the strikes are less accurate.”
According to later reporting by journalist Seymour Hersh, most such Libyan weapons made their way to Syria via covert routes supervised by the CIA, under a program authorized by the Obama administration in early 2012. Funding and logistics support came from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. The CIA supposedly avoided disclosing the program to Congress by classifying it as a liaison operation with a foreign intelligence partner, Britain’s MI6.
Word of the operation began leaking to the London media by December 2012. The CIA was said to be sending in more advisers to help ensure that the Libyan weapons did not reach radical Islamist forces.
Of course, their efforts came too late; U.S. intelligence officials knew by that time that “the Salafist(s), the Muslim Brotherhood, and (al-Qaeda)” were “the major forces driving the insurgency.” The influx of new arms simply compounded Syria’s suffering and raised its profile as a dangerous arena of international power competition.
Libya’s arms and fighters helped transform the Syrian conflict from a nasty struggle into a bloodbath. As Middle East scholar Omar Dahi noted, “the year 2012 was decisive in creating the present catastrophe. There were foreign elements embroiled in Syria before that date . . . but until early 2012 the dynamics of the Syrian conflict were largely internal. . . . Partly in . . . appropriation of weapons pumped in from the outside and partly in anticipation of still greater military assistance, namely from the West, the opposition decided to take up arms.
“The decision—militarization—had three main effects. First, it dramatically increased the rate of death and destruction throughout the country. . . . By mid-2012, the monthly casualties were almost in excess of the total in the entire first year of the uprising. Militarization gave the Syrian regime a free hand to unleash its full arsenal of indiscriminate weaponry. . . Perhaps most fatefully, the advent of armed rebellion placed much of the opposition’s chances in the hands of those who would fund and arm the fighters. . . . It was then that the jihadi groups were unleashed.”
The collateral victims of NATO’s intervention in Libya now include 6 million Libyans attempting to survive in a failed state, millions of people across North Africa afflicted by Islamist terrorism, 20 million Syrians yearning for an end to war, and millions of innocent Europeans who wonder when they might become targets of suicidal terrorists. There is nothing “humanitarian” about wars that unleash such killing and chaos, with no end in sight.
2008 State Department Memo
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR SECRETARY RICE'S VISIT TO LIBYA
Source: Wikileaks Document
Embassy Tripoli and the Government of Libya are looking forward to your [Condoleezza Rice's] historic visit to Tripoli September 5. Coming on the heels of NEA A/S Welch's successful finalization of a comprehensive claims settlement agreement in Tripoli August 14, the GOL views your visit as a signature event in its decade-long effort to achieve reintegration into the international community, and as a tangible benefit of its strategic decision in 2003 to abandon its WMD programs and renounce terrorism. Key issues for your visit include:
Paul Jay, Reality Asserts Itself, May 22, 2017
Norman Solomon joins Paul Jay on Reality Asserts Itself discussing the Trump/Russia affair and plans to isolate & perhaps attack Iran
Paul Jay: I think this relates to the first segment of our interview. We were talking about the fight within the Democratic Party and the fight against the oligarchy that represents the control of the DNC and the Democratic Party. It comes very much to this question of what you make of Chuck Schumer and his allies. The anti-Russia kick is being used as a way to wound the Trump presidency, and for good reason many people all of whom consider themselves progressive would like to wound the Trump presidency, and for good reason. I mean, I personally think this Trump/Pence presidency will be in terms of foreign policy as or more dangerous as the Bush/Cheney administration. Domestically, they'll be clearly far worse. You can see from the Cabinet appointments and Supreme Court and such. Opposition to that Trump camp that merges with the Schumer camp means merges with the oligarchy within the Democrat Party. Actually winds up just strengthening the people that are really behind the scenes that benefit from an oligarchy domestic policy and oligarchy foreign policy.
Paul Jay: At the heart of this issue of Comey and the elections and such is an underlying assumption in the media, in the political world, that Russia is America's adversary, antagonistic adversary. You hear this word over and over again. I mean, if Trump had been sitting down with the Canadians and gave them some intelligence about ISIS, nobody would have cared. If he had been sitting down with Germany, nobody would have cared because they're our allies. What is a progressive view do you think on this whole demonization of Putin and the Russians?
Norman Solomon: Well, at RootsAction.org which I co-founded with Jeff Cohen, we're unfortunately somewhat unusual in that as a large online action group, and we have one and a half million active people now. We refuse to jump on the anti-Russia bandwagon. It's absolutely tragic that so many people who I believe should know better are jumping in to fueling what amounts to a new cold war. We've got to ask ourselves, where does that lead? This anti-Russia hoopla, this bandwagon. Where is it headed? It's headed toward increased tension with another huge nuclear power. There are 4,000 nuclear weapons pointed from Russia, mostly in U.S. direction and vice versa. What's the end game here? Do we want to conflict in eastern Europe or elsewhere, Ukraine that could escalate into nuclear war? Is it really worth it to score some political points real or imagined against Republicans and heighten the chance that the world will end up with nuclear holocaust? I think the irresponsibility of so many left liberal groups in jumping on the anti-Russia bandwagon is mind-blowing. The idea-
Paul Jay: Only because it damages Trump. If Obama had been proposing exactly the same thing, they all about have been for it.
Norman Solomon: Well, it's seen as a tool, a club to hit Trump over the head with. I believe that there are certainly other impeachable offenses. ... I think from the standpoint of world security, the idea that the juggernaut of rhetoric against Russia should be fueled by Democrats, I think it's similar to the CEOs of the corporations who will look at the next two quarters and they think it's to their advantage to do a poisonous dump into the river because they're going to make a profit. People like Pelosi and Schumer and their acolytes in the media and among Democratic Party groups, they are poisoning our future because they think they're going to make headway.
Paul Jay: Well, literally because what they're telling us is that Russia is a greater threat to America than climate change.
Norman Solomon: Yeah, [crosstalk 00:11:27].
Paul Jay: They don't talk about climate change at all and they never shut up about Russia.
Norman Solomon: It's also a way to displace reality about what happened in 2016. They want to pretend that the election of Trump and the anti-Democratic factors in the U.S. came primarily or largely from Kremlin. I think that is absolutely absurd.
Paul Jay: Not talk at all about the substance of what was released in Wikileaks, which is if the DNC hadn't been plodding against Sanders, there never would have been an issue in the first place.
Norman Solomon: It wasn't fake news. It was accurate. We can argue about whether it should have been released or not, but was totally accurate. There was nothing fake about it, and there's no focus at all then on the caging of the hundreds of thousands of registered voters, the way structurally in state after state people of color or poor people were discouraged from or sometimes prevented from voting. The death of a thousand cuts to democracy, that is a panoply of self-inflicted wounds. The absurdity of Democrats or anyone else pointing to the Kremlin when we have a lack of democracy in our own country that is fully homegrown, I think that is a real abdication or moral and political responsibility.
Paul Jay: I mean, as a news organization, we report on Putin's autocracy. We report on the suppression of civil rights and human rights in Russia. We reported on the killing of journalists in Russia. The oligarchs of Russia are ... People have called it a kleptocracy. One of our guests often calls capitalism in Russia Jurassic Park capitalism because it's so barbaric. All of that being said, Russia's done nothing on a global scale that compares with the crimes of U.S. foreign policy. How do these liberals, progressives, whatever they want to call themselves, keep forgetting that?
Norman Solomon: Well, FAIR, the media watch group that I've been an associate with has pointed out that in 1996 Time magazine did a cover story bragging about how the U.S. had gotten Boris Yeltsin re-elected. Direct interference. If we're going to look at the realities, the geopolitical realities, the fact that the U.S. has expanded NATO up to the borders of Russia and therefore greatly increase ... I mean, can you imagine the Warsaw Pact expanding to Mexico or Canada? That action which is contravention of what the first President Bush promised to Gorbachev that this would not happen after the Berlin Wall fell. This is an example where we've got to look at the world from other vantage points, not just the myopic, jingoistic, red, white and blue lenses that we're encouraged to look through.
Paul Jay: The core of the narrative of the military industrial complex, the core of the narrative that justifies an almost trillion dollar military intelligence, security budget and perhaps more than a trillion dollars. Is Russia the existential threat? They have what? 60 and more years invested in that narrative, and along comes with Trump, and he wants to undo the narrative. It's very interesting that he only lost the popular vote by three million. He wins the Electoral College. Most Americans, they don't need this Russia is the boogieman story. We're very open to have a more rational policy towards Russia, but it takes out. You don't need aircraft carriers if you're only fighting ISIS.
Norman Solomon: One of the insidious things is that when somebody opens his or her mouth and points out some of these factors, increasingly they're being accused of being some sort of symp for flunky or ideological ally with the Kremlin. When you look at the impact of that, it is calculated to have impact on Trump as well. A broken clock is correct once in a while, and broken as he is politically and psychologically, when Trump says it would be good to get along with Russia, that is what one president after another in his saner moments has said when you got these two huge super powers. Aa a matter of fact, we're coming up very close to the 50th anniversary of the Spirit of Glassboro meeting where Kosygin from Russia and President Lyndon Johnson met to further détente. If people want to win their jingoistic, nationalistic, ideological war, and blow up the world with nuclear weapons, that's going to be a very small comfort that they stuck to their pride in America as they perceive it.
This is a calculated pressure. I'll give this one other example. A calculated pressure to push Trump away from any rational relationship with the Kremlin. You know that the Center for American Progress, the Podesta outfits, still closely intertwined and aligned with the Clinton wing of the party; they in recent months have launched something called the Moscow Project. They're crowdsourcing explicitly any bit of information that can tie any Trump associate or Trump himself to Russia. They've got a huge amount of money. They explicitly are trying to bring Trump down on the basis of Russia, and I think that's very dangerous.
Paul Jay: I do not personally trust Trump's intent for wanting to reconcile with Russia. I think there's abundance of evidence that it's a fossil fuel play. This is why Tillerson got this Friendship Award when he was at Exxon. They want to lift sanctions on Russia because they want to have ... Putin seems to be willing to make a deal where they're going to let western capital, western fossil fuel companies come in and make a lot more money out of Russian oil, but who cares about the intent? Maybe that's his intent, but the policy of having a more normalized relationship with Russia and reducing the tensions, that has to be good for people. It also seems so bloody obvious.
Paul Jay: It goes another step, which I think is even more dangerous, because in spite of all the rhetoric against Russia, I don't think any of these forces are planning a real war against Russia. The military industrial complex love it, love an almost-war because it justifies these massive expenditures. The Democratic Party liberal establishment loves it because they're drawing some blood in terms of partisan politics. ...
Lied To Death: Conversations With Daniel Ellsberg On Why We Go To War
By Arn Menconi, 2015
Excerpts from Chapter 1 (transcript)
Now, what I'm saying is: The US had a covert foreign policy. The foreign policy is not what the President or the State Department says it is. It is not ever what a public affairs officer says it is. The policy is always different from that. But I'm saying much more than the fact that I used to think (I've learnt much more than that) that it has a covert component. That's well known. They don't generally know what covert means the way I just described it. They don't understand that it means not just secret but lying, and explicitely lying. Anything secret, if it's very secret, has to be protected by some lies, such as if somebody asks you "Do you know of this report?", which you just read or wrote, and you have to say "No.", because the existence of that report is secret. So to keep that secret you have to lie about what you know and what you think and so forth. But I'm saying more than that: A covert policy is not merely secret, is lying from start to finish
I conceive of the American foreign policy as being in the service of covert empire. Covert in two senses.
And, first, let me say that the word "covert" means not only "secret" or sometimes synomymously "clandestine". But clandestine in particular situations sounds like secret operations, operations that you keep secret from the public. And that includes some military planning for example, which has to be secret from the enemy. But covert implies: it's not merely secret, but it is accompanied by a cover story, a false account of every aspect of the policy, which is meant to deceive the domestic public, not merely foreigners, not merely adversaries, and may or may not be known to allies on a secret basis. But to deceive them as to what the policy is, what the targets are, what you are trying to achieve, what the interests are, the (?) of the policy, and what the means are. And above all to conceal who is running this.. ...
We don't have a foreign policy that uses in part covert operations in peacetime as in wartime. ... The purposes of our covert operations, the purposes of our foreign policy in general are different from what we say. They are not to improve our national security. To a large extent they endanger our national security by tolerating or provocing or promoting threats literally to our existence. Without our foreign policy there would not be five thousand Soviet missiles aimed at us that could destroy the world including us any day. Those wouldn't exist if our foreign policy was different. If our foreign policy was aimed primarily at preventing the United States from facing an existential -by which I mean survival, physical survival to the last human- if it were aimed at preventing threats to our physical survival, it could easily have been oriented toward preventing the existence of what at one point was about 30 000 Soviet weapons. But that existence is a collateral accepted by our policy, it's a price of our foreign policy which is for our own benefit, not based on our security.
(more about US foreign policy in Daniel Ellsberg, "The Doomsday Machine - Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner", 2017, Excerpts)
In this context see also:
Ben Norton in Loud and Clear "After NYC Attack: A Deeper Look Into the Origins of Modern Terrorism"
On the Nov. 2nd 2017 episode of Loud & Clear, Brian Becker and John Kiriakou are joined by journalist Ben Norton,
... these [terrorists] groups of today have their origins in the Cold War on the opposite side. In the 1980s the most infamous example is the US in partnership with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. They supported extremists groups (Mujaheddin) inside Afghanistan to fight the USSR-backed socialist government in Afghanistan. Mujahedin are the ideological and political forefathers for many of the groups we see today. So, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda directly have their origin in Afghanistan in the 1980s. And at that moment they were supported by the CIA.
Far right, facists groups do not distinguish between government and civilians The US supported extremely brutal groups (e.g. the Contras in Nicaragua) in the 1980s in Central America. This kind of violence is rooted in empires. And because the resistance groups have all been crushed, all that's left are these extremists groups that have turned on their former imperial sponsors.
US policy has effectively empowered Al-Qaeda in Yemen, Libya and Syria, Taliban in Afghanistan, ISIS in Iraq.
Democrats Face Failing Russia-gate Scheme
By Norman Solomon, June 26, 2017
"The plan for Democrats to run against Russia may be falling apart.
now Democrats in Congress and other party leaders are starting to face an emerging reality: The “winning issue” of Russia is a losing issue.
... A major poll has just reached conclusions that indicate party leaders have been operating under political illusions. Conducted last week, the Harvard-Harris national poll found a big disconnect between the Russia obsession of Democratic Party elites in Washington and voters around the country.
... The [Harvard-Harris national] poll “reveals the risks inherent for the Democrats, who are hoping to make big gains — or even win back the House — in 2018,” The Hill reported. “The survey found that
... Yes, a truly independent investigation is needed to probe charges that the Russian government interfered with the U.S. election. And investigators should also dig to find out if there’s actual evidence that Trump or his campaign operatives engaged in nefarious activities before or after the election. At the same time, let’s get a grip. The partisan grandstanding on Capitol Hill, by leading Republicans and Democrats, hardly qualifies as “independent.”
In the top strata of the national Democratic Party, and especially for the Clinton wing of the party, blaming Russia has been of visceral importance. A recent book about Hillary Clinton’s latest presidential campaign — Shattered by journalists Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes — includes a revealing passage. “Within 24 hours of her concession speech,” the authors report, campaign manager Robby Mook and campaign chair John Podesta “assembled her communications team at the Brooklyn headquarters to engineer the case that the election wasn’t entirely on the up-and-up.” At that meeting, “they went over the script they would pitch to the press and the public. Already, Russian hacking was the centerpiece of the argument.”
... In early spring, the former communications director of the 2016 Clinton presidential campaign, Jennifer Palmieri, summarized the post-election approach in a Washington Post opinion piece: “If we make plain that what Russia has done is nothing less than an attack on our republic, the public will be with us. And the more we talk about it, the more they’ll be with us.”
... I warned ("Democrats are playing with fire on Russia", 1/9/2017) that “the most cohesive message from congressional Democrats is: blame Russia. The party leaders have doubled down on an approach that got nowhere during the presidential campaign — trying to tie the Kremlin around Donald Trump’s neck.”
And I added: “Still more interested in playing to the press gallery than speaking directly to the economic distress of voters in the Rust Belt and elsewhere who handed the presidency to Trump, top Democrats would much rather scapegoat Vladimir Putin than scrutinize how they’ve lost touch with working-class voters.”
But my main emphasis in that Jan. 9 article was that “the emerging incendiary rhetoric against Russia is extremely dangerous. It could lead to a military confrontation between two countries that each has thousands of nuclear weapons.”I noted that “enthusiasm for banging the drum against Putin is fast becoming a big part of the Democratic Party’s public identity in 2017. And — insidiously — that’s apt to give the party a long-term political stake in further demonizing the Russian government.” My article pointed out: “The reality is grim, and potentially catastrophic beyond comprehension. By pushing to further polarize with the Kremlin, congressional Democrats are increasing the chances of a military confrontation with Russia.” ..."
Democrats are playing with fire on Russia
BY NORMAN SOLOMON, CONTRIBUTOR - 01/09/17
"... Meanwhile, the emerging incendiary rhetoric against Russia is extremely dangerous. It could lead to a military confrontation between two countries that each have thousands of nuclear weapons. At the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last Thursday on foreign cyber threats, ranking member Jack Reed (D-RI) denounced “Russia’s rejection of the post-Cold War international order and aggressive actions against its neighbors,” and he condemned “a regime with values and interests so antithetical to our own.” ...
... At the same time, enthusiasm for banging the drum against Putin is fast becoming a big part of the Democratic Party’s public identity in 2017. And — insidiously — that’s apt to give the party a long-term political stake in further demonizing the Russian government. The reality is grim, and potentially catastrophic beyond comprehension. By pushing to further polarize with the Kremlin, congressional Democrats are increasing the chances of a military confrontation with Russia. By teaming up with the likes of Republican senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham to exert bipartisan pressure for escalation, Democrats could help stampede the Trump administration in reckless directions.
This approach is already underway. It is worse than irresponsible. It is madness that could lead to a nuclear holocaust."
What Trump Can Expect from Putin
By Ray McGovern, July 1, 2017
... For decades, the Russians have viewed an invulnerable nuclear-tipped strategic missile force as a deterrent to a U.S. attack though they have never displayed an inclination to commit suicide by actually firing them.
From this perspective, Putin wonders why the U.S. might seek to upset the nuclear balance by deploying ABM systems around Russia’s borders, making Russia’s ICBM force vulnerable.
Putin’s generals, like yours, are required to impute the most provocative intentions to military capabilities; that is what military intelligence is all about. Thus, they cannot avoid seeing the ABM deployments as giving the U.S. the capability for a first strike to decapitate Russia’s ICBM force and, by doing so, protecting the U.S. from Russian nuclear retaliation.
And, as Putin has made clear, the Kremlin sees U.S. claims that the deployments are needed to thwart a strategic strike from Iran as insultingly disingenuous – all the more so in light of the 2015 multilateral agreement handcuffing Iran’s development of a nuclear bomb for the foreseeable future.
Yet, the U.S.-Russia strategic balance becomes more and more precarious with the deployment of each new ABM site or warship, together with rising concerns at the possibility of a U.S. technological breakthrough. With the time window for Russian leaders to evaluate data indicating a possible U.S. nuclear strike closing, launch-on-warning becomes more likely – and so does World War III.
It is no secret that Russian leaders feel double-crossed by NATO’s steady creep eastward, but Russia’s strategic planners seemed to believe they could handle that – up to a point. That point was reached with the Feb. 22, 2014 coup d’etat in Ukraine, which Moscow viewed as one U.S.-backed regime change too many and one that installed a virulently anti-Russian government along a route historically used by foreign invaders.
On April 17, 2014, the day before Crimea was re-incorporated into Russia, Putin spoke of what motivated Russia’s strong reaction. The “more important” reason he gave was the need to thwart plans to incorporate Ukraine and Crimea into the anti-ballistic missile deployment encircling Russia.
... In his interviews with Oliver Stone (aired on Showtime as “The Putin Interviews”), Putin made the same distinction between the NATO buildup (bad enough) and ABM deployment (more dangerous still), telling Stone the ABM challenge is “a separate issue which no doubt is going to require a response from Russia.”
Putin blames your predecessors for his mistrust of Washington on this important issue. He has branded a huge mistake President Bush’s 2001 decision to exit the ABM Treaty – an agreement that sharply limited the number of permitted anti-ballistic missile sites – noting that the Treaty had been for three decades the “cornerstone of the system of national security as a whole.”
Putin’s misgivings were hardly allayed by President Obama’s ten-second pas de deux five years ago with Dmitry Medvedev in South Korea. An ABC open mike picked up their private conversation on March 26, 2012, at a summit on nuclear security in Seoul.
Obama is heard assuring then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that the missile defense issue “can be solved,” but that it was “important for him (Putin) to give me space.” President Obama asked Medvedev to tell Putin that Obama would have “more flexibility” after being re-elected. More flexibility or no, the missile defense program proceeded unabated, with Washington shunning bilateral talks.
... on Sept. 11, 2013, Putin placed an op-ed in The New York Times, titled “A plea for caution from Russia,” the last part of which he is said to have drafted himself:
“My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism …
“It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional … There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. … We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.”
Russia then played a central role in facilitating Iran’s concessions regarding the nuclear accord that President Obama considered perhaps his greatest diplomatic achievement, with the key interim agreement reached on Nov. 24, 2013. But Putin felt betrayed when Obama’s State Department helped organize the coup in Ukraine just three months later.
Since the Ukraine crisis, U.S. media and political circles have subjected Putin to an unrelenting demonization, including comparisons of him to Adolf Hitler and an over-the-top campaign to blame him for Hillary Clinton’s defeat and the Trump presidency.
Yet, while the tone of the Russia-bashing in Washington has reached hysterical levels, the Defense Intelligence Agency has just published a balanced assessment of “Russia’s Threat Perceptions,” which offers a view from Moscow’s vantage point:
“Since returning to power in 2012, Russian President Putin has sought to reassert Russia as a great power on the global stage and to restructure an international order that the Kremlin believes is tilted too heavily in favor of the United States at Russia’s expense.
“Moscow seeks to promote a multipolar world predicated on the principles of respect for state sovereignty and non-interference in other state’s internal affairs, the primacy of the UN, and a careful balance of power preventing one state or group of states from dominating the international order. …
“Moscow has sought to build a robust military able to project power, add credibility to Russian diplomacy, and ensure that Russian interests can no longer be summarily dismissed without consequence.”
'The Putin Interviews' - Oliver Stone Speaks Out!
'The Putin Interviews' - Oliver Stone Speaks Out! RonPaulLibertyReport
(in cache on INTENSO#8)
Insane militarization of US politics toward Russia. Putin would be hailed as a great politician if he wasn't the Russian president.
Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
A Former CIA Analyst Explains Why Denuclearization Is Crucial to Stabilizing U.S.-Russia Relations
Melvin Goodman, Robert Scheer
Posted by Emma Niles on Jul 7, 2017
In a new episode of “Scheer Intelligence”, host and Truthdig Editor in Chief Robert Scheer talks with Melvin Goodman [former CIA analyst] about agency failures and the future of U.S.-Russia ties.
There are too many areas of mutual interest that are much more important than most of the differences we have with Russia,” Goodman tells Scheer. “When you look at arms control, disarmament, counterterrorism, nonproliferation of strategic weaponry, the Iran situation, the North Korean situation—the United States and Russia are completely in agreement in those areas.”
“Trump is clueless about major areas of strategic substance,” Goodman continues, adding that many key members of Trump’s administration also are unfit to start a dialogue with Russia. “This is an administration with no institutional memory whatsoever. It’s incredibly pathetic.”
Rush transcript of parts with time marks:
• 9:30: Melvyn Goodman: "To the Kennedy administration and the Eisenhowwer administration anything left of center was bad. Kennedy was no different than Eisenhower on that regard. The way they looked at the Third World was: If you couldn't control the leader of a Third World country, then you have to oppose that leader. It didn;t matter if he was left or right. This was true for Eisenhower and Kennedy."
The Syrian Test of Trump-Putin Accord
By Ray McGovern, July 8, 2017
The U.S. mainstream media remains obsessed over Russia’s alleged “meddling” in last fall’s election, but the real test of bilateral cooperation may come on the cease-fire in Syria, writes ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern.
Admitting Deep-State Pre-eminence
Only in December 2016, in an interview with Matt Viser of the Boston Globe, did Kerry admit that his efforts to deal with the Russians had been thwarted by then-Defense Secretary Ashton Carter – as well as all those forces he found so difficult to align.
“Unfortunately we had divisions within our own ranks that made the implementation [of the ceasefire agreement] extremely hard to accomplish,” Kerry said. “But it … could have worked. … The fact is we had an agreement with Russia … a joint cooperative effort.
“Now we had people in our government who were bitterly opposed to doing that,” he said. “I regret that. I think that was a mistake. I think you’d have a different situation there conceivably now if we’d been able to do that.”
The Globe’s Viser described Kerry as frustrated. Indeed, it was a tough way for Kerry to end nearly 34 years in public office.
After Friday’s [July 7, 2017] discussions with President Trump, Kremlin eyes will be focused on Secretary of State Tillerson, watching to see if he has better luck than Kerry did in getting Ashton Carter’s successor, James “Mad Dog” Mattis and CIA’s latest captive-director Pompeo into line behind what President Trump wants to do.
As the new U.S.-Russia agreed-upon ceasefire goes into effect on Sunday, Putin will be eager to see if this time Trump, unlike Obama, can make a ceasefire in Syria stick; or whether, like Obama, Trump will be unable to prevent it from being sabotaged by Washington’s deep-state actors.
Atomwaffenverbot: "Bundesregierung macht sich unglaubwürdig"
Stefan Korinth, 27. März 2017
Friedensforscher Sascha Hach zu Deutschlands Weigerung, an UN-Verhandlungen zum Verbot von Atomwaffen teilzunehmen.
... Dahinter steckt eine größere Bewegung, die schon seit mehreren Jahren gewachsen ist. Also einerseits auf Regierungsseite, vor allem getragen durch atomwaffenfreie Staaten, die seit 2013 mehrere internationale Konferenzen veranstaltet haben zu den humanitären Auswirkung von Atomwaffen, zur Krisenreaktion in solchen Fällen und zur Frage, wie Atomwaffen völkerrechtlich geregelt sind. Auf der anderen Seite wird sie von einem breiten zivilgesellschaftlichen Bündnis unterstützt. Die atomwaffenfreien Staaten sind bei diesen Konferenzen zu dem Schluss gekommen, dass nicht nur die Atomwaffenstaaten selber von den Auswirkungen betroffen wären und dass es keine angemessenen Krisenreaktionsmechanismen gibt. Atomwaffen sind aus ihrer Sicht mit dem humanitären Völkerrecht nicht vereinbar und es besteht für sie deshalb dringender Handlungsbedarf, hier eine völkerrechtliche Lücke zu schließen, um Atomwaffen als letzte noch nicht verbotene Massenvernichtungswaffe zu ächten.
... Die grundlegenden Ziele sind herausgebildet: dass das Verbot eben nicht nur die Weitergabe von Atomwaffen beinhalten soll, so wie es der Atomwaffensperrvertrag tut, sondern auch die Entwicklung, die Herstellung, den Besitz und den Einsatz delegitimiert.
... Zum einen würde es einen Gegenpol zur aktuellen Debatte schaffen. Denn momentan geht es ja stark in Richtung Aufrüstung und Modernisierung. Die Atomwaffenstaaten fahren die Investitionen rauf, aber auch die Rhetorik, auch die Drohung mit ihren Atomwaffenarsenalen. Das heißt, wenn es die anderen Staaten schaffen, einen Ächtungsvertrag zu beschließen, dann zeigen sie in dieser Debatte um Atomwaffen nochmal in eine ganz andere Richtung. Und können damit auch die aktuelle Aufrüstungs- und Eskalationsdynamik bremsen. Das ist unsere Erwartung.
Darüber hinaus ist so eine völkerrechtliche Ächtungsnorm hilfreich, um diplomatischen und politischen Druck für nukleare Abrüstung auszuüben. Das heißt, die Atomwaffenstaaten, wenn sie nicht beim Vertrag dabei sind, davon gehen wir jetzt mal aus, wären als solche delegitimiert. Wenn eine UN-Konferenz einen Verbotsvertrag macht, dann ist das natürlich ein spürbarer Angriff auf die Reputation und die Legitimität der Atomwaffenstaaten und ihren privilegierten Status. ...
... Klar hingegen ist, dass Deutschland offiziell an der Abschreckungspolitik der NATO teilnimmt und Mitglied der nuklearen Planungsgruppe innerhalb der Nato ist. Außerdem stellt Deutschland über die einfache Stationierung der US-Atomwaffen auf deutschem Staatsgebiet hinaus auch Trägersysteme bereit - Tornados - sowie Personal der Bundeswehr für die Wartung, aber auch für den Fall eines Einsatzes. Deutschland nimmt also sehr aktiv an der Abschreckungs- und Nuklearpolitik der Nato teil. Deutschlands Rolle im Gesamtprozess und die jetzige Verweigerung, bei einem Atomwaffenverbot mit zu verhandeln, erklärt sich natürlich auch durch diese Beteiligung an der Nato-Abschreckungspolitik. ... Durch den Nato-Vertrag ist kein Staat verpflichtet, an der Abschreckungspolitik teilzunehmen oder gar die Stationierung von Atomwaffen auf seinem Territorium zu akzeptieren. Das ist tatsächlich eine Frage des politischen Willens.
... Es gab politischen Druck vonseiten der USA [auf Deutschland, sich an der Nato-Atomwaffenpolitik zu beteiligen]. Im Vorfeld der Abstimmung in der Generalversammlung im letzten Jahr hat sich die US-Regierung an alle Nato-Mitgliedstaaten gewandt und sie sehr eindringlich dazu aufgefordert, im Sicherheitsinteresse der Allianz einstimmig gegen Verhandlungen und gegen ein Atomwaffenverbot zu stimmen. Diesem Druck hat sich die Bundesregierung gebeugt - und, das kann man so sagen, sich hier zum Vasallen der USA gemacht (Offener Brief (Cache) an den neuen Außenminister Gabriel).
...Über Lösungsstrategien oder Akteure, die sich für Abrüstungs- und Entspannungspolitik einsetzen, wird hingegen [in der Presse] kaum berichtet.
Dass auch über diese Verhandlungen, die jetzt in New York beginnen und über diese politische Bewegung, die im Schatten der westlichen Öffentlichkeit in Gang gesetzt wurde, so wenig informiert wird, zeigt, dass die Berichterstattung zum Thema Atomwaffen gerade sehr unausgeglichen ist.
... Atomwaffen bedeuten eben Macht, Überlegenheit, Status, Wettbewerb - das sind anscheinend die Gründe. Wenn man sich anschaut, wie die Weltordnung durch Atomwaffen untermauert wird, merkt man, dass Atomwaffen eine ganz andere macht- und geopolitische Rolle haben als es die anderen Massenvernichtungswaffen hatten.
... Die jüngsten Zahlen stammen aus einer Umfrage von 2016. Laut einer Forsa-Erhebung stimmen 93 Prozent der Bundesbürger für ein Atomwaffenverbot. 85 Prozent haben sich für einen Abzug der Atomwaffen aus Deutschland ausgesprochen. Und 88 Prozent waren gegen eine Modernisierung der Atomwaffen, die in Deutschland stationiert sind. Das ist eine ganz klare Haltung der deutschen Öffentlichkeit. Auch wenn wir mit Bürgern in Kontakt kommen, bin ich noch keinem begegnet, der es für gut hielte, dass sich Deutschland nuklear bewaffnet.
Trotzdem gab es in der jüngsten Debatte einzelne Stimmen, darunter auch Politiker, die sich dafür aussprachen. Ich glaube, die haben keine große Chance, in der deutschen Bevölkerung auf positive Resonanz zu stoßen. Es ist traurig, mitanzusehen, dass sich auch solche Institutionen wie die Bundesakademie für Sicherheitspolitik, ein sicherheitspolitischer Think-Tank der Bundesregierung, an dieser Debatte beteiligt und das mit einer sehr unkritischen Haltung gegenüber Atomwaffen.
... Die Federführung für die Teilnahme der Bundesregierung an [den UN-]Verhandlungen [zum Verbot von Atomwaffen] hat der Außenminister. Und die Entscheidung hat unserer Kenntnis nach auch Bundesaußenminister Steinmeier kurz vor der abschließenden Abstimmung im Dezember getroffen. Aber wir wissen auch, dass er vonseiten des Verteidigungsministeriums und des Bundeskanzleramtes hierfür Unterstützung erhalten hat. Das Bundeskanzleramt soll sich eindeutig gegen eine Teilnahme an Verhandlungen ausgesprochen haben.
Diese Haltung steht im Widerspruch zur Abrüstungsrhetorik des aktuellen Außenministers und der Bundesregierung. Sie versucht sich gerade abzugrenzen gegenüber den Muskelspielen bestimmter Staatenführer in den USA oder in der Türkei und will sich als besonnener Akteur in der Weltpolitik profilieren, der sich Frieden, Entspannung und Abrüstung verpflichtet fühlt. Das ist natürlich überhaupt nicht glaubwürdig, wenn sie in der Frage von Atomwaffen nicht mal bereit ist, an Gesprächen zur Abrüstung teilzunehmen.
Celebration as UN adopts historic nuclear weapons ban
Tim Wright, 10 JULY 2017
.... The treaty prohibits its state parties from
It also prohibits them from
A nation that possesses nuclear weapons may join the treaty, so long as it agrees to remove them from operational status immediately and destroy them in accordance with a legally binding, time-bound plan. One that hosts another nation’s nuclear weapons on its territory may also join the treaty on condition that it will remove them by a specified deadline.
With close to 15,000 nuclear weapons remaining in the world—and efforts underway in all nuclear-armed nations to bolster their arsenals—the ultimate goal of eliminating this paramount threat to humanity is far from being realized. But now, the United Nations has established the foundations for making a nuclear-weapon-free world possible.
The treaty establishes a powerful norm that, many expect, will prove transformative. It closes a major gap in international law. Nuclear weapons—like other indiscriminate weapons, including biological and chemical weapons, anti-personnel landmines and cluster munitions—are now categorically and permanently banned.
After the nuclear weapons ban treaty: A new disarmament politics
Zia Mian, 7 JULY 2017
Article I of the treaty states that each state party undertakes never under any circumstances to:
Hiroshima survivor speaks as U.N delegates vote to prohibit nuclear weapons
Published on Jul 8, 2017
Setsuko Thurlow, an A-bomb survivor who lives in Canada, speaks at the United Nations headquarters in New York on July 7, where a conference voted to adopt a legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear weapons, leading towards their total elimination. The video was taken by Ryuichi Kanari of The Asahi Shimbun
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons, with the goal of leading towards their total elimination. It was passed on 7 July 2017. In order to come into effect, signature and ratification by at least 50 countries is required. For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the
of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.
On 7 July 2017 – following a decade of advocacy by ICAN and its partners – an overwhelming majority of the world’s nations adopted a landmark global agreement to ban nuclear weapons, known officially as the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. It will enter into legal force once 50 nations have signed and ratified it.
Prior to the treaty’s adoption, nuclear weapons were the only weapons of mass destruction not subject to a comprehensive ban, despite their catastrophic, widespread and persistent humanitarian and environmental consequences. The new agreement fills a significant gap in international law.
It prohibits nations from developing, testing, producing, manufacturing, transferring, possessing, stockpiling, using or threatening to use nuclear weapons, or allowing nuclear weapons to be stationed on their territory. It also prohibits them from assisting, encouraging or inducing anyone to engage in any of these activities.
A nation that possesses nuclear weapons may join the treaty, so long as it agrees to destroy them in accordance with a legally binding, time-bound plan. Similarly, a nation that hosts another nation’s nuclear weapons on its territory may join, so long as it agrees to remove them by a specified deadline.
Nations are obliged to provide assistance to all victims of the use and testing of nuclear weapons and to take measures for the remediation of contaminated environments. The preamble acknowledges the harm suffered as a result of nuclear weapons, including the disproportionate impact on women and girls, and on indigenous peoples around the world.
The treaty was negotiated at the United Nations headquarters in New York in March, June and July 2017, with the participation of more than 135 nations, as well as members of civil society. It opened for signature on 20 September 2017. It is permanent in nature, and will be legally binding on those nations that join it.
As [the Trump administration’s UN ambassador Nikki] Haley put it, “We have to be realistic, is there anyone who thinks that North Korea would ban nuclear weapons?” Fortunately, more than 3,700 scientists, including 30 Nobel Laureates and a former Secretary of Defense, ignored her and signed an open letter supporting the negotiations. [Lawrence J. Korb, The nuclear ban treaty: A missed US opportunity that can be redeemed in September, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 10 July 2017].
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
... The German section of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) highlighted Article 1, 2a prohibiting any stationing of nuclear weapons on their own territory. Hence, several NATO states – Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Turkey – would have to end contracts on nuclear sharing with the USA before they possibly could sign the negotiated ban treaty. Already in 2010, the German Bundestag had decided with large majority to withdraw nuclear bombs from Germany, but it was never realized. By contrast, in June 2017 foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel confirmed again nuclear stationing in Germany as well as the principle of equilibrium nuclear deterrence against Russia. He stated that consequently Germany could not support the ban process.
The Stalemate Machine: A Schematic Summary
Pages 132 - 135 in Papers on the War
by Daniel Ellsberg, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1972
The following imputed Presidential decision guidelines (A, below) will, under crisis conditions of the Vietnam conflict as perceived by Washington decision-makers, lead to policy choices and Executive performance conforming in some detail to those actually obtaining at major escalation points (not necessarily to behavior in between them) between 1950 - 68. (Presidential choices significantly escalating U.S. involvement have occurred, in fact, only in crisis situations of impending failure.)
Together with decisions between major escalations, institutional consequences (including consequences for expectations), and external factors - mainly, GVN and DRV/VC behavior operating over time - these rules will generate an evolution of policy, involvement, and conflict very close to that observed over that period (B, C, and D below).
A. Presidential Decision Rules in Crisis
Do not lose South Vietnam to Communist control - or appear likely to do so - before the next election.
Do not, unless essential to satisfy Rule 1 in the immediate crisis or an earlier one:
Do choose actions that will:
(°) roughly in order shown under Rule 2, though, for example, any adjacent pair may be reversed, depending on judgement and circumstances.
EU erkennt überraschend „Grundlage der Kooperation“ mit Russland
Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 12.07.17 01:45 Uhr
Russland und die Europäische Union wollen einen neuen Anlauf starten, um ihre außenpolitische Zusammenarbeit zu stärken. Obwohl beide Seiten nicht bei allen Themen dieselben Positionen teilten, sei eine „Grundlage zur Kooperation“ zu erkennen, sagte die EU-Außenbeauftragte Federica Mogherini nach einem Treffen mit Russlands Außenminister Sergej Lawrow am Dienstag in Brüssel. Es sei notwendig, regelmäßige Kontakte zu unterhalten.
Es sei aus Sicht der EU „unerlässlich“, wo immer dies möglich sei, zusammenzuarbeiten, sagte die EU-Außenbeauftragte nach mehrstündigen Gesprächen mit Lawrow. Dabei ging es Mogherini zufolge neben Syrien auch um die Krise in Libyen, die Vereinbarung mit dem Iran, die Spannungen in der Golf-Region, den Friedensprozess im Nahen Osten und die Lage in Nordkorea und in der Ukraine.
Lawrow sagte laut TASS, er hoffe, dass sich die Beziehungen zwischen Russland und der EU wieder normalisieren würden. Als Nachbarn hätten beide Seiten ein Interesse an guten Beziehungen. Er habe daher der Bitte Mogherinis zu einem Treffen sofort entsprochen. Lawrow hielt sich in Belgien auf, wodurch das Gespräch möglich geworden sei. Auch Lawrow unterstützte die Idee von regelmäßigen Kontakten.
OSZE-Treffen: Sebastian Kurz fordert Annäherung zwischen Russland und EU
Quelle: Reuters © Reuters, 11.07.2017 • 19:29 Uhr
Der OSZE-Vorsitzende Sebastian Kurz empfängt den russischen Außenminister Sergej Lawrow. Bei einem informellen Treffen der OSZE am Dienstag in Österreich sprachen sich Vertreter der Organisation für eine Annäherung zwischen Russland und der EU aus. In Europa könne es Frieden nur mit Russland geben. Das Blockdenken müsse überwunden werden.
Intel Vets Challenge ‘Russia Hack’ Evidence
July 24, 2017 (in cache)
In a memo to President Trump, a group of former U.S. intelligence officers, including NSA specialists, cite new forensic studies to challenge the claim of the key Jan. 6 “assessment” that Russia “hacked” Democratic emails last year.
MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Was the “Russian Hack” an Inside Job?
Forensic studies of “Russian hacking” into Democratic National Committee computers last year reveal that on July 5, 2016, data was leaked (not hacked) by a person with physical access to DNC computers, and then doctored to incriminate Russia.
... Independent analyst Skip Folden, a retired IBM Program Manager for Information Technology US, who examined the recent forensic findings, is a co-author of this Memorandum. He has drafted a more detailed technical report titled “Cyber-Forensic Investigation of ‘Russian Hack’ and Missing Intelligence Community Disclaimers,” and sent it to the offices of the Special Counsel and the Attorney General. VIPS member William Binney, a former Technical Director at the National Security Agency, and other senior NSA “alumni” in VIPS attest to the professionalism of the independent forensic findings.
The recent forensic studies fill in a critical gap. Why the FBI neglected to perform any independent forensics on the original “Guccifer 2.0” material remains a mystery – as does the lack of any sign that the “hand-picked analysts” from the FBI, CIA, and NSA, who wrote the “Intelligence Community Assessment” dated January 6, 2017, gave any attention to forensics.
NOTE: There has been so much conflation of charges about hacking that we wish to make very clear the primary focus of this Memorandum. We focus specifically on the July 5, 2016 alleged Guccifer 2.0 “hack” of the DNC server. In earlier VIPS memoranda we addressed the lack of any evidence connecting the Guccifer 2.0 alleged hacks and WikiLeaks, and we asked President Obama specifically to disclose any evidence that WikiLeaks received DNC data from the Russians [see here and here].
Addressing this point at his last press conference (January 18), he described “the conclusions of the intelligence community” as “not conclusive,” even though the Intelligence Community Assessment of January 6 expressed “high confidence” that Russian intelligence “relayed material it acquired from the DNC … to WikiLeaks.”
Obama’s admission came as no surprise to us. It has long been clear to us that the reason the U.S. government lacks conclusive evidence of a transfer of a “Russian hack” to WikiLeaks is because there was no such transfer. Based mostly on the cumulatively unique technical experience of our ex-NSA colleagues, we have been saying for almost a year that the DNC data reached WikiLeaks via a copy/leak by a DNC insider (but almost certainly not the same person who copied DNC data on July 5, 2016).
From the information available, we conclude that the same inside-DNC, copy/leak process was used at two different times, by two different entities, for two distinctly different purposes:
The Time Sequence
June 12, 2016: Assange announces WikiLeaks is about to publish “emails related to Hillary Clinton.”
June 15, 2016: DNC contractor Crowdstrike, (with a dubious professional record and multiple conflicts of interest) announces that malware has been found on the DNC server and claims there is evidence it was injected by Russians.
June 15, 2016: On the same day, “Guccifer 2.0” affirms the DNC statement; claims responsibility for the “hack;” claims to be a WikiLeaks source; and posts a document that the forensics show was synthetically tainted with “Russian fingerprints.”
We do not think that the June 12 & 15 timing was pure coincidence. Rather, it suggests the start of a pre-emptive move to associate Russia with anything WikiLeaks might have been about to publish and to “show” that it came from a Russian hack.
The Key Event
July 5, 2016: In the early evening, Eastern Daylight Time, someone working in the EDT time zone with a computer directly connected to the DNC server or DNC Local Area Network, copied 1,976 MegaBytes of data in 87 seconds onto an external storage device. That speed is many times faster than what is physically possible with a hack.
It thus appears that the purported “hack” of the DNC by Guccifer 2.0 (the self-proclaimed WikiLeaks source) was not a hack by Russia or anyone else, but was rather a copy of DNC data onto an external storage device. Moreover, the forensics performed on the metadata reveal there was a subsequent synthetic insertion – a cut-and-paste job using a Russian template, with the clear aim of attributing the data to a “Russian hack.” This was all performed in the East Coast time zone. ...
FOR THE STEERING GROUP, VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY
William Binney, former NSA Technical Director for World Geopolitical & Military Analysis; Co-founder of NSA’s Signals Intelligence Automation Research Center
Skip Folden, independent analyst, retired IBM Program Manager for Information Technology US (Associate VIPS)
Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq & Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
Larry C Johnson, CIA & State Department (ret.)
Michael S. Kearns, Air Force Intelligence Officer (Ret.), Master SERE Resistance to Interrogation Instructor
John Kiriakou, Former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former Senior Investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Linda Lewis, WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret.)
Lisa Ling, TSgt USAF (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Edward Loomis, Jr., former NSA Technical Director for the Office of Signals Processing
David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Ray McGovern, former U.S. Army Infantry/Intelligence officer and CIA analyst
Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East, CIA
Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
Cian Westmoreland, former USAF Radio Frequency Transmission Systems Technician and Unmanned Aircraft Systems whistleblower (Associate VIPS)
Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
Sarah G. Wilton, Intelligence Officer, DIA (ret.); Commander, US Naval Reserve (ret.)
Ann Wright, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat
‘Zero evidence’ that Russia hacked DNC, says NSA whistleblower (VIDEO)
Published time: 8 Nov, 2017 18:07
Edited time: 9 Nov, 2017 11:34
NSA whistleblower William Binney spoke to RT about his recent meeting with CIA director Mike Pompeo, where they discussed accusations that Russia meddled in 2016 US presidential election by hacking the Democrats.
In an interview with RT America host Ed Schultz on Wednesday, Binney said tests have “clearly showed” the DNC was not hacked by Russia before the 2016 presidential election, but that the data was downloaded locally.
Binney met with CIA director Mike Pompeo on Wednesday to review analysis by the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), which challenged the notion that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) was hacked by Russia. In a letter to President Donald Trump, the group claims the “data was leaked (not hacked) by a person with physical access to DNC computers.”
After analyzing the data, VIPS concluded that the transfer simply does not support the claim the documents were hacked by Russian agents, as leaders of the US intelligence community claimed in a January report.
Binney also spoke with RT's Neil Harvey on Wednesday.
During the meeting, Binney shared test findings gleaned on the transfer rate of data, which he said “clearly showed that it was a local download and not an international hack.”
“It was very clear it was a local download, because of the speeds and all,” Binney said, explaining how his colleagues set up a test between a data center in New Jersey and another in the UK, and could not reproduce the download that took place on July 5, 2016.
The approximately 16Gbits [1,976 Megabytes] of data was downloaded in two bursts, totaling 87 seconds, with a 12-minute pause between them.
“It had to be done locally,” Binney told RT America.
The data logs and the speed test were the only concrete evidence available for examination, he pointed out. “Everything else is speculation, and agenda- and emotionally-driven assertions.”
NSA whistleblower told CIA director DNC leak was inside job, not Russian hack
If the intelligence community had some factual evidence proving Russian hacking, that would be another matter, the NSA whistleblower said, but “so far they’ve produced nothing.”
When asked who could have been behind the leak, Binney said it may have been an “inside job,” but he couldn’t attribute it to anybody in particular, because “we never knew who did the download, or whether or not it went anywhere else.”
President John F. Kennedy presented aerial surveillance photos of Soviet missiles in Cuba during the 1962 missile crisis, Binney pointed out. Reagan presented Japanese radio intercepts of orders to shoot down the Korean airliner in 1983. No such evidence has been offered for the hacking accusation, though many lawmakers have described it as an act of war.
“They need to put up or shut up,” said Binney. He said he does not buy into such claims without any factual evidence, “and that’s basically what their situation is. They have zero evidence.”
However, if there was an agency who would be able to detect if the DNC was hacked, it would be the NSA, Binney said.
“If anybody did anything across the net, NSA has so many taps on the fiber network inside the US and around the world and so many traceroute programs embedded by the hundreds around the network, they would know where these packets went,” Binney told RT America.
The NSA and FBI “know a lot more than they're telling the president,” Binney added.
The analysis from VIPS implies the intelligence community is not telling the Trump administration what really happened, Binney said. They don’t want the American people to hear the truth either, he added.
“They’re hiding this. They keep the population ignorant, uninformed so they can manipulate them any way they want,” Binney said. “This is the same thing the mainstream media is doing.”
Mainstream media outlets have branded the VIPS analysis as “disputed,” “fringe,” or a “conspiracy theory” (Washington Post, NBC, and CNN respectively) while failing to apply the same level of skepticism to the US intelligence community narrative.
On Wednesday, the NSA whistleblower was repeatedly called Binney a “conspiracy theorist” in a CNN article about the meeting.
“That’s basically showing the shallow weakness of their argument,” Binney said. “They produce no facts whatsoever and simply throw labels at people to do character assassination.”
NSA whistleblower told CIA director DNC leak was inside job, not Russian hack
Published time: 8 Nov, 2017 14:51 Edited time: 9 Nov, 2017 11:33
A Leak or a Hack? A Forum on the VIPS Memo
A letter from dissenting members of VIPS, a reply from VIPS, and the results of our independent review
By Various Contributors, SEPTEMBER 1, 2017
Quoted below are the first 3 paragraphs of the reply (in cache) from William Binney, Skip Folden, Ed Loomis, Ray McGovern, Kirk Wiebe
on the dissenting memo (in cache) written by Thomas Drake, Lisa Ling, Cian Westmoreland, Philip M. Giraldi, and Jesselyn Radack
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT
BY WILLIAM BINNEY, SKIP FOLDEN, ED LOOMIS, RAY MCGOVERN, AND KIRK WIEBE
We Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) scientists make our technical judgments based on given facts and do not speculate without a factual basis. The main issue here is: Who gave the DNC e-mails to WikiLeaks? “Handpicked” analysts from three intelligence agencies “assess” that the Russians hacked into the DNC, but provide no hard evidence for this.
We think back to the evidence-free “assessments” 15 years ago before the attack on Iraq. Several “high-confidence” intelligence judgments had been fraudulently “fixed” to dovetail with the Bush/Cheney agenda for war. In June 2008, the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee released a bipartisan report five years in the making. Mincing no words, he wrote: “In making the case for war, the Administration repeatedly presented intelligence as fact when in reality it was unsubstantiated, contradicted, or even non-existent.”
We worry that this may be happening again. Adding to our concern, in recent years we have seen “false-flag” attacks carried out to undergird a political narrative and objective—to blame the Syrian government for chemical attacks, for example. Forensic evidence suggests that this tried-and-tested technique (in this instance, simply pasting in a Russian template with “telltale signs”) may have been used to “show” that Russia hacked into the DNC computers last June.
For more than a year, we have been pointing out that any data acquired by a hack would have had to come across the Internet. The blanket coverage of the Internet by the NSA, its UK counterpart GCHQ, and others would be able to produce copies of that data and show where the data originated and where it went. But US intelligence has produced no evidence that hacking by Russia led to it acquiring the DNC e-mails and passing them on to WikiLeaks. ...
William Binney was a civilian employee of the National Security Agency from 1970 to 2001. He held numerous positions, including technical director of the World Geopolitical and Military Analysis Reporting Group; Operations Directorate analysis skill field leader; member of the NSA Senior Technical Review Panel; chair of the Technical Advisory Panel to the Foreign Relations Council; co-founder of the SIGINT Automation Research Center; NSA representative to the National Technology Alliance Executive Board; and technical director of the Office of Russia, as well as working as a senior analyst for Warning for over 20 years. After retiring, Binney blew the whistle on the unconstitutional surveillance programs run by the NSA. His outspoken criticism led to an early-morning FBI raid on his home in 2007. Even before Edward Snowden’s whistle-blowing, Binney publicly revealed that the NSA had access to telecommunications companies’ domestic and international billing records, and that since 9/11 the agency has intercepted some 15 to 20 trillion domestic communications. The documents released by Edward Snowden confirmed many of the surveillance dangers about which Binney had been warning under both the Bush and Obama administrations.
Skip Folden (Associate VIPS) retired from IBM after 25 years. His last position there was as IBM program manager for information technology, US.
Ed Loomis is a former NSA technical director for the Office of Signals Processing. From 1996 to 2001, he led the SIGINT Automation Research Center. He retired in 2001 as senior cryptologic computer scientist after 37 years at the agency. He worked for the NSA as an enterprise senior system architect from 2002 to 2007 following retirement, and he was professionally certified in multiple fields at the NSA: mathematician, computer systems analyst, operations research analyst, and system acquisition manager. Loomis applied technical knowledge and experience in developing automated systems focused on producing intelligence supporting military operations and top US decision-makers from 1964 to 2001.
Ray McGovern worked as a CIA analyst under seven presidents and nine CIA directors after serving as a US Army infantry/intelligence officer in the 1960s, McGovern. His concentration was on Russia, one of the foreign posts in which he served. He was chief of the CIA’s Foreign Policy Branch in the 1970s and acting national intelligence officer for Western Europe in the ’80s. He prepared the President’s Daily Brief for Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Reagan. During Reagan’s first term, McGovern conducted the early-morning CIA substantive briefings, one-on-one, to the president’s five most senior foreign-policy advisers. At retirement, he was awarded the Intelligence Commendation Medallion for “especially meritorious service,” but gave it back in March 2006 to dissociate himself from an agency engaged in torture. After retirement, he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.
Kirk Wiebe is a former senior analyst at the SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA. He led the center’s response to National Security Decision Directive 178, ordering the NSA to develop a program to counter the threat posed by foreign relocatable targets, which earned him the DCI’s National Meritorious Unit Citation. Wiebe was awarded the NSA’s second-highest honor, the Meritorious Civilian Service Award, together with numerous other awards for work on the challenges of digital-age strategic planning. He held the NSA’s professional certification as a Russian linguist.
Live links to VIPS memos can be found at consortiumnews.com/vips-memos.
CIA DIRECTOR MET ADVOCATE OF DISPUTED DNC HACK THEORY — AT TRUMP’S REQUEST
Duncan Campbell, James Risen
November 7 2017, 3:11 p.m.
Guccifer 2.0 NGP/VAN Metadata Analysis
August 24, 2017
Based on the analysis that is detailed below, the following key findings are presented:
Macron’s Maneuvers on the New Cold War
by Dennis J Bernstein, July 26, 2017
Official Washington’s hawks are blocking President Trump’s desired detente with Russia, but that has opened a path for France’s new President Macron to mediate the New Cold War, Diana Johnstone tells Dennis J Bernstein.
PBS’ Anti-Russia Propaganda Series
by Rick Sterling, July 27, 2017 (in cache)
PBS has joined the anti-Russia propaganda stampede with a five-part documentary series that recycles the false and deceptive claims that have become Official Washington’s dangerous new groupthink, reports Rick Sterling.
Episode 1: “How Putin Redefined what it means to be Russian”
In this episode, the documentary:
Episode 2: “Inside Russia’s Propaganda Machine.”
In this episode, the documentary:
Episode 3: “Why are so many from this Russian republic fighting for Isis?”
In this episode, the documentary:
Episode 4: “The Deadly Risk of Standing up to Putin”
In this episode, the documentary:
Episode 5: “What Russians think about Trump and the U.S.”
Based on the content, the final episode should be titled “What the U.S. establishment and media thinks of Putin and Russia.” In this episode, the documentary:
The PBS documentary “Inside Putin’s Russia” aims to expose Russian repression, aggression and disinformation. As shown in the many examples above, the five-part documentary is highly biased and inaccurate. While it shows some features of Russia, it also demonstrates American propaganda in the current tumultuous times.
The Dawn of an Orwellian Future
by Robert Parry, July 28, 2017
Exclusive: The U.S. mainstream media continues to spread its own “fake news,” like the falsehood about an intelligence community “consensus” on Russia-gate “hacking,” as algorithms begin to marginalize dissent, reports Robert Parry.
A report by the World Socialist Web Site found that “in the three months since Internet monopoly Google announced plans to keep users from accessing ‘fake news,’ the global traffic rankings of a broad range of left-wing, progressive, anti-war and democratic rights organizations have fallen significantly.”
Google’s strategy is to downgrade search results for targeted Web sites based on a supposed desire to limit reader access to “low-quality” information, but the targets reportedly include some of the highest-quality alternative news sites on the Internet, such as – according to the report – Consortiumnews.com.
Google sponsors the First Draft Coalition, which was created to counter alleged “fake news” and consists of mainstream news outlets, including the Times and The Washington Post, as well as establishment-approved Web sites, such as Bellingcat, which has a close association with the anti-Russia and pro-NATO Atlantic Council.
This creation of a modern-day Ministry of Truth occurred under the cover of a mainstream-driven hysteria about “fake news” and “Russian propaganda” in the wake of Donald Trump’s election.
Last Thanksgiving Day, the Post ran a front-page article citing accusations from an anonymous Web site, PropOrNot, that identified 200 Web sites — including such Internet stalwarts as Truthdig, Counterpunch and Consortiumnews — as purveyors of “Russian propaganda.”
Apparently, PropOrNot’s standard was to smear any news outlet that questioned the State Department’s Official Narrative on the Ukraine crisis or some other global hot spot, but the Post didn’t offer any actual specifics of what these Web sites had done to earn their place on a McCarthyistic blacklist.
Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy (2007)
by Vladimir Putin, February 10, 2007 (in cache)
... I consider that the unipolar model is not only unacceptable but also impossible in today’s world. And this is not only because if there was individual leadership in today’s – and precisely in today’s – world, then the military, political and economic resources would not suffice. What is even more important is that the model itself is flawed because at its basis there is and can be no moral foundations for modern civilisation. ...
Today we are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force – military force – in international relations, force that is plunging the world into an abyss of permanent conflicts. As a result we do not have sufficient strength to find a comprehensive solution to any one of these conflicts. Finding a political settlement also becomes impossible.
We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are, as a matter of fact, coming increasingly closer to one state’s legal system. One state and, of course, first and foremost the United States, has overstepped its national borders in every way. This is visible in the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this?
In international relations we increasingly see the desire to resolve a given question according to so-called issues of political expediency, based on the current political climate.
And of course this is extremely dangerous. It results in the fact that no one feels safe. I want to emphasise this – no one feels safe! Because no one can feel that international law is like a stone wall that will protect them. Of course such a policy stimulates an arms race.
The force’s dominance inevitably encourages a number of countries to acquire weapons of mass destruction. Moreover, significantly new threats – though they were also well-known before – have appeared, and today threats such as terrorism have taken on a global character.
I am convinced that we have reached that decisive moment when we must seriously think about the architecture of global security.
And we must proceed by searching for a reasonable balance between the interests of all participants in the international dialogue. Especially since the international landscape is so varied and changes so quickly – changes in light of the dynamic development in a whole number of countries and regions.
Madam Federal Chancellor already mentioned this. The combined GDP measured in purchasing power parity of countries such as India and China is already greater than that of the United States. And a similar calculation with the GDP of the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – surpasses the cumulative GDP of the EU. And according to experts this gap will only increase in the future.
There is no reason to doubt that the economic potential of the new centres of global economic growth will inevitably be converted into political influence and will strengthen multipolarity.
In connection with this the role of multilateral diplomacy is significantly increasing. The need for principles such as openness, transparency and predictability in politics is uncontested and the use of force should be a really exceptional measure, comparable to using the death penalty in the judicial systems of certain states. ...
Oliver Stone Defends His Putin Interviews
By Dennis J Bernstein, July 31, 2017
Director Oliver Stone saw his four-part interviews with Russian President Putin as a way to give Americans a better understanding of a leader who has been demonized in the mainstream media, reports Dennis J Bernstein.
Dennis Bernstein: The corporate mainstream reporting on the Ukraine has been amazing.
Oliver Stone: It is an historical inaccuracy. If you read the accounts at the time in the Washington Post and the New York Times, there was zero coverage from the other side. Reporters were dismissing these stories as conspiracy theories and this was “on the day of.” It was so evidently a coup, the Europeans knew it. Yet, in the United States, we seemed, as we often do, to be blissfully ignorant of the other side of the story.
We are looking for some justification for restarting the Cold War. It was almost as if we were back to confronting the Soviet Union again. We have been stalking Putin since he starting putting the economy back together again. Around 2004 you start to see the earliest criticism of him as a dictator and an embezzler, and so on.
And talk about meddling in elections, Putin was understated when he said that the United States was all over the Russian election in 2012. We have a clip of [Assistant] Secretary of State Victoria Nuland saying how we were trying to do all this good work in Russia, etc. We were blatantly interfering in their election. In 1996 we completely rigged the election for Yeltsin. He was so unpopular after four years in office that the communists were poised to take back the government. We arranged for him to get a gigantic loan from the IMF, among other things.
... Putin talked with me at length about nuclear parity. I don’t think most Americans realize that when Bush abrogated the non-proliferation treaty in 2001 we were removing one of the principal cornerstones of our national security. And then we put the ABM [Anti-Ballistic Missile] in Poland and more recently in Romania.
In 2009 Obama announced that we would be spending trillions of dollars to modernize our nuclear arsenal, and now Trump declares that we are going to win the next war. It is frightening as hell to the Russians. Putin pointed out that they currently have one-tenth of our military budget. All kinds of horrors could be in store if the United States tries to press its advantage with nuclear weapons.
... Putin is well aware that the media in this country never really brings across what he is trying to say. I have been very impressed with his speeches. For example, the theme of his 2007 Munich [Security Conference] speech is still very relevant. He saw what was going on in the world, with our invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. That speech was never really reported here in the United States. It is disgraceful that we cannot take an important foreign leader seriously and report his own words.
Endangering a Landmark Nuclear Treaty
By Jonathan Marshall, August 6, 2017
Official Washington’s political game of heightening tensions with nuclear-armed Russia to get better control of President Trump could destroy a landmark nuclear arms control treaty, as Jonathan Marshall explains.
Playing Politics with the World’s Future
By Alastair Crooke, August 6, 2017
The strategy of neutering President Trump in his dealings with Russia – and his administration’s own ignorance about complex Mideast issues – are combining to create grave dangers, writes ex-British diplomat Alastair Crooke
... Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev wrote in response:
“The signing of new sanctions against Russia into law by the U.S. president leads to several consequences.
“What does this mean for the U.S.? The American establishment completely outplayed Trump. The President is not happy with the new sanctions, but he could not avoid signing the new law. The purpose of the new sanctions was to put Trump in his place. Their ultimate goal is to remove Trump from power.” .
... Polls indicate
The point here is that the Republican support for Trump’s desire for détente with Russia has not eroded one jot, whereas the “concern” of the Independents and even among Democrats is eroding somewhat.
Neocons Leverage Trump-Hate for More Wars
By Robert Parry, August 5, 2017
Exclusive: The enactment of new sanctions against Russia and Iran – with the support of nearly all Democrats and Republicans in Congress – shows how the warmongering neocons again have come out on top, reports Robert Parry.
How the World May End
By John Pilger, August 4, 2017
Republicans and Democrats – along with a complicit mainstream media – are plunging ahead toward war with Russia, a mad groupthink that could end life on the planet, observes John Pilger.
The War on WikiLeaks and Assange
August 4, 2017
Helping government authorities discredit Julian Assange and destroy WikiLeaks, mainstream media outlets twisted a recent interview to make Assange look like a Donald Trump backer, write Randy Credico and Dennis J Bernstein.
‘American public doesn’t share establishment’s hostility towards Russia’ – Reagan's adviser
by SophieCo, Published time: 13 Mar, 2017 07:24 (in cache, cached video of interview: INTENSO#8)
We ask a former adviser to President Ronald Reagan on Russian affairs, Russia scholar and author – Suzanne Massie.
... I happen to care a great deal for Russia and I have for many years, and I have always maintained the exact position from the beginning and that is you have a lot to give us and we have a lot to give you. We should be together, because together we could do a great deal more than we can do apart for the rest of the world. That's been my position. If they [the Trump adminsitration] ever wanted to talk to me about that, I would be happy.
The American public is very-very different from what is now being heard in the U.S. It comes from Washington and it comes from some of the media. Much good stuff exists on the Internet if you want to look for it, but the great public and I say that, basically, sometimes, even Russia forgets that Washington is not the U.S. any more than Paris is the whole France. We have other places and I have been saying: instead of trying to concentrate all the time on Washington you should be concentrating on other places in the United States. Now, I have given lectures in every state of the United States except Alaska and Hawaii, and I have seen the same thing and I've done it now for about 20 years - the same thing. The American people, the public, is always very curious about you, they always want to know, they always say to me: why Russia, why did I go and study Russia? They ask questions, they are always curious and they are not hostile. Americans, even up in Maine, not even Maine, which is a state of fishermen and boat-builders and you know, even the men who came to plough our snow the night before I left - said exactly the same thing as I'm saying to you: "We should be together". "You know" - he kept saying - "You know, I don't like what they're saying, the press". And that is the fact. So I wouldn't take too seriously the things that are said now in limited ways, and say that the public feels that way. No American I have ever met would like to have a war with you.
Das neue Wettrüsten
ein Artikel in DIE ZEIT von Matthias Naß | 29. Oktober 2016 (im Cache)
The NYT’s Yellow Journalism on Russia
By Robert Parry, September 15, 2017 (in cache)
Exclusive: The New York Times’ descent into yellow journalism over Russia recalls the sensationalism of Hearst and Pulitzer leading to the Spanish-American War, but the risks to humanity are much greater now.
For one, even if the U.S. government were to succeed in destabilizing nuclear-armed Russia sufficiently to force out President Putin, the neocon dream of another malleable Boris Yeltsin in the Kremlin is far less likely than the emergence of an extreme Russian nationalist who might be ready to push the nuclear button rather than accept further humiliation of Mother Russia.
The truth is that the world has much less to fear from the calculating Vladimir Putin than from the guy who might follow a deposed Vladimir Putin amid economic desperation and political chaos in Russia. But the possibility of nuclear Armageddon doesn’t seem to bother the neocon/liberal-interventionist New York Times. Nor apparently does the principle of fair and honest journalism.
The Times and rest of the mainstream media are just having too much fun hating Russia and Putin to worry about the possible extermination of life on planet Earth.
Did Manning Help Avert War in Iran?
By Robert Parry (Originally published on Aug. 19, 2013), January 25, 2017 (in cache)
From the Archive: Though President Obama commuted Chelsea Manning’s prison sentence, he showed no appreciation for her brave disclosures, including one that undercut war plans with Iran, Robert Parry reported in 2013.
Clinton, Assange and the War on Truth
By John Pilger, October 20, 2017
Australia’s public broadcasting network gave Hillary Clinton an open mike to defame WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange as “a tool of Russian intelligence” without giving him a chance to respond.
FERGUSON: How much of that was a personal vendetta by Vladimir Putin against you?
CLINTON: … I mean he wants to destabilize democracy. He wants to undermine America, he wants to go after the Atlantic Alliance and we consider Australia kind of a … an extension of that …
(The opposite is true. It is a combination of Western armies massing on Russia’s border for the first time since the Russian Revolution 100 years ago.)
(What Clinton fails to say – and her interviewer fails to remind her – is that in 2010, WikiLeaks revealed that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had ordered a secret intelligence campaign targeted at the United Nations leadership, including the Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon and the permanent Security Council representatives from China, Russia, France and the U.K. A classified directive, signed by Clinton, was issued to U.S. diplomats in July 2009, demanding forensic technical details about the communications systems used by top U.N. officials, including passwords and personal encryption keys used in private and commercial networks. This was known as Cablegate. It was lawless spying.)
CLINTON: He [Assange] is very clearly a tool of Russian intelligence. And, ah, he has done their bidding.
(Clinton offered no evidence to back up this serious accusation, nor did Ferguson challenge her.)
CLINTON: You don’t see damaging negative information coming out about the Kremlin on WikiLeaks. You didn’t see any of that published.
(This was false. WikiLeaks has published a massive number of documents on Russia – more than 800,000, most of them critical, many of them used in books and as evidence in court cases.)
“Libya was Hillary Clinton’s war,” Julian Assange said in a filmed interview with me last year. “Barack Obama initially opposed it. Who was the person championing it? Hillary Clinton. That’s documented throughout her emails … there’s more than 1,700 emails out of the 33,000 Hillary Clinton emails that we’ve published, just about Libya. It’s not that Libya has cheap oil. She perceived the removal of Gaddafi and the overthrow of the Libyan state — something that she would use in her run-up to the general election for President.
“So in late 2011 there is an internal document called the Libya Tick Tock that was produced for Hillary Clinton, and it’s the chronological description of how she was the central figure in the destruction of the Libyan state, which resulted in around 40,000 deaths within Libya; jihadists moved in, ISIS moved in, leading to the European refugee and migrant crisis.
von Hillary Rodham Clinton
Look inside the book
Getting the Left to Embrace US ‘Exceptionalism’
By James W. Carden, October 24, 2017
Exclusive: Neocons have deftly used the Left’s hatred of President Trump and the demonizing of Russia to lure liberals and progressives into an interventionist mindset to defend “American exceptionalism".
... In the end, the ideology of American Exceptionalism feeds delusions of American Innocence and prepares the ground for military intervention the world over. Is that really the right way to oppose Donald Trump?
Rajoys Staatsstreich beginnt!
von Prof. Dr. Axel Schönberger, Deutschland, 27. Okt. 2017 (im Cache)
Am 27. Oktober 2017 hat der ungesetzliche und verfassungswidrige Staatsstreich des spanischen Ministerpräsidenten Mariano Rajoy und des Partido Popular begonnen. Nicht mit qualifizierter, sondern mit einfacher Mehrheit legt der Partido Popular und der spanische Senat Artikel 155 der spanischen Verfassung gegen dessen Wortlaut zu einem Ermächtigungsartikel aus und erweitert ihn ohne Rechtsgrundlage zu einem Instrument für einen Staatsstreich von oben, um massiv gegen bestehendes spanisches Recht zu verstoßen. Die Verkündung der Absetzung der katalanischen Regierung und des katalanischen Parlaments, die «Auslöschung» einer Reihe von katalanischen Regierungsinstitutionen sowie die Ausschreibung von Neuwahlen in Katalonien fallen nicht in die Kompetenz des spanischen Ministerpräsidenten und sind auch nicht durch die Verfassung gedeckt, sondern verstoßen im Gegenteil eklatant gegen die spanische Verfassung und gegen spanische Gesetze, insbesondere gegen das Autonomiestatut Kataloniens, das geltendes spanisches Recht ist.
Seit Jahren hat der Partido Popular unter Führung von Mariano Rajoy darauf hingearbeitet, eine Unabhängigkeitserklärung Kataloniens geradezu zu erzwingen, um so endlich die ihm und seiner postfranquistischen Partei unliebsamen katalanischen Institutionen ausschalten zu können. Wie kaum ein anderer hat er die Lage polarisiert und Katalonien geradezu herausgefordert. Schon sind aus seiner Partei die ersten Rufe zu vernehmen, die Anwendung des Artikels 155 auch auf das Baskenland anzuwenden. Nicht ohne Eigeninteresse versuchte daher der Präsident des Baskenlandes am 26. Oktober 2017 noch ein letztes Mal zwischen Madrid und Barcelona zu vermitteln. Der katalanische Präsident Carles Puigdemont, der sich stets dialogbereit zeigte, wäre hierzu trotz Widerstands in den eigenen Reihen offenbar auch bereit gewesen und hätte Neuwahlen in Katalonien für den Dezember des Jahres 2017 ausgeschrieben – wozu nach spanischem Recht nur er und keinesfalls die Zentralregierung in Madrid befugt ist –, wenn denn die spanische Regierung und der spanische Senat im Gegenzug von der beabsichtigten Anwendung des Artikels 155 der spanischen Verfassung auf Katalonien abgesehen hätten. Die spanische Regierung war dazu jedoch nicht bereit, sondern erklärte sogar, daß der Artikel 155 in jedem Fall auf Katalonien angewandt würde. Damit ließ sie Katalonien keinen anderen Weg, als die vom katalanischen Volk beschlossene Unabhängigkeit am 27. Oktober 2017 feierlich zu verkünden. Seit dem 27. Oktober 2017 existiert nunmehr Katalonien kraft Völker- und Naturrecht als eigenes völkerrechtliches Subjekt. Damit endete die von Franco eingeführte Monarchie in Katalonien. ...
Nach Verhör von Twitter durch US-Kongress: Keine Hinweise auf russische Wahleinmischung
Russia Today, 30.09.2017 (im Cache)
Nicht "faschistisches Russland", sondern Twitter hat US-Wahlkampf manipuliert
Russia Today, 3.11.2017 (im Cache)
Israel’s Ploy Selling a Syrian Nuke Strike
By Gareth Porter, November 18, 2017 (in cache)
Exclusive: The Iraq WMD fiasco wasn’t the only time political pressure twisted U.S. intelligence judgments. In 2007, Israel sold the CIA on a dubious claim about a North Korean nuclear reactor in the Syrian desert.
Technical Evidence against a Reactor
Egyptian national Yousry Abushady was a PhD in nuclear engineering and 23-year veteran of the IAEA who had been promoted to section head for Western Europe in the operations division of agency’s Safeguards Department, meaning that he was in charge of all inspections of nuclear facilities in the region. He had been a trusted adviser to Bruno Pellaud, IAEA Deputy Director General for Safeguards from 1993 to 1999, who told this writer in an interview that he had “relied on Abushady frequently.”
Abushady recalled in an interview that, after spending many hours reviewing the video released by the CIA in April 2008 frame by frame, he was certain that the CIA case for a nuclear reactor at al-Kibar in the desert in eastern Syria was not plausible for multiple technical reasons. The Israelis and the CIA had claimed the alleged reactor was modeled on the type of reactor the North Koreans had installed at Yongbyon called a gas-cooled graphite- moderated (GCGM) reactor.
But Abushady knew that kind of reactor better than anyone else at the IAEA. He had designed a GCGM reactor for his doctoral student in nuclear engineering, had begun evaluating the Yongbyon reactor in 1993, and from 1999 to 2003 had headed the Safeguards Department unit responsible for North Korea.
Abushady had traveled to North Korea 15 times and conducted extensive technical discussions with the North Korean nuclear engineers who had designed and operated the Yongbyon reactor. And the evidence he saw in the video convinced him that no such reactor could have been under construction at al-Kibar.
On April 26, 2008, Abushady sent a “preliminary technical assessment” of the video to IAEA Deputy Director General for Safeguards Olli Heinonen, with a copy to Director General Mohamed ElBaradei. Abushady observed in his memorandum that the person responsible for assembling the CIA video was obviously unfamiliar with either the North Korean reactor or with GCGM reactors in general.
The first thing that struck Abushady about the CIA’s claims was that the building was too short to hold a reactor like the one in Yongbyon, North Korea.
“It is obvious,” he wrote in his “technical assessment” memo to Heinonen, “that the Syrian building with no UG [underground] construction, can not hold a [reactor] similar [to] NK GCR [North Korean gas-cooled reactor].” Abushady estimated the height of the North Korean reactor building in Yongbyon at a 50 meters (165 feet) and estimated that the building at al-Kibar at a little more than a third as tall.
Abushady also found the observable characteristics of the al-Kibar site inconsistent with the most basic technical requirements for a GCGM reactor. He pointed out that the Yongbyon reactor had no less than 20 supporting buildings on the site, whereas the satellite imagery shows that the Syrian site did not have a single significant supporting structure.
The most telling indication of all for Abushady that the building could not have been a GCGM reactor was the absence of a cooling tower to reduce the temperature of the carbon dioxide gas coolant in such a reactor.
... Yet another critical piece that Abushady found missing from the site was a cooling pond facility for spent fuel. The CIA had theorized that the reactor building itself contained a “spent fuel pond,” based on nothing more than an ambiguous shape in an aerial photograph of the bombed building.
But the North Korean reactor at Yongbyon and all 28 other GCGM reactors that had been built in the world all have the spent fuel pond in a separate building, Abushady said. The reason, he explained, was that the magnox cladding surrounding the fuel rods would react to any contact with moisture to produce hydrogen that could explode.
But the definitive and irrefutable proof that no GCGM reactor had been present at al-Kibar came from the environmental samples taken by the IAEA at the site in June 2008. Such a reactor would have contained nuclear-grade graphite, Abushady explained, and if the Israelis had actually bombed a GCGM reactor, it would have spread particles of nuclear-grade graphite all over the site.
Behrad Nakhai, a nuclear engineer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for many years, confirmed Abshuady’s observation in an interview. “You would have had hundreds of tons of nuclear-grade graphite scattered around the site,” he said, “and it would have been impossible to clean it up.”
Manipulated and Misleading Photographs: ....
by Robert S. McNamara and James G. Blight, 2001 (excerpts)
The FBI Hand Behind Russia-gate
By Ray McGovern, January 11, 2018
Special Report: In the Watergate era, liberals warned about U.S. intelligence agencies manipulating U.S. politics, but now Trump-hatred has blinded many of them to this danger becoming real, as ex-CIA analyst Ray McGovern notes.
Thanks to the almost 10,000 text messages between Strzok and Page, only a small fraction of which were given to Congress four weeks ago, there is now real evidentiary meat on the bones of the suspicions that there indeed was a “deep-state coup” to “correct” the outcome of the 2016 election. We now know that the supposedly apolitical FBI officials had huge political axes to grind.
... the official release of unguarded text messages between FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok (former chief of the FBI’s counterintelligence section) and his girlfriend, FBI lawyer Lisa Page ...
The Department of Justice Inspector General reportedly has additional damaging texts from others on the team that Special Counsel Robert Mueller selected to help him investigate Russia-gate.
Besides forcing the removal of Strzok and Page, the text exposures also sounded the death knell for the career of FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, in whose office some of the plotting took place and who has already announced his plans to retire soon.
the FBI text messages provid[e] documentary evidence that key FBI officials involved in the Russia-gate investigation were indeed deeply biased and out to get Trump ..
... Peter Strzok (pronounced “struck”) has an interesting pedigree with multiple tasks regarding both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. As the FBI’s chief of counterespionage during the investigation into then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s unauthorized use of a personal email server for classified information, Strzok reportedly changed the words “grossly negligent” (which could have triggered legal prosecution) to the far less serious “extremely careless” in FBI Director James Comey’s depiction of Clinton’s actions. This semantic shift cleared the way for Comey to conclude just 20 days before the Democratic National Convention began in July 2016, that “no reasonable prosecutor” would bring charges against Mrs. Clinton.
Then, as Deputy Assistant Director of the Counterintelligence Division, Strzok led the FBI’s investigation into alleged Russian interference in the U.S. election of 2016. It is a safe bet that he took a strong hand in hand-picking the FBI contingent of analysts that joined “hand-picked” counterparts from CIA and NSA in preparing the evidence-free, Jan. 6, 2017 assessment accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of interfering in the election of 2016.
... In June and July 2017 Strzok was the top FBI official working on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into possible links between the Trump campaign and Russia, but was taken off that job when the Justice Department IG learned of the Strzok-Page text-message exchange and told Mueller.
... Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-New York, with almost four decades of membership in the House and Senate, openly warned incoming President Trump in January 2017 against criticizing the U.S. intelligence community because U.S. intelligence officials have “six ways from Sunday to get back at you” if you are “dumb” enough to take them on.
The Strzok-Page exchanges drip with disdain for Trump and those deemed his smelly deplorable supporters. In one text message, Strzok expressed visceral contempt for those working-class Trump voters, writing on Aug. 26, 2016, “Just went to a southern Virginia Walmart. I could SMELL the Trump support. … it’s scary real down here.”
The FBI Lost 5 Months Worth of Text Messages Between Anti-Trump Agents
By Timothy Meads, Townhall.com, Jan 21, 2018 3:40 PM
The Daily Caller [an extreme right wing news website, according to John Kiriakou] reports that the FBI “failed to preserve five months of text messages" exchanged between two anti-Trump FBI employees who may have compromised on going investigations such as the Clinton e-mail scandal and the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election.
The Daily Caller’s Chuck Ross reports that “The disclosure was made Friday in a letter sent by the Justice Department to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC).
'The Department wants to bring to your attention that the FBI’s technical system for retaining text messages sent and received on FBI mobile devices failed to preserve text messages for Mr. Strzok and Ms. Page,' Stephen Boyd, the assistant attorney general for legislative affairs at the Justice Department, wrote to Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, the chairman of HSGAC
He said that texts are missing for the period between Dec. 14, 2016 and May 17, 2017.”
Comment by William Binney (in Brian Becker, John Kiriakou, "Democrats Surrender to Trump; Gov't Reopens, No Action for Immigrants", time mark 66:40 - 69:00 LOUD & CLEAR, SputnikNews, 23.01.2018): "I'd say the random probability [of this being an accidental technical system failure, which the FBI is insinuating] is zero, simply because if they are going to delete the evidence within the FBI they also, since it's text messenges, it's going across the net, they also have to delete it [a duplicate of the text message] in NSA, in both those agencies. Since in both cases it's data relevant to an investigation that kind [of accidental technical system failure] is virtually impossible randomly. ... It's a conspiracy to cover up the crime, which ... John Kiriakou: which at the very, very least is obstruction of justice ... William Binney: Yeah, that's right, and also it [the deletion] is a criminal act by violating the Records Act. They should never have had that data, and if they took our ThinThread program they would never have had it to begin with. So they couldn't have violated it [the Records Act, by deleting the data in several independent places].
John Kiriakou: What we are talking about here is government oversight. We're talking about the Congressional Oversight Committee. ...The Oversight Committee should have been so deeply involved in this issue that it would have been impossible to delete the information, because they would have been all over it, let alone to delete it 3 or 4 separate times.
Der weiße Elefant
Von Konstantin von Hammerstein, Christiane Hoffmann, Peter Müller, Otfried Nassauer, Christoph Schult und Klaus Wiegrefe,
Der Spiegel 50/2016, 10.12.2016 (im Cache)
english verson: Konstantin von Hammerstein, Christiane Hoffmann, Peter Müller, Otfried Nassauer, Christoph Schult and Klaus Wiegrefe, "Elephant in the Room - Europeans Debate Nuclear Self-Defense after Trump Win", Spiegel-Online International, 9 Dec. 2016 (im Cache)
US-Atomwaffen sind der ultimative Garant für Europas Sicherheit. Doch was, wenn Trump den Nuklearschirm infrage stellt? In Berlin und Brüssel hat das Nachdenken begonnen.
Seit Jahrzehnten wird der Schutz gegen eine mögliche russische Aggression in letzter Instanz durch das amerikanische Atomwaffenarsenal garantiert. Doch seit der Wahl Donald Trumps zum 45. Präsidenten der Vereinigten Staaten ist man sich in Brüssel und Berlin nicht mehr sicher, ob Washington auch künftig seine schützende Hand über Europa halten wird.
... Doch was, wenn dem künftigen Präsidenten eine viel grundlegendere Wende der amerikanischen Sicherheitspolitik vorschwebt? Was, wenn er den Nuklearschirm infrage stellt, der während des Kalten Krieges Europas Sicherheit garantierte?
Mehr als 60 Jahre lang hat Deutschland seine Sicherheit der Nato und ihrer Führungsmacht, den Vereinigten Staaten, anvertraut. Ohne glaubwürdige Abschreckung wären die europäischen Nato-Staaten einer möglichen russischen Bedrohung ausgeliefert. Es wäre das Ende des transatlantischen Bündnisses.
... In europäischen Hauptstädten hat seit dem Wahlsieg Trumps das Nachdenken über eine europäische nukleare Abschreckung begonnen. Die militärischen, politischen und völkerrechtlichen Hürden sind riesig, konkrete Absichten oder gar Pläne gibt es nicht. Doch in Brüssel tauschten sich bereits französische Diplomaten mit ihren Kollegen aus anderen Mitgliedstaaten aus: Könnten Franzosen und Engländer mit ihren Nukleararsenalen einspringen, um Länder wie Deutschland zu schützen?
"Gut, dass darüber endlich gesprochen wird", sagt Jan Techau, Direktor des Holbrooke Forum an der American Academy in Berlin. "Die Frage des künftigen nuklearen Schutzes Europas ist der weiße Elefant im Raum der europäischen Sicherheitsdebatte. Wenn die nukleare Sicherheitsgarantie der USA wegfällt, ist es wichtig zu klären: Wer schützt uns künftig? Und: Wie vermeiden wir, dass wir künftig nuklear erpressbar sind?"
Falls Trump ernstlich die amerikanischen Garantien infrage stelle, müsse Berlin überlegen, auf der Basis der französischen und britischen Kapazitäten einen europäischen Nuklearschirm zu entwickeln, heißt es in einem Aufsatz in der November-Ausgabe von "Foreign Affairs". Und die "FAZ" räsonierte in einem Leitartikel sogar über das "Undenkbare": die deutsche Bombe.
... Doch die Debatte hat die geschützten Zirkel von Thinktanks und Fachzeitschriften längst verlassen. Der Obmann der Unionsfraktion im Auswärtigen Ausschuss des Bundestags Roderich Kiesewetter schlug in einem international beachteten Interview schon Mitte November einen französisch-britischen Nuklearschirm vor, falls Trump den amerikanischen Schutz für Europa infrage stellen sollte. "Wenn die USA keine nuklearen Sicherheitsgarantien mehr für Europa abgeben wollen, braucht Europa trotzdem einen nuklearen Schirm", so Kiesewetter. ... Man müsse sich, so Kiesewetter, auf alle Eventualitäten vorbereiten. "Es darf für unsere Sicherheit keine Denkverbote geben." Der CDU-Sicherheitspolitiker ist Oberst a. D. und diente unter anderem in der Nato-Zentrale in Brüssel und im militärischen Hauptquartier der Allianz im belgischen Mons. Nach der Trump-Wahl führte er nicht nur Gespräche mit französischen und britischen Diplomaten. Er fühlte auch in der Bundesregierung vor.
Kiesewetter sagt, er habe mit Merkels Sicherheitsberater Christoph Heusgen und mit dem Politischen Direktor im Verteidigungsministerium, Gésa von Geyr, geredet. Für die Regierung sei das kein Thema, heißt es aus beiden Häusern. Kiesewetter hatte allerdings nicht den Eindruck, dass seine Ideen als Fantastereien abgetan wurden.
European nuclear deterrence in the era of Putin and Trump
Felix Wimmer, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, 8 JANUARY 2018 (in cache)
... Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has called the collapse of the Soviet Union “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” now takes any measure available to him to reverse the European order created after 1989. He perceives the extension of Western values and security through the European Union and NATO as a direct threat to Russia’s position on the continent. Putin seeks to destabilize the European community through propaganda and the financial support of illiberal, anti-European, and pro-Russian parties. In Eastern Europe, he is also increasingly comfortable with using force to achieve his goals, such as preventing Ukraine from developing closer ties with the European Union.
Putin will not be satisfied anytime soon. He “is intent on showing the world [that] Russia is a great power and that he respects strength and takes advantage of perceived weakness. He pushes forward until there is pushback,” writes Robert A. Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
At a July 2017 forum on Capitol Hill, Brad Roberts, director of the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, explained how Putin’s “theory of victory” against the United States and its allies is built on his perception of Western weakness and hesitation. In 2014, Putin was convinced that the West would let him get away with annexing Crimea and practically invading eastern Ukraine, and he remains convinced that he will not encounter any significant pushback in the future. This belief is rooted in Putin’s view of what Roberts calls the “asymmetry of stake”: Because the Russians have more at stake, Russian threats look more credible than American threats. While Putin is fighting for Russia’s position in the world and, more importantly, his position as the legitimate leader of Russia, all that is at stake for the West is the preservation of liberal values. While the Americans might be willing to defend freedom and democracy with sanctions, they will not resort to bullets and bombs.
In Putin’s mind, the Russian nuclear arsenal ensures that the West stays out of his affairs. According to Alexey Arbatov, a Russian expert on international security and arms control, Putin is largely ignoring the nuclear lessons of the Cold War, and views arms control more critically than the Soviet leadership did. While Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev agreed with US President Ronald Reagan that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” Putin does not voice similar reservations. In Arbatov’s formulation, as Roberts described it at last year’s forum, Putin and a small cadre of fellow Russian elites are ready to use the Western fear of a nuclear confrontation to their benefit. Putin is absolutely confident that, should things get serious, the Americans would back down first.
... Advocates of the Eurodeterrent, such as the German politician Roderich Kiesewetter, propose that French and perhaps British nuclear weapons should replace the American bombs currently stationed in Europe. The new system would either function similarly to the existing nuclear-sharing program, or a new European military organization would be established to oversee the weapons. In either case, the Eurodeterrent is thought to rely mainly on French weapons and German funding. All this could supposedly be done without proliferation, since the current nuclear arsenals of France and the UK “would likely be sufficient for defending Germany,” according to Jan Techau at the American Academy in Berlin. Although the European arsenal would be dwarfed by Russia in numbers, France possesses the second-strike capability that is crucial for deterrence.
... However, European leaders have to plan for the worst. They have to be prepared to deal with possible further fractures, or even an end of the alliance; they have to be prepared for an even more belligerent Russia. Anything else would be naēve.
By Max Blumenthal, The Real News Network, Jan. 18, 2018
Known as a bastion of neo-Nazism, the Azov Battalion has received teams of American military advisors and high powered US-made weapons
Made in Texas, tested by Azov
The story of how American arms began flowing towards the Nazi-inspired militia began in October 2016, when the Texas-based AirTronic company announced a contract to deliver $5.5 million dollars worth of PSRL-1 rocket propelled grenade launchers to “an Allied European military customer.” In June 2017, photos turned up on Azov’s website showing its fighters testing PSRL-1 grenade launchers in the field. The images raised questions about whether Ukraine was AirTronic’s unnamed “customer.”
Two months later, the pro-Russian military analysis site Southfront published a leaked contract indicating that 100 PSRL-1 Launchers worth $554,575 — about 1/10th of the total deal — had been produced in partnership with a Ukrainian arms company for distribution to the country’s fighting units.
In an interview last December with the US-backed Voice of America, AirTronic Chief Operating Officer Richard Vandiver emphasized that the sale of grenade launchers was authorized through “very close coordination with the U.S. Embassy, with the U.S. State Department, with the U.S. Pentagon and with the Ukrainian government.”
Finally, this January, the transfer of the lethal weapons to Azov was confirmed by the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRL). Aric Toler, a DFRL researcher, asserted that “the US Embassy did absolutely help facilitate this transfer, and I'm not sure if they were aware that Azov would be the first to train with them.”
As NATO’s de facto lobbyist in Washington, and one of the most fervent advocates in Washington for arming the Ukrainian military, the Atlantic Council was an extremely unlikely source for such a disclosure. While the think tank’s motives for exposing Azov’s use of American arms remains unclear, its researchers wound up highlighting a truly scandalous episode of semi-covert American support for neo-Nazis.
Los Alamos Study Group
Recent News Media
Greg Mello (Secretary and Executive Director, co-founder, Los Alamos Study Group, led LSG since 1989) in Dr. Strangelove Returns: Analyzing the New US Nuclear Policy, Radio Sputnik, Brian Becker and John Kiriakou hosts, Washington, 6 February 2018 (06:05 - 08:00)
"A lot what is in this review has already been US policy for a long time. It just wasn't emphasized. So, Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) was not the idea behind a lot of US nuclear arsenal - that was kind of a myth. ... People have been beavering all the time trying to figure out how to win nuclear wars, and that is how our arsenal is structured. There has always been the threat to use nuclear weapons in response to say a cyberattack, an attack on the [electric] grid. All of that was there under Obama - it just wasn't emphasized much, but it was discussed a lot. And that is what we mean by not forswearing a first strike with nuclear weapons. There is always some reason to have a first strike whether it's a non-nuclear perceived attack on the United States or -more likely- a potential defeat of US forces abroad somewhere. So, the idea that we would use nuclear weapons first in a conflict or because of some other circimstancces has a lot of detail behind it that has always been there. So, I'm a little concerned right now that a lot of the people who are most critical of the Trump Nuclear Posture Review were actually in favor of ... Former officials who are critical of the Trump Nuclear Posture Review were actually in favor of most of those policies in the recent past."
(Greg Mello (Secretary and Executive Director) is a co-founder of the Study Group and has led its varied activities since 1989, which have included policy research, environmental analysis, congressional education and lobbying, community organizing, litigation, advertising, and the nuts and bolts of running a small nonprofit. From time to time Greg has served as a consulting analyst and writer for other nuclear policy organizations. Greg was originally educated as an engineer (Harvey Mudd College, 1971) and regional planner (Harvard, 1975). Greg led the first environmental enforcement at Los Alamos National Laboratory. He was a hydrogeologist for the New Mexico Environment Department and later a consultant to industry. In 2002 Greg was a Visiting Research Fellow at Princeton's Program on Science and Global Security. Greg's research, analysis, and opinions have been published in the New York Times, Washington Post, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Issues in Science and Technology, in the New Mexico press, and elsewhere. Source: Los Alamos Study Group)
Kevin Kamps (Beyond Nuclear)
Understanding Russia, Un-Demonizing Putin
By Sharon Tennison, February 6, 2018 (in cache)
... I’ve been in country [Russia] long enough to reflect deeply on Russian history and culture, to study their psychology and conditioning, and to understand the marked differences between American and Russian mentalities which so complicate our political relations with their leaders.
As with personalities in a family or a civic club or in a city hall, it takes understanding and compromise to be able to create workable relationships when basic conditionings are different. Washington has been notoriously disinterested in understanding these differences and attempting to meet Russia halfway.
In addition to my personal experience with Putin, I’ve had discussions with numerous U.S. officials and American businessmen who have had years of experience working with him –– I believe it is safe to say that none would describe him as “brutal” or “thuggish,” or the other slanderous terms used to describe him in Western media.
I met Putin years before he ever dreamed of being president of Russia, as did many of us working in St. Petersburg during the 1990s. Since the anti-Putin vilification started, I’ve become nearly obsessed with understanding his character. I think I’ve read every major speech he has given (including the full texts of his annual hours-long telephone “talk-ins” with Russian citizens).
I’ve been trying to ascertain whether he has changed for the worse since being elevated to the presidency, or whether he is a straight character cast into a role of villain that he never anticipated –– and is using sheer wits to try to do the best he can to deal with Washington under extremely difficult circumstances. ...
Psychologists tell us that people often project on to others what they don’t want to face in themselves. Others carry our “shadow” when we refuse to own it. We confer on others the very traits that we are horrified to acknowledge in ourselves.
Whether we can answer these questions with any certainty, one thing I am quite sure of is that 99% of those who excoriate Putin in mainstream media have had no personal contact with him at all. They write articles on hearsay, rumors and fabrication, or they read scripts others have written on their tele-prompters. This is how our nation gets its “news,” such as it is.
There is a well-known code of ethics worth bearing in mind:
It seems to me that if our nation’s leaders would commit to using these four principles in international relations, the world would operate in a completely different manner, and human beings across this planet would live in better conditions than they do today.
The author can be contacted at email@example.com.
What you need to know about the Nuclear Posture Review
Newsletter of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, 7 February 2018
The experts on the new Nuclear Posture Review
On February 2, the Pentagon rolled out the unclassified version of the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review. The 2018 document contains significant changes over the last NPR, which was completed in 2010. The Bulletin will be publishing analyses of the NPR document itself and how it might be implemented.
It is anticipated that the United States will generally seek to increase the accuracy of its nuclear weapons in order to lower the yield of modified warheads with improved performance margins.
The most significant change is what appears to be a shift away from seeking to reduce the number and role of nuclear weapons in US military strategy. Instead, the Trump NPR has a more confrontational tone and presents an assertive posture that seeks to increase reliance on nuclear weapons. This includes
To achieve that, the NPR declares that “the United States will enhance the flexibility and range of its tailored deterrence options… Expanding flexible U.S. nuclear options now, to include low-yield options, is important for the preservation of credible deterrence against regional aggression,” the NPR claims.
The new tailored capabilities include, in the short term, modifying “a small number” of W76-1 warheads on the Trident II D5LE submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) to “ensure a prompt response option that is able to penetrate adversary defenses.” This new capability, the NPR claims, is necessary to “help counter any mistaken perception of an exploitable ‘gap’ in U.S. regional deterrence capabilities.” The authors of the NPR appear to be under the mistaken impression that Russia believes the United States would not use nuclear weapons if Russia did.
Read the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review
Pentagon press briefing of the 2018 NPR rollout
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris
Since 1987, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has published the Nuclear Notebook, an authoritative accounting of world nuclear arsenals compiled by top experts from the Federation of American Scientists. Today, it is prepared by Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris of FAS. The Nuclear Notebook is housed at Taylor & Francis Online, home of our digital journal. Because of its importance to researchers, governments, and citizens around the world, the Nuclear Notebook is always free-to-access. Click on the individual links below to read the corresponding link at tandfonline.
4 MAY 2018, NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK
Russian nuclear forces, 2018
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris
Russia is in the second half of a decades-long modernization of its strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces to replace Soviet-era weapons with newer systems. These modernizations, combined with an increase in the number and size of military exercises and occasional explicit nuclear threats against other countries, contribute to uncertainty about Russia’s long-term intentions and growing international debate about the nature of its nuclear strategy. These concerns, in turn, drive increased defense spending, nuclear modernization programs, and political opposition to further nuclear-weapon reductions in Western Europe and the United States.
As of early 2018, we estimate that Russia has a stockpile of roughly 4,350 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. Of these,
4 MARCH 2018, NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK
United States nuclear forces, 2018
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris
The US nuclear arsenal remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Defense Department maintaining an estimated stockpile of some 4,000 warheads to be delivered via ballistic missiles and aircraft. Most of these warheads are not deployed but stored, and many are destined to be retired.
Nuclear Posture Review:
... The most significant change is what appears to be a shift away from seeking to reduce the number of US nuclear weapons and their role in US military strategy. Instead, the Trumps review
2 JANUARY 2018, NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK
North Korean nuclear capabilities, 2018
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris
The authors cautiously estimate that North Korea
2 NOVEMBER 2017, NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK
A history of US nuclear weapons in South Korea
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris
During the Cold War, the United States deployed nuclear weapons in South Korea continuously for 33 years, from 1958 to 1991. The South Korean-based nuclear arsenal peaked at an all-time high of approximately 950 warheads in 1967.
3 SEPTEMBER 2017, NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK
Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2017
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris
The authors estimate that as of mid-2017, there are nearly 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world, located at some 107 sites in 14 countries. Roughly, 9400 of these weapons are in military arsenals; the remaining weapons are retired and awaiting dismantlement.
4 JULY 2017, ASIA NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK
Indian nuclear forces, 2017
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris
India continues to modernize its nuclear arsenal, with at least four new weapon systems now under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems.
The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner
Daniel Ellsberg, 2017 (excerpts)
The danger that either a false alarm or a terrorist attack on Washington or Moscow would lead to a preemptive attack derived almost entirely from the existence on both sides of land-based missile forces, each vulnerable to attack by the other: each, therefore, kept on a high state of alert, ready to launch within minutes of warning.
The easiest and fastest way to reduce that risk -and indeed, the overall danger of nuclear war- is to dismantle entirely (not merely "de-alert") the Minuteman III missile force (currently scheduled to "refurbishment"), the U.S. land-based leg of the nuclear "triad".Former secretary of defense William Perry has argued precisely that, as has James E. Cartwright, former commander of the Strategic Command and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCF).
A second stage would be to reduce the Trident submarine-based ballistic missile (SLBM) force to give up its capability to target and destroy the entire Russian land-based missile force (on which the Russians choose to rely far more than does the United States.) Having first deprived the Russians of their high-priority, time-urgent targets for those forces by dismantling the U.S. Minuteman silos and their control centers, the remaining incentive for the Russians to launch their ICBMs on warning -to avert their being destroyed by U.S. SLBMs- would be eliminated. Launch on warning would no longer be susceptible of being rationalized strategically on either side.....
... To suggest that these are relatively simple steps for the superpowers and others neglects the challenge of fundamentally altering the doctrine and strategy that have shaped the buildup of our strategic forces over the past 65 years. Contrary to public understanding, that strategy has not been a matter of deterrence of nuclear attack on the United States, but rather the illusionary one of improving first-strike capability. Specifically, this has involved the goal of "damage-limiting" to the United States in the event of a U.S. preemptive strike against Soviet/Russian nuclear capabilities, triggered by a warning of impending attack, possibly in the context of escalation of a conventional or limited nuclear war.
That strategy remains in force, although, as noted, the objective of limiting damage to the United States in large-scale nuclear war, or of keeping such a war with a nuclear state limited, has been essentially a hoax, infeasible to achieve for about 50 of those years -ever since the Soviets acquired SLBMs and a large force of hardened ICBMs. Even striking first, it has not been feasible to avoid the effective total destruction of U.S. society (even earlier, that was not feasible for Western Europe), by blast, heat, radiation, and fallout alone from Soviet/Russian retaliation.
Now, in light of the phenomenon of nuclear winter precipitated from cities burning from our U.S. attacks alone (aside from Soviet retaliation) there can no longer be any fig leaf of pretense that a "damage limiting" first strike by either side would be anything less than suicidal -as Alan Robock and Brian Toon have put it, "self-Assured Destruction" (SAD)- or, in fact, omnicidal. The chages I am describing mean giving up the pretense, and the supposed political and alliance advantages of maintaining the pretense, that it is possible for either auperpower to limit damage to anyone or the everyone by attacking the other with nuclear weapons, wheter first or second or in any circumstances or manner whatever.
The sole purpose of U.S. nuclear weapons should be to deter nuclear attack on the United States and its allies.That sole purpose can and should be accomplished with radically lowered numbers of U.S. nuclear weapons, almost entirely Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBWs), Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles(ICBMs) having been dismantled as they should have been generations ago. This shift would not totally eliminate the dangers of nuclear war, but it would abolish the threat of nuclear winter.
Reality Asserts Itself - Daniel Ellsberg
Paul Jay, The Real News Network, 8 Interviews, Oct. 29 - Nov. , 2018
Once Fired, There’s No Calling a Nuke Back – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (8/12)
November 15, 2018 (transcript in cache)
There are many fingers on the nuclear missiles trigger and once an attack begins, even the President can’t order it reversed, says Daniel Ellsberg on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay
U.S. Refuses to Adopt a Nuclear Weapon No First Use Pledge – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (7/12)
November 12, 2018 (transcript in cache)
Every President since Truman has used a nuclear first strike threat as leverage in U.S. foreign policy; it’s institutional insanity says Daniel Ellsberg on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay
U.S. Planned Nuclear First Strike to Destroy Soviets and China – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (6/12)
November 9, 2018 (transcript in cache)
U.S. cold-war nuclear plan called for all out attack on China, even if it was not involved in the war, says Daniel Ellsberg on Reality Itself with Paul Jay
Russian “Doomsday Machine” an Answer to U.S. Decapitation Strategy – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (5/12)
November 4, 2018 (transcript in cache)
The U.S. military still thinks that a nuclear war can be won by targeting Russian leadership in a bizarre Dr. Strangelove logic; it’s a recipe for unmitigated catastrophe, says Daniel Ellsberg on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay
The Largest Act of Terrorism in Human History – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (4/12)
November 4, 2018 (transcript in cache)
The British bombing of Hamburg in 1942, and the American firebombing of Japan in March 1945 that killed as many as 120,000 people in one night, created the conditions for the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki which were considered mere extensions of the firebombing tactics, says Daniel Ellsberg on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay
Truman Delayed End of WWII to Demonstrate Nuclear Weapons – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (3/12)
November 2, 2018 (transcript in cache)
To intimidate the Soviet Union and prove to Congress the nuclear program should be funded, Truman dropped nuclear weapons on Japan to end the war; no scientist came forward to warn of the dangers to life on earth, says Daniel Ellsberg on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay
Hitler Wouldn’t Risk Doomsday, But The United States Did – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (2/12)
October 31, 2018 (transcript in cache)
Hitler ended the German nuclear weapons program in 1942 when told it could end life on Earth—the Americans were willing to take the risk; since the end of WWII the Cold War was to a very large extent, from beginning to end, a marketing campaign for subsidization of the aerospace industry, says Daniel Ellsberg on Reality Asserts Itself with Paul Jay
The Doomsday Machine: The Big Lie of the Cold War – Daniel Ellsberg on RAI (1/12)
October 29, 2018 (transcript in cache)
On Reality Asserts Itself, Daniel Ellsberg tells host Paul Jay that US intelligence agencies knew that Stalin was not planning to invade Western Europe or seek world domination, but based on the myth, the world came close to nuclear war – and it’s all happening again.
NBC News, Feb 2, 2018 (in cache)
This is the 3.5-page memo prepared by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes. It is derived from the FBI's application for surveillance authority before the Federal Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Court.
(excerpts, [additions] and formating by J. Gruber)
This memorandum provides Members an update on significant facts relating to the Committee's ongoing investigation into
during the 2016 presidential election cycle.
Our findings, which are detailed below,
On October 21, 2016, DOJ and FBI sought and received a FISA probable cause order (not under Title VII) authorizing electronic surveillance on Carter Page from the FISC. Page is a U.S. citizen who served as a volunteer advisor to the Trump presidential campaign. Consistent with requirements under FISA, the application
The FBI and DOJ obtained one initial FISA warrant targeting Carter Page and 3 FISA renewals from the FISC.
As required by statute (50 U.S.C. § 1805(d)(1)), a FISA order on an American citizen must be renewed by the FISC every 90 days and each renewal requires a separate finding of probable cause.
Due to the sensitive nature of foreign intelligence activity, FISA submissions (including renewals) before the FISC are classified. As such, the public's confidence in the integrity of the FISA process depends on the court's ability to hold the government to the highest standard — particularly as it relates to the surveillance of American citizens. However, the FISC's rigor in protecting the rights of Americans, which is reinforced by 90-day renewals of surveillance orders, is necessarily dependent on the government's production to the court of all material and relevant facts. This should include information potentially favorable to the target of the FISA application that is known by the government. In the case of Carter Page, the government had at least four independent opportunities before the FISC to accurately provide an accounting of the relevant facts. However, our findings indicate that, as described below, material and relevant information was omitted.
Geschichte der Ostermärsche
Bedingungsfaktoren, Wirkungsbedingungen und Auswirkungen der Ostermarsch-Bewegung
Auszug aus: 30 Jahre Ostermarsch, Ein Beitrag zur politischen Kultur der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und ein Stück Bremer Stadtgeschichte, Butterwegge, Christoph, Jochen Dressel und Ulla Voigt (Herausgeber), Bremen, Steinstor Verlag, 1990
Toward a World without Nuclear Weapons
by George P. Shultz William J. Perry Henry A. Kissinger, Sam Nunn, 2007
“Reliance on nuclear weapons...is becoming increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective.”
The Nuclear Security Project does more than just call for a world without nuclear weapons, it tackles the challenging process for getting there. in their Wall Street Journal op-eds, the 4 principals outlined the urgent and practical steps:
[Compare this with the Introduction and chapter 21 of
Daniel Ellsberg, Doomsday Machine - Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner, 2017
The declared official rationale for such a system has always been primarily the supposed need to deter -or if necessary respond to- an agressive Russian nuclear first strike against the United States. That widely believed public rationale is a deliberate deception. Deterring a surprise Soviet nuclear attack -or responding to such an attack- has never been the only or even the primary purpose of our nuclear plans and preparations. " [location of phrase]
... To suggest that these are relatively simple steps for the superpowers and others neglects the challenge of fundamentally altering the doctrine and strategy that have shaped the buildup of our strategic forces over the past 65 years. Contrary to public understanding, that strategy has not been a matter of deterrence of nuclear attack on the United States, but rather the illusionary one of improving first-strike capability. Specifically, this has involved the goal of "damage-limiting" to the United States in the event of a U.S. preemptive strike against Soviet/Russian nuclear capabilities, triggered by a warning of impending attack, possibly in the context of escalation of a conventional or limited nuclear war." [location of paragraph]
I well know that it is entirely unrealistic to hope that the present Congress (not to speak of the present president), dominated by the current Republican Party, or for that matter a Congress returned to the control of Democratic members mainly of the sort we have seen in the last generation, would respond to demands for any one of the measures I have proposed above:
Both parties as currently constituted oppose every one of these measures. This mortal predicament did not begin with Donald J. Trump, and it will not end with his departure. The obstacles to achieving these necessary changes are posed not so much by the majority of the American public – though many in recent years have shown dismaying manipulability – but by officials and elites in both parties and by major institutions that consciously support militarism, American hegemony, and arms production and sales.
Tragically, the news is equally bad when it comes to the prospects of reversing American energy policy in time and on a scale to avert catastropic climate change. Much the same institutions and elites tenaciously obstruct solution to this other existential challenge; they are, indeed, inordinately powerful. And yet, as demonstrated by the downfall of the Berlin Wall, the nonviolent dissolution of the Soviet empire, and the shift to majority rule in South Africa, all unimaginable just thirty years ago, such forces for sustaining an unjust and dangerous status quo are not all-powerful.
It is simply quixotic to hope to preserve human civilization from either the effects of burning fossil fuels or preparing for nuclear war? As Martin Luther King Jr. warned us, one year to the day before his death, „There is such a thing as being to late.“ In challenging us on April 4, 1967, to recognize „the fierce urgency of now“ he was speaking of the „madness of Vietnam,“ but he also alluded on that same occasion to nuclear weapons and to the even larger madness that has been the subject of this book: „We still have a choice today: nonviolent coexistence or violent coanniliation.“
He went on:
We must move past indecision to action. … If we do not act, we shal surely be dragged down the long, dark, and shameful corridors of time reserved for those, who possess power without compassion, might without morality, and strength without sight. … Now let us begin. Now let us rededicate ourselves to the long and bitter, but beautiful, struggle for a new world.
Daniel Ellsberg on dismantling the doomsday machine
A discussion with John Mecklin, 26 February 2018
I drafted the first part of the book really 40 years ago, just after the [Vietnam] war ended in 1975. My publisher then said they would sell 1,400 copies, which meant that they would not publish it. Really, I tried a couple of other times. There was no interest in publishing.
I spent all my time trying to help build an anti-nuclear movement, like the anti-war movement. My full-time job was in work on the bilateral nuclear weapons freeze and various other things. I was getting arrested in civil disobedience actions, 87 times up till now. I was doing that and getting interviewed a lot and speaking on this subject all the time but with no national attention, whatever, to either the arrests or the lectures or the interviews or anything like that.
Then, I actually worked on a project called Manhattan Project II. The idea was that between 1992 and 1995, the 50th anniversary of the Manhattan Project, we would do something to undo the Manhattan Project and at least develop a program for dismantling the doomsday machines. Actually, we did get a pretty good program, but almost none of it has come close to being enacted. That was back in 1995.
Then, I wrote my book Secrets: A Memoir of Vietnam and the Pentagon Papers. Then, I turned to this book, essentially. Actually, finally, to cap that story off, this book was rejected by, I think it was 17 other publishers and finally seized on by Bloomsbury enthusiastically. That's how it came about now.
It's not as though there have been no books. There have been marvelous books, like Eric Schlosser's Command and Control, a wonderful book. It did, in fact, get a lot of attention, but unfortunately, I think most of the attention went to how to make it a little less likely that nuclear accidents will occur, which is indeed a problem. But the big problem is sending off the entire arsenal of either the US or Russia, which, again, with nuclear winter, which we know about now, has the potential for ending most human life, if not all of it.
Why no media attention?
My speculative answer [to why the major media tend to almost never actually confront or describe the actual effects of a major nuclear war] would have to be that the major media have always supported basically—until quite recently perhaps—our basic nuclear arsenals. Insane as they are; they're unjustifiable, if you really look at them critically. And yet they're treated as though they are reasonable responses to the nuclear era, which they are not. Nothing reasonable about them at all.
You would not have these arsenals, in the US or elsewhere, if it were not the case that it was highly profitable to the military-industrial complex, to the aerospace industry, to the electronics industry, and to the weapons design labs to keep modernizing these weapons, improving accuracy, improving launch time, all that. The military–industrial complex that Eisenhower talked about is a very powerful influence. We’ve talked about unwarranted influence. We've had that for more than half a century.
Nuclear planners inside the US government have to know that a few hundred nuclear warheads would deter anyone from attacking.
Yes, they have said that. It's a radical statement from the point of view of our actual arsenal. Yet, when you think about it, if you talk about deterring attack, think hard. Hundreds of weapons? Are we kidding here? Would it take hundreds of operational weapons to deter a US attack using thermonuclear weapons in North Korea or Iraq or Iran—or would it take one? One might not be so reliable in terms of the possibility of eliminating it in a first strike, but how about 10, or could we get up to 30? But hundreds? Hundreds of US cities on retaliation, let's say, or dozens, scores? That's absurd. What I've been saying here and what hasn't been brought up in the past is these radical proposals of going down to 300 or 200 [nuclear warheads]—the US government doesn’t get close to supporting them—but [the proposals] themselves are enormously greater than could be justified by the one objective of deterring nuclear attack.
Hundreds of weapons—first of all, unless they're somehow all managed to be far from cities to burn, give you nuclear winter or a form of nuclear winter or nuclear famine. Even aside from that, the blast and the fallout and the radiation are of continental scale, basically, in their exterminating effects.
How then do we get to the thousands? I'll go all the way back now to 1949 and '50, when the Russians first got nuclear weapons. Suddenly, we acquired all of their possible airfields as possible targets, and then the Russian missiles [were made part of the US nuclear targeting plan]. If you want to have reliability—because our early missiles were far from reliable—you get at least two warheads for every warhead you're going after over there. Then, more [warheads] than that, if it's hard targets you're talking about.
There's only one little caveat on this process of targeting: How are you really going to keep them from having dozens, scores, or even hundreds of warheads left, as in sub-launched missiles, for example? You're not, which means that this first-strike effort, this disarming effort, is itself a real hoax when it comes to the goal of limiting damage. You're not going to limit damage. It's been infeasible for the US since the Russians had a significant number of sub-launched missiles, as I say in the book, and that was the mid ‘60s. That was half a century ago.
No promising damage limiting approach
I would say that our damage-limiting, counterforce-decapitating, highly accurate, fast-launched weapons—air-launched weapons and ICBMs and increasingly accurate sub-launched missiles, but particularly the ICBMs, which are themselves vulnerable to attack—have been totally anachronistic from a military point of view for over half a century. They can hit Soviet ICBMs or Russians ICBMs and command and control. Wonderful! Does the US survive that attack? No. It doesn’t survive attack from even a fraction of the Soviet or Russian sub-launched missiles.
... By the way, Chalmers Johnson, just before he died, who had written three books now on our empire of bases, said to me, "It's impossible to change that. It's too widely spread. It's too embedded in our political and economic systems."
... What I get from a book like
what I realize here is that year after year and decade after decade, people who have access to these plans have the same reaction that I did in '61. Which is: "Ye gods, we can do better than this. We don't have to have a plan that hits every city in Russia and China," which it was then and remained for quite a while, by the way. I've always felt that it was not really in humanity's interest to destroy the command and control, centralized, of a major nuclear power, if that left the world with scores, dozens, hundreds, even of surviving nuclear weapons that are under decentralized control. How do you ever stop the nuclear war under those conditions?
My point is, yes, people who've looked at [nuclear targeting plans], they make the same changes in the plans that I did. They never had any effect on the actual prospects of a war. You can't really get the Air Force, or for that matter probably now the Navy, from targeting what they think of as military targets in the cities. The cities do burn anyway. They can't take seriously at all the idea of not destroying the centralized command control of Moscow. By the way, Russia, it turns out, has always had the same point of view as our [military] services.
... I was participating in plans—it's true for my plans as well—for something that is only euphemistically called mass murder. “Mass” doesn't entirely convey that we're not talking about a massacre in a historic sense here, but we're talking about the annihilation of tens, hundreds of millions of people. And really billions of people. That's not an exaggeration; even aside from the smoke [that causes nuclear winter], you're talking billions of people. Mass murder doesn't quite convey that, because there is no human language that conveys it.
Nuclear genocid rather than nuclear mass murder
We don't have language, and we don't have concepts. I think going back to your earlier question of why doesn't the media or the public get this? In a way, I'm not sure humans are able to absorb emotionally or even cognitively what our current [nuclear targeting] plans would actually do, if they're carried out.
I think what one aspect here is that hardly any informed analysis of these situations has conveyed how insane and immoral this planning actually is. That's what I wanted to try to convey in my book.
A way out without risk: unilaterally dismantling all ICBMs
By the way, I notice that you have an article in the current issue on eliminating the land-based missiles, which should have been done half a century ago and every year since and hasn't been done and isn't about to be done, even though former Secretary of Defense [Bill] Perry has strongly called for that, as has General James Cartwright, former head of Strategic Command, and I think General Lee Butler, former of the first head of Strategic Command, last head of SAC, has also called for that, getting rid of the ICBMs.
Curbing a president's nuclear authority
by Janice Sinclaire, 28 FEBRUARY 2018
How a nuclear attack order is carried out now
Lisbeth Gronlund, David Wright
How to limit presidential authority to order the use of nuclear weapons
Lisbeth Gronlund, David Wright, Steve Fetter
A reminder from Hawaii
Lauren Borja, M.V. Ramana
What America can learn from Hawaii’s mistake
What We’re Reading:
Duke University's Peter Feaver on the president and US nuclear command and control
Reconsidering the nuclear demigod called Mr. President
A Republican senator calls a hearing on a Republican president’s nuclear weapons authority
Eric Schlosser on Trump's tweets and nuclear war
Can Congress stop a president waging nuclear war?
Bulletin editor John Mecklin with a Reuters op/ed
Science and Security board member Jon Wolfsthal in the New Republic
What you need to know about the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review
The 2018 Doomsday Clock Statement.
Presidential First Use of Nuclear Weapons: Is it Legal? Is it Constitutional? Is it Just? The Bulletin's Kennette Benedict and Hugh Gusterson participated in a November 4th conference at Harvard University. Watch a 6-minute video summary, and read the transcript of the day's remarks at Public Books.
VIRTUAL ROUNDTABLE ON PRESIDENTIAL FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS, BY JIM MCGOVERN, WILLIAM J. PERRY, BRUCE G. BLAIR, ROSA BROOKS, KENNETTE BENEDICT, JOHN BURROUGHS, BRUCE ACKERMAN, ZIA MIAN, HUGH GUSTERSON, & SISSELA BOK, Feb. 26.2018
Ending America’s Disastrous Role in Syria
by Jeffrey Sachs, 19 Feb 2018 (in cache)
Faced with an alarming risk of a renewed escalation of fighting, it’s time for the United Nations Security Council to step in and end the bloodshed.
America’s official narrative has sought to conceal the scale and calamitous consequences of US efforts to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. That is understandable, because US efforts are in blatant violation of international law, which bars UN member states from supporting military action to overthrow other members’ governments.
Much of the carnage that has ravaged Syria during the past seven years is due to the actions of the United States and its allies in the Middle East. Now, faced with an alarming risk of a renewed escalation of fighting, it’s time for the United Nations Security Council to step in to end the bloodshed, based on a new framework agreed by the Council’s permanent members. ...
Missile-gate: U.S. Intel Misses Russia’s Big Advances in Nuclear Parity
By Gilbert Doctorow, March 2, 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement on Thursday of major technological advances in nuclear weapons delivery systems appears to have caught the U.S. intelligence community unawares.
... And it is not only blindness to things Russian. It is a fundamental failure to grasp that state power anywhere is not dependent only on GDP and demographic trends but also on grit, patriotic determination and the intelligence of thousands of researchers, engineers and production personnel. ...
... I refer the reader to an outstanding and well documented article dating from March 2007 that was published by the European Strategic Intelligence Security Center (ESISC) entitled “Outsourcing Intelligence: The Example of the United States.”
The author, ESISC Research Associate Raphael Ramos, tells us that at the time
"Hire and Fire" im Weißen Haus
1. März 2018, 16:20 Uhr
Graphik "Hire and Fire" im Weißen Haus"
Anthony Scaramucci (entlassen)
Sally Yates (entlassen)
Travis Kalanick (zurückgetreten)
Mike Flynn (zurückgetreten)
Craig Deare (entlassen)
Katie Walsh (zurückgetreten)
Mike Dubke (ausgeschieden)
Angella Reid (entlassen)
James Comey (entlassen)
Kathleen T. McFarland (versetzt)
Robert Iger (zurückgetreten)
Elon Musk (zurückgetreten)
Walter Shaub (zurückgetreten)
Sean Spicer (zurückgetreten)
Reince Priebus (zurückgetreten)
Hope Hicks (zurückgetreten)
Kenneth C. Frazier (zurückgetreten)
Brenda Fitzgerald (zurückgetreten)
Sebastian Gorka (Amt verloren)
Stephen Bannon (Im Einvernehmen entlassen)
Carl Icahn (zurückgetreten)
Tom Price (zurückgetreten)
Keith Schiller (zurückgetreten)
David Sorensen (zurückgetreten)
Rachel Brand (zurückgetreten)
Omarosa Newman (zurückgetreten)
Taylor Weyeneth (zurückgetreten)
Andrew McCabe (zurückgetreten)
Rob Porter (zurückgetreten)
Gary Cohn (zurückgetreten)
Einige der Genannten arbeiteten bereits vor dem Amtsantritt Trumps für ihn. In diesen Fällen beziehen sich die zeitlichen Angaben dennoch auf den 20. Januar 2017, den Tag der Vereidigung. In vier Fällen kann die Zahl der Tage nicht eindeutig bestimmt werden. Hier handelt es sich deshalb um Näherungswerte, die allerdings maximal um wenige Tage von der tatsächlich Zahl abweichen können. Sie sind mit * gekennzeichnet. Fotos: Afp, dpa, Reuters, Taylor Weyeneth/LinkedIn
Details zu den Personen aus: Süddeutsche Zeitung (im Cache)
US Envoy for Ukraine Says Minsk Deal Not Working Efficiently
Sputnik International, 06.10.2017
MOSCOW, October 6 (Sputnik) — US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker believes that the Minsk agreements on the de-escalation of the Ukrainian crisis are not efficient. The US special representative for Ukraine has commented on the extension of a law on the special status of Donbass, as well as the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Volker told Gazeta.Ru news outlet that the Minsk accords had failed to put an end to armed clashes in Donbass, where people still die every week. The parties have not made any sufficient progress in enforcing the ceasefire and making concrete political steps, including holding elections in the region, Washington's representative said.
'Entirely Defensive in Nature': US Agrees to Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine
Sputnik International, 23.12.2017 (updated 21:20 10.01.2018)
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) - The US State Department said Friday that the United States plans to give Ukraine military assistance to help protect its territorial integrity, in a move that is purely defensive and will not violate Minsk accords "The United States has decided to provide Ukraine enhanced defensive capabilities as part of our effort to help Ukraine build its long-term defense capacity, to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to deter further aggression," spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement.
Earlier this week, the US State Department has approved a licensed commercial export of particular light weapons and small arms from the US manufacturers to Ukraine.
"U.S. assistance is entirely defensive in nature, and as we have always said, Ukraine is a sovereign country and has a right to defend itself. The United States remains committed to the Minsk agreements as the way forward in eastern Ukraine," the statement read.
Meantime, the United States has withdrawn favored trading status from Ukraine because Kiev authorities have failed to act vigorously enough to enforce intellectual property rights, the White House said in a press release on Friday.
Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump signed the country's defense bill, authorizing $350 million in military aid to Ukraine, half of which is conditioned on military reforms.
Meanwhile, a senior State Department official told ABC News that Washington planned to sell 210 anti-tank missiles and 35 launchers to Ukraine.
Ukraine, which has been engaged in a military conflict in the southeastern region of Donbass for three years, has repeatedly asked the United States for lethal and non-lethal weapons.
Russia has objected to this, warning that arms deliveries to Ukraine would only escalate the conflict. The move is likely to escalate the three-year crisis in the county's east. The warring parties signed a truce in February 2015 in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, brokered by Russia, Germany, France, and Ukraine. The Minsk Agreements charted a roadmap toward deescalating the fighting. Frants Klintsevich, a deputy chair of the defense and security committee at the upper house of the Russian parliament warned last month that US military aid to Ukraine could start an all-out war.
Swiss Paper Blows the Lid Off Alleged Ukraine's Secret NATO-Backed Base
Sputnik International, 04.03.2018 (updated 19:29 06.03.2018)
While Washington ostensibly supports the peaceful resolution of the Ukraine-Donbass conflict, new revelations - if true - do not add to these claims and on the contrary seem to be in sync with the approval of sending US weapons to Kiev. The Swiss newspaper Le Temps has reported about scores of US and Canadian instructors training Ukrainian servicemen at the former Soviet firing range Yavorov in western Ukraine.
The newspaper described a 26 kilometer (16 mile)-long and 19 kilometer (11,8 mile)-wide firing range as one of the most secret places in Ukraine, where the country's soldiers have been trained by foreign instructors since 2015.
The main goal of training is to significantly improve the qualification of Ukrainian army personnel, which will allow them to adapt more quickly to NATO standards and learn how to fight better, according to Le Temps.
Conducted on a permanent basis, training is based on the principle of permanent drills, which continue until the Ukrainian servicemen will be able to handle a mission against a simulated enemy.
The newspaper cited one of the Canadian instructors as saying that right now, Ukraine is not ready to join NATO and that it is unlikely to do so in the next fifteen years.
In the past three years, the Yavorov firing range has become a permanent base for about 200 American and 250 Canadian servicemen for whom barracks, dining rooms and gyms were specially built.
About 6,000 Ukrainian servicemen, including those who took part in the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine's Donbass region, have been trained at Yavorov since 2015.
The military conflict in Ukraine has been in place since 2014, after Donbass residents refused to recognize the new Ukrainian government, which had come to power following the forceful ouster of the country's elected president.
Earlier this week, the Pentagon's arms exporting agency announced that the US State Department has approved the sale of hundreds of Javelin anti-tank missiles and missile launch units to Kiev, in a deal worth at least 47 million dollars.
In late December, US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Washington planned to provide Kiev with military assistance, which she claimed would not violate the Minsk peace accords on the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
No More Mr. Nice Guy: Putin Unveils Next Gen Russian Nukes
John Wight, 03.03.2018(updated 20:23 04.03.2018)
In one short, simple sentence written some years ago, US scholar and Russia expert Stephen F Cohen got to the heart of the matter: “The Cold War ended in Moscow, but not in Washington.”
This indispensable context is how the section of Russian President Vladimir Putin's March 1, 2018, address to the Russian Federal Assembly, dealing with foreign policy and security, has to be understood. In what arguably stands as the most significant public address of the Russian president's tenure in the Kremlin, the world, particularly Washington, was left in no doubt that Moscow possesses the ability and willingness to meet any threat to its security that the US and its allies may seek to impose.
Putin identified the decision of the Bush administration to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002 as the point when the US moved from a stance of mutual trust and respect in its relations with Russia to one of disregard and disrespect, exploiting Russia's internal problems during this period to assert its dominance as a unipolar power. "We did our best to dissuade the Americans from withdrawing from the treaty," the Russian leader announced. "All in vain. The US pulled out of the treaty in 2002. Even after that we tried to develop constructive dialogue with the Americans. We proposed working together in this area to ease concerns and maintain the atmosphere of trust. At one point, I thought that a compromise was possible, but this was not to be. All our proposals, absolutely all of them, were rejected."
In a dramatic video presentation, the Russian president went on to unveil the next generation of the country's nuclear missiles, developed with the objective of circumventing and overcoming Washington's missile defenses and existing nuclear capability.
President Putin Reveals Two Cases When Russia Can Use Nuclear Weapons
© Sputnik/ Grigoriy Sisoev, 02.03.2018 (updated 11:58 07.03.2018)
Russia may potentially use nuclear weapons only in the event of an impending nuclear attack, or if there is a threat to the country's existence, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview with the NBC broadcaster.
Putin: Russia Creates Advanced Weapons Responding to US Scrapping Missile Treaty
© Sputnik/ Michael Klimentyev, 01.03.2018 (updated 02.03.2018)
On March 1, President Vladimir Putin gave his annual state-of-the-nation address to the bicameral parliament, the Federal Assembly, in which he outlined the country’s domestic and foreign policy priorities. Here are the highlights of his speech: from missile defense to artificial intelligence and beyond.
Russia 'Has Long Persuaded US Not to Violate ABM Treaty, Everything Was in Vain'
President Putin announced that Russia was creating new defense systems in response to the United States' deployment of anti-missile defense systems "both in the US and outside its borders." He proceeded to say that all of Russia's suggestions on joint work have been rejected by the US, explaining that Moscow has tried to convince Washington not to violate the anti-missile defense treaty, but all this has been in vain.
According to Putin, the US military build-up will eventually render Russia's nuclear arsenal pointless unless Moscow acts, specifying that all agreements under the New Start Treaty are gradually being undermined and devalued.
"The implementation of plans on global missile defense system, which is currently ongoing, nullify all agreements within the framework of the SNV-III treaty [New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, START signed in 2009] since together with the reduction of number of warheads and their carriers one of the parties, the United States, is increasing the number of interceptors, improving their characteristics, creating new positioning spots, which, if we do not take action, will lead to full nullification of Russia's nuclear potential, [all missiles] will be intercepted."
"A uniform radar location field for a missile attack alert system has been deployed along the perimeter of Russia's borders, which is very important. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, large holes had emerged in it, but everything has now been fixed," Putin said.
'Nobody Listened to Russia Before We Created New Weapons Systems, They Will Listen Now'
"We have started development of new strategic arms that do not use ballistic flight paths, while moving to targets, which means that the missile defense systems are useless in struggle against them."
"No one listened to Russia before we created new armament systems, so listen to Russia now," said President Putin, saying that the country is one step ahead of other states.
Putin underscored that he hadn't revealed all the weapons Russia was working on, but this was "enough" for one day.
At the same time, the president clarified that all the work to enhance Russia's defense capability has been conducted within the framework of international agreements, and does not violate any deals. Putin noted that the country was not threatening anyone and had no intention of attacking anyone despite the creation of a new array of arms, including high-precision strategic weapons, which purely serve Russia's defensive needs.
Putin also noted the "enormous work" in strengthening the Russian army and fleet, which had been conducted over the past several years.
"The whole world now knows the names of Russia's modern weapons," he stated.
Russia Cannot Avoid Lagging Behind in Development of Modern Technology, AI
According to the President, the next few years will be crucial for technological changes in Russia, regardless of who wins the upcoming presidential election.
"The world is accumulating enormous technological potential which allows us to make a huge breakthroughs in improving people's standard of living, modernization of economy, infrastructure and state governance… The efficiency of how we use the great potential of the technological revolution… depends on us only. In this context, the next few years will be decisive for the future of the country," Putin said.
Having stressed that lagging behind was a serious problem that should be overcome, President Putin stated that Russia was ready for a technological breakthrough. Putin called for removing all barriers hindering the development of robotics and artificial intelligence in Russia, adding that the legal framework for the work of foreign scientists and IT specialists should be formed in the country.
"Russia should become not only a key logistics hub of the planet, but, let me stress, one of the global centers of storage, processing, transmitting and protecting large information blocks, the so-called big data," Putin stated, underscoring the urgent need to take into consideration global technological changes when developing the country's infrastructure, the importance of adding such solutions as digital navigation, drones, artificial intelligence.
Die soziale Opposition im Bundestag: Glaubwürdige Stimme für die Durchsetzung einer sozialen Wende und einer friedlichen Außenpolitik!
DIE LINKE, 06. März 2018
5. Wir setzen auf Ab- statt Aufrüstung und wollen Waffenexporte verbieten: Der Koalitionsvertrag dagegen enthält eine Aufrüstungsverpflichtung, die zu einer Verdopplung der Rüstungsausgaben auf über 70 Milliarden Euro führen würde. Wir wollen eine neue Entspannungspolitik in Europa. Frieden und Sicherheit ohne Russland kann es in Europa nicht geben. Wir setzen uns deshalb für die Ersetzung der NATO durch ein kollektives Sicherheitssystem unter Einschluss Russlands ein. Und wir wollen aus den militärischen Strukturen von NATO und EU austreten. Wir stehen auch weiterhin für eine konsequente Friedenspolitik und wollen die Bundeswehr aus den Auslandseinsätzen zurückholen. Wir wollen Fluchtursachen bekämpfen, das Sterben im Mittelmeer beenden und stehen für eine humane Flüchtlingspolitik.
The National Endowment for (Meddling in) Democracy
By Daniel Lazare. March 8, 2018 (in cache)
The unwritten rule governing the NED’s activities is that the U.S. has an unqualified right to do unto others what others may not do unto the U.S.
... meddling in other countries has been a favorite Washington pastime ever since William McKinley vowed to “Christianize” the Philippines in 1899, despite the fact that most Filipinos were already Catholic. Today, an alphabet soup of U.S. agencies engage in political interference virtually around the clock, everyone from U.S. Agency for International Development [USAID] to the Voice of America [VOA], Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty [RFE/RL] to the Department of Homeland Security [DHS]. The last maintains some 2,000 U.S. employees in 70 countries to ensure that no one even thinks of doing anything bad to anyone over here.
Then there is the National Endowment for Democracy, a $180-million-a-year government-funded outfit that is a byword for American intrusiveness. The NED is an example of what might be called “speckism,” the tendency to go on about the speck in your neighbor’s eye without ever considering the plank in your own (see Matthew 7 for further details). Prohibited by law from interfering in domestic politics, the endowment devotes endless energy to the democratic shortcomings of other countries, especially when they threaten American interests.
... Others who helped lay the groundwork were:
Gang of Four: Senators Call for Tillerson to Enter into Arms Control Talks with the Kremlin
By Gilbert Doctorow and Ray McGovern, March 10, 2018
Four United States senators are urging a new approach to U.S.-Russian relations based on renewed arms control efforts, but you probably haven’t heard about it from the mainstream media ....
As posted on the website of Senator Merkley
March 8, 2018
The Honorable Rex W. Tillerson
Secretary of State
U.S. Department of State
Dear Secretary Tillerson:
We write to urge the State Department to convene the next U.S.-Russia Strategic Dialogue as soon as possible.
A U.S.-Russia Strategic Dialogue is more urgent following President Putin’s public address on March 1st when he referred to several new nuclear weapons Russia is reportedly developing including a cruise missile and a nuclear underwater drone, which are not currently limited by the New START treaty, and would be destabilizing if deployed. ...
... There is no guarantee that we can make progress with Russia on these issues. However, even at the height of Cold War tensions, the United States and the Soviet Union were able to engage on matters of strategic stability. Leaders from both countries believed, as we should today, that the incredible destructive force of nuclear weapons is reason enough to make any and all efforts to lessen the chance that they can never be used again.
Senators Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont)
‘DR. STRANGELOVE’ IS BASICALLY A DOCUMENTARY
GEEK'S GUIDE TO THE GALAXY CULTURE
DATE OF PUBLICATION: 03.03.18. TIME OF PUBLICATION: 8:50 AM. (im Cache)
STANLEY KUBRICKs Film Dr. Strangelove von 1964 ist eine schwarze Komödie, die damit endet, dass die Welt in einem Atomkrieg völlig zerstört wird. Viele Aspekte des Films mögen absurd erscheinen, aber laut Daniel Ellsberg, der in den 60er Jahren als [hochrangiger] Nuklearkriegsplaner gearbeitet hat, ist er der Realität ziemlich nahe. [Ellsberg hat im Dezember 2017 sein neues Buch "The Doomesday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner" veröffentlicht. Darin beschreibt er, wie er im Rahmen seiner Arbeit bei der RAND Corporation höchste Ebenen der amerikanischen Regierung und des Militärs beraten hat.]
"Das war ein Dokumentarfilm", sagt Ellsberg in Episode 297 des Podcasts Geeks Guide to the Galaxy. "Alles in diesem Film existierte zu dieser Zeit als operative Realität."
Er sagt, während die spezielle Doomsday Maschine, die in Dr. Seltsam ist, fiktiv ist, fungieren die russischen und amerikanischen Atomarsenale als de facto Doomsday Machines, da ein erster Schlag einer Macht gegen die andere mehr als genug wäre, um die Welt in einen [mehrere Jahrzehnte dauernden] nuklearen Winter zu stürzen.
"Wenn [die USA] ihren tatsächlichen Plänen gefolgt wären und sie getan hätten, was sie unter Kriegsbedingungen zu tun beabsichtigten, hätte es fast das gesamte menschliche Leben [auf unserem Planeten] zerstört", sagt Ellsberg.
Nicht nur das, auch die Idee für die Doomsday Machine in Dr. Strangelove wurde inspiriert von dem realen Denken von Herman Kahn, einem von Ellsbergs Kollegen bei RAND. "Kahns Worte werden tatsächlich im Film zitiert, und Kahn selbst wollte darin auftreten. Er dachte, er sollte so ein paar Tantiemen dafür bekommen", sagt Ellsberg. "Und Kubrick musste ihm versichern, dass das nicht so funktionierte."
Leider hat sich seit 1964 nichts wirklich verändert, und die Chancen auf einen Unfall oder ein Missverständnis, das zu einem nuklearen Holocaust führt, bleiben erschreckend hoch. "Es ist Zeit für einen anderen Dr. Seltsam, oder zumindest eine Wiederbelebung davon", sagt Ellsberg. "Und ich würde mich sehr für die Reaktionen im Pentagon auf eine Vorführung dieses Films interessieren."
When dealing with a bear, hubris is suicidal
The Saker, March 15, 2018
... the four following characteristics as some of its core features:
To illustrate my point I will use the recent “Skripal nerve-gas assassination” story as it really encompasses all of these characteristics.
...the gas allegedly used in the attack, “Novichok”, was manufactured in Uzbekistan and the cleanup of the factory producing it was made by, you guessed it, a US company
„Die Bilanz nach 25 Jahre Ende UdSSR ist ernüchternd“
Horst Teltschik im Interview mit Jens Wendland, Russlandkontrovers, 15. Juni 2016
„Russland stand und steht nach der Auflösung der UdSSR vor gigantischen Aufgaben, die im Westen bis heute unterschätzt werden. (…) Von der großartigen Vision eines „Gemeinsamen Europäischen Hauses“ mit gleicher Sicherheit für alle blieb fast nichts übrig. Die Bilanz nach 25 Jahren ist mehr als ernüchternd, wobei Europa und die USA dazu beigetragen haben“
... Nach Jahrhunderten autokratischer Zarenherrschaft und nach 70 Jahren kommunistischer Diktatur muss die russische Politik eine Vielzahl von tiefgreifenden strukturellen Reformen in Angriff nehmen:
Der Reformprozess ist praktisch zum Stillstand gekommen.
Gleichzeitig herrschte ein blutiger Bürgerkrieg in Tschetschenien, der nach dem Zerfall der Sowjetunion sogar den Zusammenhalt des Vielvölkerstaates Russland bedrohte.
Die Bilanz nach 25 Jahren ist mehr als ernüchternd, wobei Europa und die USA dazu beigetragen haben.
Die Erweiterung der EU und der NATO bis an die Grenzen Russlands unter Einbeziehung ehemaliger Sowjetrepubliken ist von Russland zunehmend als potentielle Bedrohung verstanden worden. Das ist unverständlich. Die NATO ist ein Defensivbündnis und hat bereits auf dem Sondergipfel im Juli 1990 den Warschauer Pakt – Staaten „die Hand zur Freundschaft“ gereicht. Russland ist 1994 der Partnership for Peace – Initiative von Präsident Clinton zur militärischen Zusammenarbeit beigetreten. Dieser hatte sogar Jelzin mündlich und schriftlich den Beitritt zur NATO angeboten. Selbst Präsident Putin hat anfänglich eine Mitgliedschaft in der politischen Organisation der NATO nicht grundsätzlich ausgeschlossen.
Im Mai 1997 unterzeichneten die NATO und Russland die „Grundakte über Gegenseitige Beziehungen, Zusammenarbeit und Sicherheit“ mit dem Ziel, eine starke, stabile und dauerhafte Zusammenarbeit zu entwickeln. Wörtlich heißt es darin: „Die NATO und Russland betrachten einander nicht als Gegner“. Um die Ziele der Grundakte durchzusetzen, wurde im Mai 2002 der „Gemeinsame Ständige NATO-Russland-Rat“ eingerichtet. Doch er wurde weder während des Georgienkrieges 2008 noch in der Ukrainekrise einberufen. Vor wenigen Wochen gab es endlich wieder ein Zusammentreffen.
Ähnliches gilt für die EU. Sie hat mit Russland 1997 ein Partnerschafts- und Kooperationsabkommen geschlossen, das 2007 auslief und bis heute nicht erneuert wurde. Auch der Vorschlag einer gesamteuropäischen Freihandelszone von Lissabon bis Wladiwostok von EU-Kommissionspräsidenten Prodi wurde nicht weiterverfolgt. Das sind nur einige Initiativen und Vorschläge, die auf dem Tisch lagen. Enttäuschend ist, dass keine Seite die Chancen genutzt hat, sondern mangelndes Vertrauen bzw. altes Misstrauen vorherrschend blieben. Die russische Annexion der Krim und die andauernde Aggression in der Ostukraine haben die Beziehungen gegenwärtig fast zum Erliegen gebracht.
... Die größte Fehleinschätzung [der deutschen Politik] besteht darin, die erklärten, wenn auch übertriebenen Sicherheitsinteressen Russlands nicht ernst genug genommen zu haben. Die im November 1990 von allen 35 Staats- und Regierungschefs der KSZE- Staaten unterschriebene „Charta für ein neues Europa“ ist von Anbeginn nicht entschlossen in konkrete Entscheidungen umgesetzt worden. Die vereinbarten jährlichen Außenministerkonferenzen blieben ohne Wirkung. Das beschlossene Konfliktverhütungszentrum trat auch in Krisensituationen nach außen nie in Erscheinung. Die OSZE versucht erst jetzt in der Ukrainekrise ihrer Rolle des Krisenmanagements gerecht zu werden.
Präsident Medwedew hatte in seiner Rede im Juni 2008 in Berlin vorgeschlagen, einen Vertrag über eine gesamteuropäische Sicherheitsordnung zu verhandeln. Sein Vorschlag blieb im Westen ohne Echo. Im Grundsatz hat sich Russland auf Themen der Sicherheit versteift, der Westen dagegen auf Menschenrechte, Wahlbeobachtung u.a., für Russland der Versuch, sich in seine inneren Angelegenheiten einzumischen.
To prevent nuclear war, borrow from 1973
ADAM M. SCHEINMAN, 14 March 2018
Adam M. Scheinman was special representative of the president for nuclear nonproliferation, with rank of ambassador, from 2014 to 2016.
North Korea’s nuclear build-up continues. Vladimir Putin announced on March 1 that Russia had developed new nuclear weapons—an announcement timed, no doubt, to one-up the US Nuclear Posture Review, which was released in February. Amid developments such as these, some observers worry that nuclear weapons are back, big time.
The truth is that they never really left. Yes, total stockpile numbers have come way down from their Cold War high. But the strategic rationale for retaining nuclear weapons remains. That’s unlikely to change any time soon—so what can realistically be done to stop nuclear wars before they start?
Some disarmament advocates, reflecting a human tendency to seek simple solutions to highly complex problems, favor a moonshot approach—they want, as a first step toward abolition, to prohibit nuclear weapons by treaty. For the United States, a nation with significant military responsibilities, the equation works in reverse: Nuclear weapons will be needed for deterrence as long as Washington’s military competitors possess them. It is an uncomfortable fact of life in the United States that nuclear weapons are both protagonist and antagonist. They are both a safeguard for US security and a massive threat to it. Resolving this tension has been the métier of policy makers and scholars for the entirety of the nuclear age, and the tension is sure to persist until the major powers all but eliminate their differences—and until the regional competitions that give rise to nuclear proliferation are resolved.
No such resolution appears imminent. Reductions in the US and Russian arsenals, beyond those stipulated under New START, seem a distant prospect. Russia waved off President Obama’s offer in June 2013 to negotiate a new round of nuclear cuts and then proceeded to persist in violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. As for multilateral pacts that would bring a broader set of players into the disarmament process, this prospect seems distant as well—and the reality in any event is that China, France, and the United Kingdom maintain much smaller nuclear arsenals than do the big two.
What then? Well, a 1973 agreement between the United States and the Soviet Union—little noticed when signed and largely forgotten since—holds some promise in the current environment. The US-Soviet Agreement on the Prevention of Nuclear War, signed during a period of US-Soviet détente—and, admittedly, more symbolic than substantial—called on the two states “to remove the danger of nuclear war and of the use of nuclear weapons” and “to prevent the development of situations capable of causing a dangerous exacerbation of their relations,” which might lead to a nuclear war.
Arms control advocates understandably focus their efforts on reducing numbers of warheads and missiles. But until nuclear reductions are back on the table, revisiting or updating the 1973 agreement could provide an alternative framework for discussions across a broad range of strategic nuclear issues and concerns.
Wise goal, great hopes. In the 1960s, US policy makers began to seek a wise goal: ensuring that fewer fingers gripped the nuclear trigger. They worked to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. They lowered risks by pursuing arms control agreements with the Soviet Union.
For Defense Secretary Robert McNamara and other Americans who participated in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, the principal lesson learned was that American cities, because of the potential fog of miscalculation, misjudgment, or miscommunication, faced an intolerable risk of absorbing a nuclear strike during a crisis. The nuclear war scare over Cuba generated new imperatives for policy makers. Crises must be avoided. Strategic stability—a situation in which neither the United States nor the Soviet Union would have reason to fear a nuclear first strike—must be established. Rough nuclear parity must set the bar for nuclear use as high as possible.
Comment by J. Gruber
Loud & Clear, 23.3.2018
Comment by John Kiriakou (former CIA analyst and case officer, senior investigator for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee)
time: 15:57 - 17:31 - details on the Novichok attack on the Skripals
"The first thing that you do when you first sit down to begin planning a clandestine operation, is that you address the possibility of what's called "blowback". Blowback is unintended consequences of the operation. You go through plan A, B, C, D, every possible scenario that you and anybody else around the table can think of. Well, this is an easy one: Blowback is obvious in an operation like this. So, the easy answer is: No professional intelligence officer in his right mind in Russia would want to do an operation like this because there is no upside to it. If the Russians wanted to kill Mr. Skripal they could have done it any number of times over the last decade and a half or two decades. They didn't. And so it makes zero sense that they would do it now.
We don't know anything about this guy. Did he owe money to the Russian mafia? Maybe he did. May be he is a degenerate (?) gambler. We don't have any idea. But those notions don't fit in the Theresa May - Boris Johnson narrative. There was a rush to judgement here, because that's what helps move UK foreign policy forward. If Theresa May would have come out and say "Well, it wasn't the Russians." well, she's going to look stupid. And she has nothing to gain by coming out and saying that.
by Dmitry Orlov, Patreon, 6 Sept. 2018
The Brits have just provided my previous article, The Truthers and The Fakers, with a tidy little case study: the very next day after I published it Theresa May’s government stepped into its role as one of the world’s premier Fakers and unleashed the next installment of fake news on the Skripal poisoning. We can use this as training material in learning how to spot and discard fakes.
The fake story that May has been pushing is that it is “highly likely” that the Kremlin ordered a hit on the former British spy Sergei Skripal (and his daughter) using a “Russian-made” chemical weapon called “Novichok.” In turn, from what we already knew, it is highly likely that this story is a complete and utter fake. As I explained in the previous article, it is not our job to establish what really happened. We would be unable to do so with any degree of certainty without gaining access to state secrets. But we don’t need to; all we need to do is establish with a reasonable degree of certainty that the British government’s story is a foolishly, incompetently concocted fabrication. Doing so will then allow us to properly classify the British press, which repeats this nonsense as fact, and the British public, which accepts it unquestioningly at face value. Then we can drop the erroneous appellation “great”—because great nations don’t act so stupidly.
First, applying the usual investigative technique of identifying means, motive and opportunity, we find that the Russian government had none of them while Theresa May’s government had all of them.
Means: Russia had given up its chemical weapons, submitted to international inspections and no longer has a chemical weapons program, while Britain, along with the US, has been ignoring its treaty obligations. It has not given up its chemical weapons, has not submitted to international inspections and maintains a chemical weapons program at Porton Down, a few miles from where the poisonings took place. Experts at Porton Down claim to have identified the chemical agent that was supposedly used, and this implies that they had some of it on hand.
Motive: Russia had handed Skripal over to Britain in a spy swap a few years ago and had no reason to pursue him. Gratuitously causing an international scandal right before the World Cup was to be held in Russia would have been considered a career-ending move for any Russian official. On the other hand, Theresa May’s government badly needed a distraction from its disastrous Brexit negotiations, flagging support and other woes and would have been eager to please its masters in Washington by staging a provocation against Russia.
Opportunity: The poisoning took place on British soil, down the street from a British chemical weapons facility, and the person poisoned was living under the watchful eye of British special services. Clearly, the British had ample opportunity; whether the Russians had any at all remains to be shown.
Thus, applying the now traditional British legal standard of “highly likely,” it seems highly likely that that the Kremlin had nothing to do with it. But this still leaves open the question of what precisely it was that the Kremlin had nothing to do with because it is highly likely that what the British government claims to have happened didn’t happen.
The British claim that two Russian government agents (John Kiriakou stated in Loud & Clear, 6 Sept. 2018, that secret agents having the same target never travel together), Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov (sic) flew to Britain from Moscow on an Aeroflot flight, went to Salisbury, sprayed some Novichok on the doorknob of Skripal’s front door, then flew back. They transported Novichok in a perfume bottle, which they then discarded in a park. Skripal and his daughter touched the doorknob, then went out for lunch and a stroll, and some hours later synchronously succumbed to the poison, also contaminating a policeman who came to their rescue. All three eventually recovered. Weeks later a local drug addict found the perfume bottle in a park and gave it to his girlfriend, who sprayed herself with the substance and died while he fell ill and recovered.
Novichok is a chemical weapon designed to kill on contact and instantaneously wipe out entire cities. It is known to have been synthesized by labs in several countries, including one in the Former Soviet Union. It isn’t known to have ever been synthesized in Russia. It is known to be far too deadly to have been used in the manner described and to have produced such mild effects.
First, if Petrov and Boshirov had indeed tried transporting this volatile substance in an ordinary perfume bottle rather than a military-grade hermetically sealed container, they wouldn’t have made it to their destination but would have died along the way. Second, if they attempted to spray Novichok on a doorknob without wearing protective gear, they would have been found dead on Skripal’s doorstep. Third, if Skripal and his daughter touched a doorknob contaminated with Novichok, they would likewise have been found dead on that same doorstep. Based on just this information, we can be quite certain that the poison in question wasn’t Novichok and that whatever it was wasn’t administered in the manner described.
What remains of the British story? That two people flew in from Moscow to spray a defective poison on a doorknob, then discard it? (It only killed one out of five people.) The British claimed that their names were fake, as were their documents, expecting us to believe that who they are isn’t known but that it is known that they are Russian agents. Well, one of their names is certainly fake on examination: it’s Bashirov (a very common last name in the Russian Republic of Tatarstan) not Boshirov. Why would a Russian agent put a typo in his alias? It seems “highly likely” that this typo was British in origin.
Then, we are told that these two flew in directly from Moscow with Russian passports, meaning that they had to have obtained visas at the British Embassy in Moscow in a process that involves fingerprinting and other biometric data. This should make them easy to identify and to find out their real names, but it has been five months and the British authorities still haven’t bothered to do so. This makes it “highly likely” that these are not real Russian agents but amateurish British concoctions.
And then we have this real gem of incompetence: the British showed surveillance video stills of these two characters walking separately through the same place at the airport precisely at the same time: 02/03/2018 16:22:43.
Apparently, the British government expects everyone to believe that the Russians have perfected time travel. We, on the other hand, should find it much more believable that the British government has been stocked with feeble-minded, incompetent degenerates. This brings up a question: What’s so great about Britain? Perhaps the appellation “great” needs to be updated to some more fitting, less flattering adjective? You be the judge.
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London: Hauptstadt friedensgefährdender Lügen.
Willy Wimmer, 27. März 2018 (im Cache)
Der Westen dreht an der Eskalationsschraube. Russland ist in einer Art und Weise gefordert, wie wir es sogar während des ersten Kalten Krieges nicht erlebt haben. Die Menschen in Europa sind eigentlich auf Zusammenarbeit aus. Sie wollen nach Jahrzehnten der westlichen Kriegszüge endlich einmal Frieden und keinesfalls den nächsten Großkonflikt. Deshalb ist die Frage berechtigt, als was der “Blitz” aus London wahrgenommen wird, wenigstens bei denen, die in den Staaten der Europäischen Union leben?
Die Frage ist zu beantworten, wenn man sich die westliche Politik gegenüber Russland seit dem Regierungs-Revirement Genscher/Kinkel im Frühjahr 1992 ansieht. Bis zu diesem Zeitpunkt war in Europa Zusammenarbeit mit Russland auf der Basis der gegen Ende des ersten Kalten Krieges vereinbarten Regeln über das “gemeinsame Haus Europa” angesagt. Dazu zählte vor allem die “Charta von Paris” aus dem November 1990. Mit dieser Charta sollte die konstruktive Phase der Zusammenarbeit in Europa eingeläutet und der Krieg aus Europa endgültig verbannt werden. Das war nicht im angelsächsischen Interesse, wie sich ab diesem Zeitpunkt in dem Bemühen der US-dominierten NATO zeigte, sich an die Westgrenze der Russischen Föderation vorzuschieben.
... Es ist schockierend und friedensgefährdend, wie sich die deutsche Bundesregierung verhält. Großbritannien hat den Anspruch auf “Bündnissolidarität” nur, wenn es sich an die weltweit anerkannten Regeln hält und die verlangen nun einmal “Beweise”. Die Schweiz, die sich in immer stärkerem Maße an ihre alte Rolle der “streitschlichtenden Großmacht” erinnert, macht es Berlin geradezu vor, auf was es jetzt ankommt: Aufklärung eines Kriminalfalls in Großbritannien und Beweise. Sonst geht gar nichts.
Statt London wegen andauernder kriegstreibender Aktivitäten in den Arm zu fallen, dackelt Frau Dr. Merkel als Kanzlerin hinter der britischen Premierministerin her.
Wie der Westen die Welt ins Chaos stürzte
„Der Tod kommt aus Amerika“ und die Bestätigung durch den Chef von STRATFOR
Albrecht Müller, 13. 3.2015 (im Cache) mit Abdruck des Wimmer-Briefs über die Bratislava-Konferenz an G. Schröder vom 2.5.2000
Under Trump's Leadership, US Ratchets Up Confrontation With Russia
Brian Becker, John Kiriakou, LOUD & CLEAR, 27.03.2018 (in cache: INTENSO#9/interviews&discussion/loud&clear/27.3.2018-skripal_escalation_diplomats_expulsion.mp3")
President Trump today expelled 60 Russian diplomats from the United States and closed the Russian consulate in Seattle in reaction to the poisoning of a spy in the UK, which accuses Russia of the act. 16 EU members in addition to Britain have also followed suit and expelled Russian diplomats. The move is a major step up in the worsening of relations between the US and Russia.
Appell Eugen Drewermanns vor Schloss Bellevue: „Wir wollen Frieden und keinen Krieg"
RT Deutsch, 19.12.2014 • 16:53 Uhr
(Video von KenFM)
Wir dokumentieren die bewegende Abschlussrede des Theologen und Publizisten Eugen Drewermann, anlässlich der Demonstration der Friedensbewegung im Rahmen des sogenannten Friedenswinters, vor dem Amtssitz des Bundespräsidenten Joachim Gauck am 13. Dezember 2014.
Er kritisiert in seinem Appell den „grenzenlosen Zynismus Gaucks“, dessen Militarismus, die Waffenexporte der BRD und die menschenverachtende Abschottung Europas durch quasi-militärische Verbände wie Frontex. Ebenfalls Theologe wie Gauck setzt er aber ganz andere Akzente. Dem gauckschen Verständnis von „Auge um Auge, Zahn um Zahn“ setzt er ein „Liebe deinen Nächsten wie dich selbst“ und „Du sollst nicht töten“ entgegen.
Vorwurf "Querfront": Wie die Friedensbewegung in Deutschland sabotiert wurde
Meinung, RT Deutsch, 3.04.2018
... Eine ganz große Koalition aus Medien, Politikern und "Initiativen" hat seit dem Jahr 2014 den um den Frieden besorgten Menschen die Label "Querfront" und "Verschwörungstheoretiker" angehängt, was bis heute zu einer Spaltung der Bewegung führt. Damals gab es zaghafte Versuche, die traditionelle Friedensbewegung mit den zur Ukraine-Krise entstandenen "Mahnwachen für den Frieden" zu verbinden - Stichwort "Friedenswinter". In den wütenden Presse-Kampagnen gegen diese Versuche muss man den Ursprung der heutigen Schwäche der pazifistischen Bewegung in Deutschland suchen.
Die Zeit fabulierte (Cache) damals von "Altkommunisten, Neu-Rechten, linken Abgeordneten und Gewerkschaftern", die gegen "alle Politiker" demonstrieren würden - "außer Putin". Der Spiegel verbreitete (Cache), beim Friedenswinter würden sich "Putin-Fans, Pazifisten und Verschwörungstheoretiker" versammeln, der Tagesspiegel sah (Cache) bei den pazifistischen Demos vor allem "Verschwörungstheoretiker, Linke und Neonazis".
Dass die zitierten Zeitungen sich so äußern, mag man noch als natürliches Verhalten großer deutscher Privatmedien empfinden. Besonders schockierend war aber, dass sich 2014 auch angeblich linke Publikationen und Personen geradezu hasserfüllt gegenüber den Friedensbewegten positionierten. Ohne diese Schützenhilfe von "links" hätte die Hetzkampagne der großen Medien gegen Friedensdemos niemals diese Wucht entfaltet. Die taz beleidigte (paywall) die Demo-Teilnehmer pauschal als von Russland verführte "Wirrköpfe". Das Neue Deutschland bezeichnete (paywall) die Teilnehmer der Mahnwachen für den Frieden als "günstigstenfalls verwirrte, schlimmstenfalls von ihrem Wahn überzeugte" Menschen.
Auch "Linke" hetzten gegen Friedenswinter
Die schräge Argumentationslinie "Pazifismus gleich Wahnsinn" wurde nicht nur von großen, kleinen, bürgerlichen und "linken" Medien massenhaft verbreitet, sondern auch von prominenten pseudolinken Einzelpersonen wie Jutta Dittfurth. Die Grüne der ersten Stunde richtet ihre abnehmende Berühmtheit und ihre politische Energie schon lange vor allem gegen links. Im Jahr 2014 deckte (Cache) auch sie auf, "welcher neurechte Plan hinter dem scheinbar friedlichen Gerede" der Pazifisten lauere. Seither erlebt die damals fast vergessene Politikerin einen zweiten Frühling als Torwächterin der "linken" Szene und wirft mit den Antisemitismus-Vorwürfen nur so um sich.
Eine sehr destruktive Rolle gegen eine starke Friedensbewegung in Deutschland haben auch Teile der Linkspartei eingenommen - ganz vorne in der Reihe der Gegner des Friedenswinters hat sich damals erwartungsgemäß der heutige Berliner Kultursenator Klaus Lederer positioniert (paywall): Die Mahnwachen für den Frieden würden "den Boden für Rechtspopulismus, Antisemitismus und Rassismus" bereiten. Er sehe das alles "mit Gruseln". ...
Mehr lesen:Schlammschlacht 2.0: Die "Querfront"-Kampagne gegen die Friedensbewegung
Russian to Judgement
13 Mar, 2018 in Uncategorized by craig (Murray)
... From Putin’s point of view, to assassinate Skripal now seems to have very little motivation. If the Russians have waited eight years to do this, they could have waited until after their World Cup. The Russians have never killed a swapped spy before. Just as diplomats, British and otherwise, are the most ardent upholders of the principle of diplomatic immunity, so security service personnel everywhere are the least likely to wish to destroy a system which can be a key aspect of their own personal security; quite literally spy swaps are their “Get Out of Jail Free” card. You don’t undermine that system – probably terminally – without very good reason.
It is worth noting that the “wicked” Russians gave Skripal a far lighter jail sentence than an American equivalent would have received. If a member of US Military Intelligence had sold, for cash to the Russians, the names of hundreds of US agents and officers operating abroad, the Americans would at the very least jail the person for life, and I strongly suspect would execute them. Skripal just received a jail sentence of 18 years, which is hard to square with the narrative of implacable vindictiveness against him. If the Russians had wanted to make an example, that was the time.
... I am alarmed by the security, spying and armaments industries’ frenetic efforts to stoke Russophobia and heat up the new cold war. I am especially alarmed at the stream of cold war warrior “experts” dominating the news cycles. I write as someone who believes that agents of the Russian state did assassinate Litvinenko, and that the Russian security services carried out at least some of the apartment bombings that provided the pretext for the brutal assault on Chechnya. I believe the Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Georgia is illegal. On the other hand, in Syria Russia has saved the Middle East from domination by a new wave of US and Saudi sponsored extreme jihadists.
The naive view of the world as “goodies” and “baddies”, with our own ruling class as the good guys, is for the birds. I witnessed personally in Uzbekistan the willingness of the UK and US security services to accept and validate intelligence they knew to be false in order to pursue their policy objectives. We should be extremely sceptical of their current anti-Russian narrative. There are many possible suspects in this attack.
Knobs and Knockers 130
Blog by Craig Murray, 5 Apr, 2018 (in cache)
What is left of the government’s definitive identification of Russia as the culprit in the Salisbury attack? It is a simple truth that Russia is not the only state that could have made the nerve agent: dozens of them could. It could also have been made by many non-state actors.
Motorola sales agent Gary Aitkenhead – inexplicably since January, Chief Executive of Porton Down chemical weapons establishment – said in his Sky interview that “probably” only a state actor could create the nerve agent. That is to admit the possibility that a non state actor could. David Collum, Professor of Organo-Chemistry at Cornell University, infinitely more qualified than a Motorola salesman, has stated that his senior students could do it. Professor Collum tweeted me this morning.
Dave Collum - 5 April 2018
... I see major problems with the notion that the Skripals were poisoned by their doorknob.
The first is this. After what Dame Sally Davis, Chief Medical officer for England, called “rigorous scientific analysis” of the substance used on the Skripals, the government advised those who may have been in contact to wash their clothes and wipe surfaces with warm water and wet wipes. Suspect locations were hosed down by the fire brigade.
But if the substance was in a form that could be washed away, why was it placed on an external door knob? It was in point of fact raining heavily in Salisbury that day, and indeed had been for some time.
Can somebody explain to me the scenario in which two people both touch the exterior door handle in exiting and closing the door? And if it transferred from one to the other, why did it not also transfer to the doctor who gave extensive aid that brought her in close bodily contact, including with fluids?
The second problem is that the Novichok family of nerve agents are instant acting. There is no such thing as a delayed reaction nerve agent. Remember we have been specifically told by Theresa May that this nerve agent is up to ten times more powerful than VX, the Porton Down developed nerve agent that killed Kim’s brother in 15 minutes.
But if it was on the doorknob, the last contact they could possibly have had with the nerve agent was a full three hours before it took effect. Not only that, they were well enough to drive, to walk around a shopping centre, visit a pub, and then – and this is the truly unbelievable bit – their central nervous systems felt in such good fettle, and their digestive systems so in balance, they were able to sit down and eat a full restaurant meal. Only after all that were they – both at precisely the same time despite their substantially different weights – suddenly struck down by the nerve agent, which went from no effects at all, to deadly, on an alarm clock basis.
This narrative simply is not remotely credible. Nerve agents – above all “military grade nerve agents” – were designed as battlefield weapons. They do not leave opponents fighting fit for hours. There is no description in the scientific literature of a nerve agent having this extraordinary time bomb effect. ... If the nerve agent was on the door handle and they touched it, the onset of these symptoms would have occurred before they reached the car. They would certainly have not felt like sitting down to a good lunch two hours later.
Of A Type Developed By Liars 739
Blog by Craig Murray, 16 March 2018
I have now received confirmation from a well placed FCO source that Porton Down scientists are not able to identify the nerve agent as being of Russian manufacture, and have been resentful of the pressure being placed on them to do so. Porton Down would only sign up to the formulation “of a type developed by Russia” after a rather difficult meeting where this was agreed as a compromise formulation. The Russians were allegedly researching, in the “Novichok” programme a generation of nerve agents which could be produced from commercially available precursors such as insecticides and fertilisers. This substance is a “novichok” in that sense. It is of that type. Just as I am typing on a laptop of a type developed by the United States, though this one was made in China.
To anybody with a Whitehall background this has been obvious for several days. The government has never said the nerve agent was made in Russia, or that it can only be made in Russia. The exact formulation “of a type developed by Russia” was used by Theresa May in parliament, used by the UK at the UN Security Council, used by Boris Johnson on the BBC yesterday and, most tellingly of all, “of a type developed by Russia” is the precise phrase used in the joint communique issued by the UK, USA, France and Germany yesterday:
This use of a military-grade nerve agent, of a type developed by Russia, constitutes the first offensive use of a nerve agent in Europe since the Second World War.
When the same extremely careful phrasing is never deviated from, you know it is the result of a very delicate Whitehall compromise. My FCO source, like me, remembers the extreme pressure put on FCO staff and other civil servants to sign off the dirty dossier on Iraqi WMD, some of which pressure I recount in my memoir Murder in Samarkand. She volunteered the comparison to what is happening now, particularly at Porton Down, with no prompting from me.
Separately I have written to the media office at OPCW to ask them to confirm that there has never been any physical evidence of the existence of Russian Novichoks, and the programme of inspection and destruction of Russian chemical weapons was completed last year.
Did you know these interesting facts?
OPCW inspectors have had full access to all known Russian chemical weapons facilities for over a decade – including those identified by the “Novichok” alleged whistleblower Mirzayanov – and last year OPCW inspectors completed the destruction of the last of 40,000 tonnes of Russian chemical weapons
By contrast the programme of destruction of US chemical weapons stocks still has five years to run
Israel has extensive stocks of chemical weapons but has always refused to declare any of them to the OPCW. Israel is not a state party to the Chemical Weapons Convention nor a member of the OPCW. Israel signed in 1993 but refused to ratify as this would mean inspection and destruction of its chemical weapons. Israel undoubtedly has as much technical capacity as any state to synthesise “Novichoks”.
Until this week, the near universal belief among chemical weapons experts, and the official position of the OPCW, was that “Novichoks” were at most a theoretical research programme which the Russians had never succeeded in actually synthesising and manufacturing. That is why they are not on the OPCW list of banned chemical weapons.
Porton Down is still not certain it is the Russians who have apparently synthesised a “Novichok”. Hence “Of a type developed by Russia”. Note developed, not made, produced or manufactured.
It is very carefully worded propaganda. Of a type developed by liars. ....
Hinweise der Woche
nachdenkseiten.de, 8. April 2018
Skripal - Der Westen tötet im Orient 329 Menschen. Jeden Tag. Seit 27 Jahren.
BEYOND NUCLEAR - working for a world free from nuclear power and nuclear weapons
Risk of "dirty shutdown" at Paducah gaseous diffusion uranium enrichment plant
... In September 1999, Joby Warrick of the Washington Post [In Harms Way, But in the Dark, August 8, 1999) broke the story that post-reprocessing uranium from Hanford Nuclear Reservation, containing fission products and transuranics, had been secretively run through Paducah. Local residents, such as Ron Lamb, had already been long protesting Technetium-99 in his drinking well water, however. Paducah whistleblower Al Puckett helped expose a secret dumping ground for radioactive and hazardous wastes on site. Such revelations help to explain the high cancer rate amongst Paducah workers and area residents. ...
Was über die Luftangriffe in Syrien bekannt ist
Why the Arabs don’t want us in Syria - Warum die Araber uns in Syrien nicht wollen
By ROBERT F. KENNEDY, JR, 2/23/16, 8:50 AM CET, Updated 9/16/16 (in cache: english - german)
They don’t hate ‘our freedoms.’ They hate that we’ve betrayed our ideals in their own countries — for oil.
Campact sollte diskutieren, ob sie sich künftigen Friedensappellen anschließen mögen
Eine Anregung von Joachim Gruber, 19.4.2018
The following videos are referenced in surveillance@acamedia (index2.html)
NSA Genius Debunks Russiagate Once & For All
William Binney on The Jimmy Dore Show, January 2018
William Binney Warning Surveillance Turning Inside
William Binney on InfoWars, December 2017
How NSA Tracks You (Bill Binney)
From the SHA2017 conference in Netherlands, August 12, 2017
VIPS Call on Trump Not to Pull Out of Iran Nuclear Deal
May 7, 2018 • 12 Comments
NOTE: The evidence presented by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 30 alleging a covert Iranian nuclear weapons program shows blatant signs of fabrication. That evidence is linked to documents presented by the Bush Administration more a decade earlier as proof of a covert Iran nuclear weapons program. Those documents were clearly fabricated as well.
We sent President Bush a similar warning about bogus intelligence — much of it fabricated by Israel —six weeks before the U.S./UK attack on Iraq, but Bush paid us no heed. This time, we hope you will take note before things spin even further out of control in the Middle East. In short, Israel’s “new” damaging documents on Iran were fabricated by the Israelis themselves.
The Bush administration account of how the documents on Iran got into the hands of the CIA is not true. We can prove that the actual documents originally came not from Iran but from Israel. And the documents were never authenticated by the CIA or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Two former Directors-General of the IAEA, Hans Blix and Mohamed ElBaradei, have publicly expressed suspicion that the documents were fabricated. And forensic examination of the documents yielded multiple signs that they are fraudulent.
We urge you to insist on an independent inquiry into the actual origins of these documents. We believe that the renewed attention being given to claims that Iran is secretly working to develop nuclear weapons betokens a transparent attempt to stoke hostility toward Iran, with an eye toward helping “justify” pulling out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran.
... Completely absent from the usual discussion of this general problem is the reality that Israel already has a secret nuclear arsenal of more than a hundred nuclear weapons. To the extent Israel’s formidable deterrent is more widely understood, arguments that Israel genuinely fears an Iranian nuclear threat any time soon lose much of their power. Only an extreme few suggest that Iran’s leaders are bent on risking national suicide. What the Israelis are after is regime change in Tehran. And they have powerful allies with similar aims.
For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
Richard H. Black, Senator of Virginia, 13th District; Colonel US Army (ret.); Former Chief, Criminal Law Division, Office of the Judge Advocate General, the Pentagon (associate VIPS)
Kathleen Christison, Senior Analyst on Middle East, CIA (ret.)
Philip Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq & Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
Michael S. Kearns, Captain,Wing Commander, RAAF (ret.); Intelligence Officer & ex-Master SERE Instructor
John Kiriakou, former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Edward Loomis, NSA Cryptologic Computer Scientist (ret.)
David MacMichael, Ph.D., former senior estimates officer, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst; CIA Presidential briefer (ret.)
Elizabeth Murray,former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East, National Intelligence Council & CIA political analyst (ret.)
Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
Gareth Porter, author/journalist (associate VIPS)
Scott Ritter, former MAJ., USMC, former UN Weapon Inspector, Iraq
Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
Robert Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
Ann Wright, Colonel, US Army (ret.); also Foreign Service Officer who resigned in opposition to the US war on Iraq
50.000 Unterschriften, SIPRI, internationaler Aufruf "Disarm! Don't Arm!" und 1. Mai
Newsletter Nummer 7 - Abrüsten statt Aufrüsten, Mai 2018
... Anton Hofreiter (MdB, Grüne): Deutschland ist der viertgrößte Rüstungsexporteur weltweit. Der Bundesregierung scheint es– trotz gegenteiliger Bekundungen - ziemlich egal zu sein, wohin deutsche Waffen gelangen - in Spannungsgebiete und Krisenregionen, zum Beispiel nach Saudi-Arabien, Ägypten oder in die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate - und wie sie die Situation dort anheizen.
Neue Entspannungspolitik - Jetzt
The Cold War Culture War
By James Carden, American Affairs Journal 29 May 2018 (in cache, deutsche Auszüge)
America’s growing animus towards all things Russian is also characterized by the hostility borne of a frustrated project of liberal cultural imperialism. In the years following the end of the Soviet Union, the idea that Russia was “ours to lose” gained wide currency in American foreign policy circles.
The Clinton administration sought to dismantle the remaining state apparatus of Soviet-era Russia and replace it with a new liberal civil society that took its cues from Washington. In that way, it was believed, Russia could never again pose a challenge to the West.
Of course, such efforts did not succeed, but our “culture war” approach to foreign policy has only intensified since then. The failure of this project has contributed significantly to the present animus towards Russia and continues to hinder more reasonable diplomatic relations.
Post–Cold War Dreams and Disappointments
Shaping and defining the acceptable confines of Russian “civil society” has been an ongoing American project for much of the past quarter century. Writing for The Nation in 1999, David Rieff observed that, at the time, “most well-intentioned people now view the rise of civil society as the most promising political development of the post–Cold War era.” 3 That was certainly the case with the undoubtedly well-intentioned planners in the Clinton White House, who sought to harness the latent energy of Russian civil society (or at least those segments of it that were deemed to be consistent with the project of “Westernizing” the former Soviet state).
[compare this with Jeffrey Sachs's "What I did in Russia"
"I also harbored hopes that the incoming Clinton Administration would be different from the outgoing Bush Administration with regard to assistance and to formulating a broad policy of Western engagement.
My hopes were soon dashed. The year 1993 was even more dreadful than 1992. When the incoming Clinton Administration declared “It’s the Economy, Stupid,” they meant it. Foreign policy issues were remarkably low on the radar screen. There was absolutely no interest in a significant assistance plan for Russia, nor did key officials on Russian policy have any knowledge of economics. "
As Strobe Talbott, the Clinton administration’s primary Russia hand, admitted in 2002, “ . . . we invested a lot of our bilateral aid program in trying to help Russian NGOs, independent media outlets, and local reformers change the bad habits of the past and put in place the institutions of a modern society, economy, and political culture.” 4
In this way, the U.S. State Department, rather than acting as the government’s lead agent of diplomatic engagement with another sovereign country, instead acted more in the manner of an NGO, picking winners and losers from among a country’s political, social, and religious life, with predictably dismal results.
Needless to say, the project of trying to remake Russia—economically, culturally, politically—in America’s image went terribly awry.
... Das Scheitern des Projekts, Russland in den 1990er Jahren neu zu gestalten, hat die amerikanischen Wirtschafts-, Medien- und politischen Eliten, die darauf unklugerweise gebaut hatten, in Schrecken versetzt. Zu gegebener Zeit führte diese Enttäuschung nicht zu einer neuen Einsicht über die Weisheit solcher Bemühungen, sondern motivierte zu einer Suche nach jemandem oder etwas, dem man die Schuld geben konnte. ...
... In seiner Rede vor der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz im Februar 2007 geißelte Putin die Vereinigten Staaten wegen wiederholter Verletzungen des Völkerrechts. Diese Rede könnte der point of no return gewesen sein. im folgenden Jahrzehnt wird das amerikanische politische Establishment, Putin zu isolieren, zu untergraben und zu verfluchen. Der Grund dafür ist einfach: Die »unipolare Vorstellung« des amerikanischen Establishments, die unmittelbar nach dem Ende des Kalten Krieges entstand und von der Bush-Regierung nach dem 11. September absurd in die Länge gezogen wurde, hatte keinen Platz für einen russischen Präsidenten wie Putin, der in München erklärte: „Russland ist ein Land mit einer mehr als tausendjährigen Geschichte. Es hat immer das Privileg einer unabhängigen Außenpolitik genutzt. Wir werden diese Tradition auch heute nicht ändern.“ ...
Sophie & Co., rt, Published time: 8 Jun, 2018 (transcript in cache)
... I’m actually opposed to the sanctions against Russia entirely for the reason that I don’t think sanctions work. Look at Cuba. Over the last 50 years the sanctions had no impact whatsoever in changing the policy of the leadership of Cuba. Sanctions are useful in terms of bringing people to the negotiating table. But there’s no sign that the West has any desire to bring Russia to the negotiating table to discuss anything.
And if you look at the sanctions as well, if you look at it European-wide, the EU countries have something like 14 times more trade with Russia than the United States. For the United States to impose sanctions against Russia is pretty much an economically light decision. It doesn’t really have impact on their economy. It has a big impact upon the European economy as a whole. And you have countries like Germany that is reliant on Russian imports of gas and do a lot of business with Russia, who are very concerned about the sanctions. Indeed, the new government in Italy who are frankly saying that sanctions against Russia should be dropped. So, again, the world is changing.
The days when the United States could just turn around and say “We’re going to impose the sanctions and everyone else needs to follow”, those days are coming to a close. You even had the French Minister saying that Europeans are not fossil states to the United States, there’s a different mood. Particularly with the Trump administration it’s becoming more difficult for western powers to follow the United States blindly. You’ve had the United States pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord, you’ve had him imposing tariffs against EU nations and you’ve also had the United States pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. In the past Britain always followed, as I said, since the Second World War (with one exception - the Vietnam War) the United States. But it’s becoming increasingly difficult even for the UK to follow the U.S. in all these issues because the UK saying “Hold on, we don’t actually agree”. And it may well come to a point with the sanctions when it’s the Europeans who say: “Look, we’re not going along with these sanctions anymore”.
The Eerie Silence Surrounding the Assange Case
By Dennis J Bernstein, Consortiumnews.com, June 11, 2018 (cache)
“There is a silence among many who call themselves left. The silence is Julian Assange. As every false accusation has fallen away, every bogus smear shown to be the work of political enemies, Julian stands vindicated as one who has exposed a system that threatens humanity. The Collateral Damage video, the war logs of Afghanistan and Iraq, the Cablegate revelations, the Venezuela revelations, the Podesta email revelations … these are just a few of the storms of raw truth that have blown through the capitals of rapacious power. The fakery of Russia-gate, the collusion of a corrupt media and the shame of a legal system that pursues truth-tellers have not been able to hold back the raw truth of WikiLeaks revelations. They have not won, not yet, and they have not destroyed the man. Only the silence of good people will allow them to win. Julian Assange has never been more isolated. He needs your support and your voice. Now more than ever is the time to demand justice and free speech for Julian. Thank you.”
I have never known anything like it. There is a kind of eerie silence around the Julian Assange case. Julian has been vindicated in every possible way and yet he is isolated as few people are these days. He is cut off from the very tools of his trade, visitors aren’t allowed. I was in London recently and I couldn’t see him, although I spoke to people who had seen him. Rafael Correa, the former president of Ecuador, said recently that he regarded what they are doing to Julian now as torture. It was Correa’s government that gave Julian political refuge, which has been betrayed now by his successor, the government led by Lenin Moreno, which is back to sucking up to the United States in the time-honored way, with Julian as the pawn and victim.
But really it comes down to the British government. Although he is still in a foreign embassy and actually has Ecuadorian nationality, his right of passage out of that embassy should be guaranteed by the British government. The United Nations Working Party on Unlawful Detentions has made that clear. Britain took part in an investigation which determined that Julian was a political refugee and that a great miscarriage of justice had been imposed on him. It is very good that you are doing this, Dennis, because even in the media outside the mainstream, there is this silence about Julian. The streets outside the embassy are virtually empty, whereas they should be full of people saying that we are with you. The principles involved in this case are absolutely clear-cut. Number one is justice. The injustice done to this man is legion, both in terms of the bogus Swedish case and now the fact that he must remain in the embassy and can’t leave without being arrested, extradited to the United States and ending up in a hell hole. But it is also about freedom of speech, about our right to know, which is enshrined in the United States Constitution. If the Constitution were taken literally, Julian would be a constitutional hero, actually. Instead, I understand the indictment they are trying to concoct reads like a charge of espionage! It’s so ridiculous.That is the situation as I see it, Dennis. It is not a happy one but it is one that people should rally to quickly.
World Beyond War
The Gaping Holes of Russia-gate
By Ray McGovern and William Binney, May 20, 2017 • 98 Comments
Between Russia-gate and President Trump’s potential impeachment, Washington is blending the thrill of McCarthyism and the excitement of Watergate, as ex-U.S. intelligence officials Ray McGovern and William Binney explain.
But what about the “Russian hacking,” the centerpiece of the accusations about Kremlin “interference” to help Trump? Surely, we know that happened. Or do we?
... On March 31, 2017, WikiLeaks released original CIA documents — almost completely ignored by the mainstream media — showing that the agency had created a program allowing it to break into computers and servers and make it look like others did it by leaving telltale signs (like Cyrillic markings, for example). The capabilities shown in what WikiLeaks calls the “Vault 7” trove of CIA documents required the creation of hundreds of millions of lines of source code. At $25 per line of code, that amounts to about $2.5 billion for each 100 million code lines. But the Deep State has that kind of money and would probably consider the expenditure a good return on investment for “proving” the Russians hacked into Democratic Party emails.
In other words, it is altogether possible that the hacking attributed to Russia was actually one of several “active measures” undertaken by a cabal consisting of the CIA, FBI, NSA and Clapper — the same agencies responsible for the lame, evidence-free report of Jan. 6. ...
Still Waiting for Evidence of a Russian Hack
By Ray McGovern Special to Consortium News, June 7, 2018 • 111 Comments
More than two years after the allegation of Russian hacking of the 2016 U.S. presidential election was first made, conclusive proof is still lacking and may never be produced, says Ray McGovern.
... “The WikiLeaks release indicated that Marble was designed for flexible and easy-to-use ‘obfuscation,’ and that Marble source code includes a “de-obfuscator” to reverse CIA text obfuscation.
“More important, the CIA reportedly used Marble during 2016. In her Washington Post report, Nakashima left that out, but did include another significant point made by WikiLeaks; namely, that the obfuscation tool could be used to conduct a ‘forensic attribution double game’ or false-flag operation because it included test samples in Chinese, Russian, Korean, Arabic and Farsi.”
A few weeks later William Binney, a former NSA technical director, and I commented on Vault 7 Marble, and were able to get a shortened op-ed version published in The Baltimore Sun.
The CIA’s reaction to the WikiLeaks disclosure of the Marble Framework tool was neuralgic. Then Director Mike Pompeo lashed out two weeks later, calling Assange and his associates “demons,” and insisting; “It’s time to call out WikiLeaks for what it really is, a non-state hostile intelligence service, often abetted by state actors like Russia.”
Our July 24 Memorandum continued: “Mr. President, we do not know if CIA’s Marble Framework, or tools like it, played some kind of role in the campaign to blame Russia for hacking the DNC. Nor do we know how candid the denizens of CIA’s Digital Innovation Directorate have been with you and with Director Pompeo. These are areas that might profit from early White House review. [ President Trump then directed Pompeo to invite Binney, one of the authors of the July 24, 2017 VIPS Memorandum to the President, to discuss all this. Binney and Pompeo spent an hour together at CIA Headquarters on October 24, 2017, during which Binney briefed Pompeo with his customary straightforwardness. ]
“We also do not know if you have discussed cyber issues in any detail with President Putin. In his interview with NBC’s Megyn Kelly he seemed quite willing – perhaps even eager – to address issues related to the kind of cyber tools revealed in the Vault 7 disclosures, if only to indicate he has been briefed on them. Putin pointed out that today’s technology enables hacking to be ‘masked and camouflaged to an extent that no one can understand the origin’ [of the hack] … And, vice versa, it is possible to set up any entity or any individual that everyone will think that they are the exact source of that attack.
“‘Hackers may be anywhere,’ he said. ‘There may be hackers, by the way, in the United States who very craftily and professionally passed the buck to Russia. Can’t you imagine such a scenario? … I can.’
New attention has been drawn to these issues after I discussed them in a widely published 16-minute interview last Friday.
In view of the highly politicized environment surrounding these issues, I believe I must append here the same notice that VIPS felt compelled to add to our key Memorandum of July 24, 2017:
“Full Disclosure: Over recent decades the ethos of our intelligence profession has eroded in the public mind to the point that agenda-free analysis is deemed well nigh impossible. Thus, we add this disclaimer, which applies to everything we in VIPS say and do: We have no political agenda; our sole purpose is to spread truth around and, when necessary, hold to account our former intelligence colleagues.
“We speak and write without fear or favor. Consequently, any resemblance between what we say and what presidents, politicians and pundits say is purely coincidental.” The fact we find it is necessary to include that reminder speaks volumes about these highly politicized times. ...
Missile Defense, around the world and, perhaps, in space
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist, Volume 74, 2018 - Issue 4: Special issue: Missile Defense, around the world and, perhaps, in space
US Ground-based midcourse missile defense: Expensive and unreliable
Laura Grego, Pages 220-226 | Published online: 28 Jun 2018
By Thomas G. Roberts, June 28, 2018
By James E. Goodby, Theodore A. Postol, June 28, 2018
By George Lewis, Frank von Hippel, June 28, 2018
Paul Craig Roberts (Institute for Political Economy), September 4, 2018 (in cache)
Andrei Martyanov has answered my question
... I think something needs to be done to halt Washington’s provocations before they become so extreme that matters get out of hand.
... I don’t think Washington has yet lost its hubris. My reference to Napoleon and Hitler is meant only as examples of the extraordinary mistakes that people lost in their hubris can make. Ordinary peoples probably do not perceive the limitations on American power that Martyanov describes. What they hear are belligerent US accusations and threats against Russia and the presentation of their own president as a traitor who has to be impeached because he wants peace with Russia and is involved in a conspiracy with Putin against America. With their own perceptions influenced by Washington’s propaganda, populations in the US and Europe cannot serve as constraints on their governments’ belligerence toward Russia. When we read in the British press that the militarily impotent UK is preparing for war with Russia, where is there realization of the real correlation of forces? To say that the UK is preparing for war against Russia is like saying that the local Boy Scout troop is preparing for war against Russia. It makes no sense, and this absence of sense is a big concern.
... My concern is that there are many ways to end up in war. Unanswered provocations and unaddressed open wounds are two ways of getting there. All that I am suggesting is that some thought be given to these possibilities. If provocations produce an unintended showdown, a mistake made with nuclear weapons would be the last mistake of the human race. ...
Facing the central questions of nuclear disarmament
By Aaron Miles, September 10, 2018 (in cache)
UNAC Statement on the War Against Syria
United National Antiwar Coalition (UNAC), 9/19/2018 (in cache)
... The US had been intervening in Syria for several years before the Syrian government asked for Russian help. The US an US allies provide arms, training and even payroll to both local “rebels” in Syria and foreign fighters. Russia has provided training, advice and airpower to back up the Syrians, and also supported their reconciliation ministry, formed in early 2012. They have provided desperately needed civilian aid and used their air force to deliver it. Unlike Russia, the US has not been invited into the country, and its presence is a violation of international law. The US has been a proponent of regime change and social divisiveness within Syria, while blocking the delivery of aid that the Syrian people desperately need. Moreover, the US occupies nearly a third of Syrian land, which is lightly populated but is the location of significant resources the Syrians need to rebuild.
As Syria rids its country of imperialist supported “rebels” and foreign terrorists, we demand:
U.S. would destroy banned Russian warheads if necessary: NATO envoy
Robin Emmott, October 2, 2018,
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Russia must halt its covert development of a banned cruise missile system or the United States will seek to destroy it before it becomes operational, Washington’s envoy to NATO said on Tuesday.
By Geoffrey Robertson, April 19, 2017 BrazilCorruption (in cache)
Abrüsten statt Aufrüsten
Downloads, 11.10.2018 (im Cache)
seit 1992 lt. Bundesverteidigungsministerium
Deutschand für Auslandseinsätze: 21 Mrd. Euro
Deutschland: 37 Mrd.Euro Rüstungshaushalt (seit 2013) - 14 Mrd. Euro für alternative Energien
weltweit (NATO): 1700 (921) Mrd. US-Dollar für Rüstungausgaben - 242 Mrd. US-Dollar für eneuerbare Energien
Deutschland: 21 Mrd. Euro Harz IV, 6.5 Mrd. Euro Wohngeld und Heizung
Deutschland: Elektrifizierung des Bahn-Schienenetzes: > 20 Mrd. Euro
The Shaky Case That Russia Manipulated Social Media to Tip the 2016 Election
by Gareth Porter, October 10, 2018 • 161 Comments
Gareth Porter is an independent investigative journalist and historian writing on US national security policy. His latest book, Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare, was published in February of 2014. Follow him on Twitter: @GarethPorter.
Special to Consortium News
The idea promoted by the NYT’s Shane & Mazzetti that the Russian government seriously threatened to determine the 2016 election does not hold up when the larger social media context is examined more closely, reports Gareth Porter.
In their long recapitulation of the case that Russia subverted the 2016 election, Scott Shane and Mark Mazzetti of The New York Times painted a picture of highly effective Russian government exploitation of social media for that purpose. Shane and Mazzetti asserted that “anti-Clinton, pro-Trump messages shared with millions of voters by Russia could have made the difference” in the election.
“What we now know with certainty: The Russians carried out a landmark intervention that will be examined for decades to come,” they write elsewhere in the 10,000-word article.
But an investigation of the data they cite to show that the Russian campaigns on Facebook and Twitter were highly effective reveals a gross betrayal of journalistic responsibility. Shane and Mazzetti have constructed a case that is fundamentally false and misleading with statistics that exaggerate the real effectiveness of social media efforts by orders of magnitude.
‘Reaching’ 129 Million Americans
The Internet Research Agency (IRA), is a privately-owned company run by entrepreneur Vevgeny V. Prigozhin, who has ties with President Vladimir Putin. Its employees poured out large numbers of social media postings apparently aimed at stoking racial and cultural tensions in the United States and trying to influence U.S. voters in regard to the presidential election, as Shane and Mazzetti suggest. They even adopted false U.S. personas online to get people to attend rallies and conduct other political activities. (An alternative explanation is that IRA is a purely commercial, and not political, operation.)
.... Their most dramatic assertions came in reporting the alleged results of the IRA’s efforts on Facebook. “Even by the vertiginous standards of social media,” they wrote, “the reach of their effort was impressive: 2,700 fake Facebook accounts, 80,000 posts, many of them elaborate images with catchy slogans, and an eventual audience of 126 million Americans on Facebook alone.”
Then, to dramatize that “eventual audience” figure, they observed, “That was not far short of the 137 million people who would vote in the 2016 presidential elections.”
But as impressive as these figures may appear at first glance, they don’t really indicate an effective attack on the U.S. election process at all. In fact, without deeper inquiry into their meaning, those figures were grossly misleading.
A Theoretical Possibility
What Facebook general counsel Colin Stretch actually said in testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee last October was quite different from what the Times reporters claimed. “Our best estimate is that approximately 126,000 million people may have been served one of these [IRA-generated] stories at some time during the two year period,” Stretch said.
Stretch was expressing a theoretical possibility rather than an established accomplishment. Facebook was saying
That is an extremely important finding, because, as Facebook’s Vice President for News Feed, Adam Moseri, acknowledged in 2016, Facebook subscribers actually read only about 10 percent of the stories Facebook puts in their News Feed every day. That means that very few of the IRA stories that actually make it into a subscriber’s news feed on any given day are actually read.
Facebook did conduct research on what it calls “civic engagement” during the election period, and the researchers concluded that the “reach” of the content shared by what they called “fake amplifiers” was “marginal compared to the volume of civic content shared during the U.S. elections.” That reach, they said, was “statistically very small” in relation to “overall engagement on political issues.”
Shane and Mazzaetti thus failed to report any of the several significant caveats and disclaimers from Facebook itself that make their claim that Russian election propaganda “reached” 126 million Americans extremely misleading.
Tiny IRA Twitter Footprint
Shane and Mazzetti’s treatment of the role of Twitter in the alleged Russian involvement in the election focuses on 3,814 Twitter accounts said to be associated with the IRA, which supposedly “interacted with 1.4 million Americans.” Although that number looks impressive without any further explanation, more disaggregated data provide a different picture:
Research by Darren Linvill and Patrick Warren of Clemson University on 2.9 million Tweets from those same 3,814 IRA accounts over a two year period has revealed
The Mysterious 50,000 ‘Russia-Linked’ Accounts
Twitter also determined that another 50,258 automated Twitter accounts that tweeted about the election were associated with Russia and that they have generated a total to 2.1 million Tweets — about 1 % of the total of number election-related tweets during the period.
But despite media coverage of those Tweets suggesting that they originated with the Russian government, the evidence doesn’t indicate that at all. Twitter’s Sean Edgett told the Senate Intelligence Committee last November that Twitter had used an “expansive approach to defining what qualifies as a Russian-linked account.” Twitter considered an account to be “Russian” if any of the following was found:
Edgett admitted in a statement in January, however, that there were limitations on its ability to determine the origins of the users of these accounts. And a past log-in from a Russian IP address does not mean the Russian government controls an account.
The idea promoted by Shane and Mazzetti that the Russian government seriously threatened to determine the winner of the election does not hold up when the larger social media context is examined more closely. Contrary to what the Times’ reporters and the corporate media in general would have us believe, the Russian private sector effort accounted for a minuscule proportion of the election-related output of social media. The threat to the U.S. political system in general and its electoral system in particular is not Russian influence; it’s in part a mainstream news media that has lost perspective on the truth.
Cyber warfare is considered preferable to nuclear warfare.
SWITCHING OFF: The UK is practicing cyberattacks that could black out Moscow
By John Detrixhe October 7, 2018
British defense officials say they have practiced cyber war games that could shut off electricity in Russia’s capital, the Sunday Times (paywall) reports.
The measures are part of a wider range of strategies to hit back at an increasingly assertive Russia—accused of interfering with US elections, cyberattacks on Western targets, and poisoning a former spy on UK soil—without resorting to a full-blown nuclear attack.
“If they sank our aircraft carrier with a nuclear-tipped torpedo, what is our response? There’s nothing between sinking their submarine and dropping a nuclear weapon on northern Kamchatka,” one senior source told the Sunday Times. “This is why cyber is so important; you can go on the offensive and turn off the lights in Moscow to tell them that they are not doing the right things.”
Military planners are looking for options if Russian president Vladimir Putin tests NATO’s resolve by seizing small islands belonging to Estonia, taking control of Libya’s oil reserves, or using ”irregular forces” to attack troops, according to the report.
British troops also recently held their biggest military exercise in 10 years, which included six navy ships and more than 5,000 troops in the Omani desert, to prepare for a confrontation with unconventional Russian forces like those used in Crimea. Cyber weapons are seen as a potential deterrent and a way to avoid a direct military confrontation.
UK defense chiefs are talking up their cyber prowess after a string of alleged Russian hacker exploits, including revelations last week of a Russian computer attack on the international chemical weapons watchdog. The attempted hack was disrupted by Dutch military intelligence with the help from British officials. Also last week, US authorities charged Russian intelligence officers with seeking to hack the nuclear energy company Westinghouse Electric and anti-doping watchdogs.
The announcements suggest world leaders are pushing back against Putin’s increasing aggressive cyber operations, which allegedly includes breaking into the control rooms of vital US electric grids (paywall). Russia, after all, has hammered smaller nations with its cyber weapons in the past. The country disabled computer systems for the Estonia’s parliament, broadcasters, and banks in 2007, according to the Times, and regularly disrupts Ukrainian banking and electrical systems.
The US is expected to announce that it will use its cyber capabilities on behalf of NATO if asked, Reuters reported last week. The US announcement is aimed squarely at Russia, according to a senior defense official, and is part of a British-led effort to stiffen NATO’s cyber capacity. The 29-nation alliance has recognized cyber as a domain of warfare since 2014, but the precise implications haven’t been formalized.
American intelligence shows that Russian hackers broke into the Democratic National Committee and leaked information in the lead-up to the US presidential election. The White House recently warned foreign entities that it would use more offensive measures as part of its revised cyber security strategy. US intelligence reportedly expects a series of hacker attacks before congressional elections next month.
UK war-games cyber attack on Moscow
7 October, 2018,
Troops train for clashes against the Russians
Senior secuity sources have told The Sunday Times they are concerned that Britain has a capability gap that has left commanders withtoo few weapons to meet Kremlins aggression short of firing a Trident nuclear missile. Planning exercises on the threat posed by Russia have left officials "ashen-faced" at the speed with which confrontationwit Moscow could escalate. Whitehall officials have vowed to step up offensive cyber-capabilities including the ability to "turn out the lights" in the Kremlin. ...
Andreas Haggman: A few reactive comments
12 October 2018
... Having recently submitted my thesis on cyber wargaming, I feel it prudent to offer a few reactive comments on the piece ...
1. The military, security and intelligence services, emergency response agencies, and senior political leaders regularly wargame and exercise a whole range of possible scenarios, including cyber attacks. That such games include offensive cyber capabilities should not surprise anyone who follows this topic, and that offensive capabilities target Moscow should not even surprise lay readers who have been following the news: the current geopolitical climate places Russia firmly at the top of the UK’s state-based threats. What, therefore, is different about the current wargames? There is nothing in the article to suggest that these wargames are out of the ordinary for military planners.
2. Without commenting on the character of the UK’s capability gap, I want to stress that using cyber and nuclear rhetoric in the same breath is misplaced. The thinking which has underpinned nuclear doctrine since the 1960s does not readily translate to cyber strategy. Where strategic nuclear weapons were built around assumptions of mutually assured destruction, cyber capabilities are ideally more surgical and specifically targeted. I say ideally because examples like WannaCry and NotPetya have demonstrated how cyber attacks can cause indiscriminate damage across wide geographical areas, though this damage is likely to have been an unintended consequence. Nonetheless, to publicly state, as the senior UK officials in the article do, that nuclear is the next step up from cyber, with no intermediaries, is unnecessarily escalatory and does not consider the full DIME (diplomatic, information, military, economic) spectrum of responses. ...
An Initial Set of Sites That Reliably Echo Russian Propaganda
Is It Propaganda Or Not? , November 30, 2016
... We would ... like to be clear: We strongly believe in the First Amendment rights to freedom of expression and freedom of the press. Diverse and independent media are vital to the health of free society. Non-profit and commercial, alternative and mainstream - all are critical to our democracy. Americans have the right to echo, repeat, be used by, and refer their audiences to Russian official and semi-official state media, including “fake news” propaganda - just as we have the right to analyze and highlight that, without fear or favor. This list was never intended to be “black”. This is NOT a list of “paid” or “knowing” propaganda sources. It is NOT an attempt to censor, blacklist, or tar anyone.
We highlight them because we believe that the public should be able to know that very disparate kinds of online sources frequently display a consistent bias towards Russia in ways that echo, repeat, are used by, and redirect their audiences to Russian official and semi-official state media. We also highlight them to encourage readers to think critically about the media they encounter, especially when it might confirm their ideological preconceptions. We highlight. Unlike the Russian government, we do not censor.
An outlet must consistently and over time meet the full range of our criteria in order to qualify. We are happy to remove any that do not, and we welcome the opportunity to engage with anyone involved in order to constructively move forward.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
PropOrNot is a website that seeks to expose what it calls Russian propaganda and groups that use material from Russian sources. It was featured in a Washington Post article about Russian propaganda and the spread of "fake news". After receiving intense criticism, the Post added a note to the article distancing itself from the website's claims. PropOrNot's methods and anonymity have received criticism from publications such as The New Yorker, Harper's, Fortune, The Intercept, and Rolling Stone.
Meet Clint Watts, a Dubious Russia Meddling 'Expert' Lobbying the U.S. Government to 'Quell Information Rebellions'
With a sketchy past in the counterterror swamp, Watts has suggested media censorship as a remedy to Russian interference.
By Max Blumenthal / AlterNet
November 8, 2017, 2:16 PM GMT (in cache)
McCarthyism Inc: Introducing the Counter-Terror 'Experts' Hyping Russian Threats and Undermining Our Civil Liberties
Revelations about Russia's use of social media in the 2016 elections are being used as a pretext for suppressing dissent by some dubious characters.
By Max Blumenthal / AlterNet
November 10, 2017, 2:26 PM GMT (in cache)
By Max Blumenthal and Jeb Sprague, October 23, 2018 (Summary)
This October, Facebook and Twitter deleted the accounts of hundreds of users, including many alternative media outlets maintained by American users. Among those wiped out in the coordinated purge were popular sites that scrutinized police brutality and U.S. interventionism, like The Free Thought Project, Anti-Media, and Cop Block, along with the pages of journalists like Rachel Blevins.
For the first time since the Cuban crisis, nuclear war threat is real
Stephen Cohen, Sophie & Co, Russia Today, Published time: 5 Nov, 2018
... What was done in 1987, signed and then implemented, abolishing these weapons was absolutely historic - a precedent that gave us hope for the future. Now, I agree with one thing that Bolton said, because it’s true. When Gorbachev and Reagan and your grandfather participated in that decision in 1987, we were in a bilateral nuclear world. And today we’re in a multilateral nuclear world. Back then only two nuclear superpowers had this kind of weapons. Now a lot of countries - maybe as many as six, seven or eight - have these so-called intermediate range weapons. So the treaty only affected two countries. But if something needs repair but it’s good, you try to fix it. ...
I’m publishing a new book this month called “War with Russia?”, and the theme of the book and I put in personal terms, is that the first time in my long life, at least since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962
... because of the politics, not the security thinking, but the politics in Washington today in one word - I’m publishing a new book this month called “War with Russia?”, and the theme of the book and I put in personal terms, is that the first time in my long life, at least since the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, I think there’s a real chance of war between the United States and Russia. And we can’t assume that if that happens it won’t end in a nuclear war. That’s why this moment you and I are discussing, Sophie, is so important.
Jennifer Rankin in Brussels, Tue 13 Nov 2018
Chancellor’s remarks come after Trump steps up attack on French leader over same idea
... Angela Merkel has said EU leaders should one day consider “a real, true European army” shortly after Donald Trump ramped up a Twitter attack on Emmanuel Macron over the same idea.
Speaking to the European parliament in Strasbourg, the German chancellor backed the bold step in European defence policy, as part of a speech extolling the need for EU cooperation in migration, climate change and counter-terrorism. “The times when we could rely on others is past,” she said.
To a mix of applause and jeers from Eurosceptic MEPs, she said: “We have to look at the vision of one day creating a real, true European army.” The chancellor said the idea would complement Nato, but gave no details on when the ambitious idea could become reality.
Angry with Trump, Macron Calls for European Army: Real or Theater?
Loud & Clear
Brian Becker, John Kiriakou, 14.11.2018
On today's episode of Loud & Clear, Brian Becker and John Kiriakou are joined by Peter Kuznick, a professor of history and director of the Nuclear Studies Institute at American University and the co-author with Oliver Stone of the book and TV show “The Untold History of the United States,” and Alexander Mercouris, the editor-in-chief of The Duran.
listen to time slot: 4:34 - 28:57
Confessions of a Rogue Nuclear Regulator
by Gregory B. Jaczko, Jan. 15, 2019
A shocking exposé from the most powerful insider in nuclear regulation about how the nuclear energy industry endangers our lives—and why Congress does nothing to stop it.
Greg Jaczko never planned things to turn out this way. A Birkenstocks-wearing physics PhD, he had never heard of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) when he came to Washington and—thanks to the determination of a powerful senator—found himself at the agency’s head. He felt like Dorothy invited behind the curtain at Oz.
The problem was that Jaczko wasn’t the kind of leader the NRC had seen before: he had no ties to the nuclear industry, few connections in Washington, and no agenda other than to ensure that nuclear technology was deployed safely. And so he witnessed what outsiders like him were never meant to see, including an agency overpowered by the industry it was meant to regulate and a political system determined to keep it that way. After the shocking nuclear disaster at Fukushima in Japan, and the American nuclear industry’s refusal to make the changes necessary to prevent a catastrophe like that from happening here, Jaczko started saying something aloud that no one else had dared: nuclear power has fatal flaws.
Written in a tone that’s equal parts self-deprecating, puzzled, and passionate, Confessions of a Rogue Nuclear Regulator tells the story of a man who got pushed from his high perch for fighting to keep Americans safe. Never before has the chairman of the world’s foremost nuclear regulatory agency challenged the nuclear industry to expose how these companies put us at risk. Because if we (and they) don’t act now, there will be another Fukushima. Only this time, it could happen here.
„Chemiewaffen-Einsätze in Syrien – Aufklärung der Fakten und völkerrechtliche Konsequenzen“
Zuletzt aktualisiert: 14. November 2018
Einladung zur öffentlichen Veranstaltung der IALANA am 23.11.2018 von 19:30-21:30 UhrHumboldt Universität, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Hauptgebäude, Raum 2094
Mit Sorge Blicken wir auf den Konflikt in Syrien. Nach dem Giftgasangriff mit Sarin auf Ghouta vom 21.8.2013 hatte US-Präsident Obama einen Großangriff auf Assad vorbereitet, der nur durch den Beitritt Syriens zur Chemiewaffenkonvention und die Vernichtung der syrischen Bestände und Produktionseinrichtungen unter Kontrolle der Organisation für das Verbot von Chemiewaffen (OPCW) abgewendet werden konnte. Allerdings kommt es seit dem in Syrien weiterhin zu Einsätzen von Chemiewaffen. Die Kriegsparteien schieben sich regelmäßig gegenseitig die Verantwortung hierfür zu.
Im April 2017 nahm die Regierung der USA einen solchen Chemiewaffeneinsatz zum Anlass für einen massiven Luftangriff auf Stellungen und Einrichtungen der Syrischen Nationalarmee ohne die Ergebnisse der angelaufenen Untersuchungen abzuwarten. Schon im Vorfeld der angekündigten Rückeroberung von Idlib, der letzten großen von islamistischen Kräften gehaltenen Region durch die Syrische Regierung wurden auch im Deutschen Bundestag Optionen militärischen Eingreifens erörtert, falls es dort erneut zum Einsatz von Chemiewaffen kommen sollte. Dabei wird unterstellt, dass Urheber für eine solche völkerrechtswidrige Kriegsführung allein die syrische Regierung sein könne. Eine Eskalation des Konflikts mit deutscher militärischer Beteiligung ist somit nicht ausgeschlossen.
Wir möchten aus diesem Anlass der Frage nachgehen, welche Möglichkeiten der Organisation für das Verbot von Chemiewaffen (OPCW) und der UNO zur Verfügung stehen, um einen Chemiewaffeneinsatz zuverlässig zu untersuchen und welche völkerrechtlichen Konsequenzen aus den Untersuchungs-ergebnissen zu ziehen sind.
Andererseits wird eine rechtliche Darstellung und Bewertung der Geschehnisse vorgenommen.
Zur Diskussion dieser Fragen haben wir folgende Experten eingeladen:
28. August 2018 um 9:09 Uhr | Verantwortlich: Redaktion (im Cache)
OPCW-Bericht vom 6. Juli 2018 zu Douma
Jan van Aken, 7 Juli.2018
Nein, die OPCW hat kein Chlorgas in Douma gefunden und geht nicht davon aus, dass Giftgas eingesetzt wurde. Noch ist alles offen. Anbei eine kurze Zusammenfassung - aber eine Frage an
Woher kommen diese Falschmeldungen? Ich kann nicht verstehen, wie leichtfertig deutsche Medien mit einem derart wichtigen -weil kriegsrelevanten- Thema umgehen. Mich würde ineressieren, wo diese gleichlautenden Falschmeldungen ihren Ursprung haben, und wie es sein kann, dass führende deutsche Medien hier derart unsauber recherchiren.
Related Information from OPCW
America’s Permanent-War Complex
By GARETH PORTER • November 15, 2018
Eisenhower's worst nightmare has come true, as defense mega-contractors climb into the cockpit to ensure we stay overextended.
.... The dependence on the private sector in the Pentagon and the intelligence community had reached such a point that it raised a serious question about whether the workforce was now “obligated to shareholders rather than to the public interest,” as [Washington Post reporters] Priest and Arkin reported. And both Gates and Panetta acknowledged to them their concerns about that issue. ...
Contractors could pay much higher salaries and consulting fees than government agencies, so experienced Pentagon and CIA officers soon left their civil service jobs by the tens of thousands for plum positions with firms that often paid twice as much as the government for the same work.
... A 2010 Boston Globe investigation showed that the percentage of 3- and 4-star generals who left the Pentagon to take jobs as consultants or executives with defense contractors, which was already at 45 percent in 1993, had climbed to 80 percent by 2005 ..."The Department of Defense is no longer a war-fighting organization, it’s a business enterprise."
... In the first half of 2013 alone, four major drone contractors—General Atomics, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Boeing—spent $26.2 million lobbying Congress .. In the first quarter of 2016 Air Force data showed that 61 percent of the weapons dropped in Afghanistan were from the drones.
In the new permanent-war complex the interests of the arms contractors have increasingly dominated over the interests of the civilian Pentagon and the military services, and dominance has became a new driving force for continued war. Even though those bureaucracies, along with the CIA, seized the opportunity to openly conduct military operations in one country after another, the drone war has introduced a new political dynamic into the war system: the drone makers who have powerful clout in Congress can use their influence to block or discourage an end to the permanent war—especially in Afghanistan—which would sharply curtail the demand for drones.
... that original complex, organized merely to maximize the production of arms to enhance the power and resources of both the Pentagon and their contractor allies, has become a much more serious menace to the security of the American people than even Eisenhower could have anticipated. Now it is a system of war that powerful arms contractors and their bureaucratic allies may have the ability to maintain indefinitely.
RT-News - November 27, 2018 (17:00 MSK)
Published time: 29 Nov, 2018 07:45 Edited time: 29 Nov, 2018 07:56
Sunday's (Nov. 25, 2018) clash in the Kerch Strait
Testimony of Vladimir Lesovoy, the lieutenant commander, Ukrainian Navy, of one of the Ukrainian ships detained in the Kerch Strait after [Russia] accused Kiev of masterminding a provocation:
"We entered the Kerch Strait. After crossing the Russian border, we had visual contact with the Russian border service vessels. I consciously ignored their command to stop. On our boat we had small arms and a machine gun with ammunition. I was aware that the action of the Ukrainian vessels in the Kerch Straits were roguish. I was following my orders to move our ships from the port of Odessa to Mariupol"
Three Ukrainian ships were fired upon and detained by Russia which said they illegally entered its territorial waters.
Russian security services revealed new details, chronologically, as to what happened on Sunday in the Kerch Strait. They say they detected the Ukrainian naval fotilla early on, heading into Russian territorial waters. They were warned that if they intended to cross the Strait of Kerch after they well knew -as they had done previously- that they should send notification of their intent to cross the strait. It's a busy place. There's a lot of ships, tankers, merchant men, fishing vessels waiting, queueing to cross through a narrow archway under a bridge, of safety concerns. There's queues, there's lines, and there is a procedure in place. The Ukrainians have followed it through a number of times.
Time sequence of events
Press Centre Command, Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
"Contrary to the UN convention, Russian border ships carried out a frankly aggressive action against the vessels of the navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine"
The Federal Security Service is also in the possession of information that said the provocative actions of the Ukrainian fleet were ordered by the government in Kiev. The territorial waters in which some of this showdown, this chase took place in were Russian waters even before the re-union of Krimea and Russia. Furthermore, the Russian Federal Security Service revealed that onboard the vessels of the Ukrainian flotilla were SBU officers, that is Ukrainian Intelligence agents. This crossing seemingly wasn't just an ordinary re-stationing of naval assetts but rather a special operation, it seems, with a mission overseen by intelligence agents. If indeed the case, perhaps the mission would still give the president a reason, justification for implementation of martial law, as he has done.
Moscow Warns Kiev Against Attempts to Unilaterally Change Azov Sea's Status
© Sputnik / Georgy Zimarev, 21:02 21.11.2018(updated 10:43 22.11.2018) (in cache)
Loud & Clear
11:25 27.11.2018, Brian Becker, John Kiriakou
Tweet by Richard Haass
11:56 PM - 25 Nov 2018 from New York, USA
(cited by John Kiriakou in Loud and Clear) (in cache)
"In the wake of latest Russia military action vs. Ukraine US and Europe should
CuckMiller @cam294cam Nov 26
Replying to @RichardHaass
Do we really know if Russia really did this? Maybe they did maybe they did not. Wait until Russia finishes their investigation. Putin says he did not do it. Why should I not believe him. Yours truly, Donnie.
By Siegfried S. Hecker, December 4, 2018
The required actions included
it was Bush’s phone call that led to what David Hoffman in his 2009 book, The Dead Hand, called “the most spontaneous and dramatic reversal of the Cold War arms race.”
... The specter of another Chernobyl nuclear accident, of nuclear weapons and nuclear materials winding up in Iraq, Iran, or North Korea, or of a nuclear environmental disaster haunted Washington. The international community feared for
Bush’s unilateral reductions in the US nuclear arsenal would give Gorbachev the opportunity to reduce his stockpile of vulnerable nuclear weapons and materials.
... Fortunately, in the fall of 1991, both countries had visionary leadership by dedicated professionals in government, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to help usher them through these uncertain times. On December 12, 1991, President Bush signed into law the “Soviet Nuclear Threat Reduction Act of 1991.” The Nunn-Lugar program, named for its primary sponsors, Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar, provided the vision, funds, and guidance for US-Soviet nuclear cooperation for the next two decades.
... As a result of the October 1986 Reagan-Gorbachev Reykjavik Summit, the nuclear laboratories were directed to conduct reciprocal nuclear tests at each other’s test sites and allow for on-site verification to gain the confidence needed to ratify the 1974 Threshold Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
After the reciprocal nuclear tests on Aug. 17, 1988, at the Nevada Test Site and Sept. 14, 1988, at the Soviet Semipalatinsk Test Site, we nuclear scientists from the two countries tried to convince our governments that it was time to meet and cooperate on emerging new nuclear dangers, namely the safety and security of nuclear weapons and materials and concerns about nuclear proliferation and terrorism.
... 1992 In less than two months, John Nuckolls, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and I found ourselves inside the Russian closed nuclear cities. We got an unprecedented look into the Russian nuclear complex. This visit launched US-Russian lab-to-lab cooperation, and for me it was the first of 56 trips to Russia. During the first post-Soviet decade, my efforts were directed at helping the Russian nuclear complex with what we called the four loose nuke problems—
In recent years, my main focus has been on collaborative efforts to continue cooperation in the never-ending quest for improved nuclear safety and nuclear security.
... The actions of Bush and Gorbachev in 1991 resulted in the largest step back from nuclear midnight ever marked on the “Doomsday Clock” of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
M. V. Ramana & Mariia Kurando, 07 Jan 2019 (in cache)
In July 2018, the Kremlin released the official transcript of a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and the nation’s special-services employees, when he thanked them for ensuring security during the 2018 World Cup in Russia. Putin revealed in his speech that during the preceding weeks, as millions of people watched the world’s best players kick a soccer ball, “almost 25 million cyberattacks and other criminal attempts on Russia’s information infrastructure … were neutralized”
(Cerulus 2018 Cerulus, L. 2018. “Putin: World Cup Triggered Millions of Cyberattacks on Russia.” POLITICO. July 16. https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-world-cup-triggered-millions-of-cyberattacks-on-russia/. [Google Scholar]).
Millions of cyberattacks over a couple of weeks is a frightening revelation, but the attacks are of particular concern because Russia has the world’s largest deployed arsenal of nuclear weapons.
The Federation of American Scientists estimates that as of early 2018,
Russia’s nuclear arsenal has 4,350 warheads, of which about 800 are deployed on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
(Kristensen and Norris 2018
Kristensen, Hans M., and Robert S. Norris. 2018. “Russian Nuclear Forces, 2018.” Bulletin Of The Atomic Scientists 74 (3): 185–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2018.1462912.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®], , [Google Scholar]).
Russian officials have stated that these missiles are ready to be launched within “several dozen seconds” or “a few tens of seconds”
(Kristensen and McKinzie 2012
Kristensen, H. M., and M. Matthew. 2012. Reducing Alert Rates of Nuclear Weapons. Geneva, Switzerland: United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research. UNIDIR/2012/6. http://www.unidir.ch/files/publications/pdfs/reducing-alert-rates-of-nuclear-weapons-en-307.pdf [Google Scholar], 4–5).
The United States also has hundreds of nuclear weapons in a similar posture.
Long-time nuclear policy analysts Bruce Blair, Hal Feiveson and Frank von Hippel worry about the possibility that “one day someone will mistakenly launch nuclear-tipped missiles, either because of a technical failure or a human error – a mistake made, perhaps, in the rush to respond to false indications of an (enemy) attack ”
(Blair, Feiveson, and Hippel 1997
Blair, B., H. Feiveson, and F. von Hippel. 1997. “Taking Nuclear Weapons off Hair-Trigger Alert.” Scientific American, November. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1197-74.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], , [Google Scholar], 76).
There are two major steps that the two countries could take to lower the risk of inadvertent nuclear war resulting from a cyberattack.
Daniel Ellsberg on the creation of nuclear doomsday machines, the institutional insanity that maintains them, and a practical plan for dismantling them.
By Robert Wiblin and Keiran Harris Š September 24th, 2018 (excerpts)
Macht uns Russland nicht zum Feind – für eine Politik der Entspannung, der gemeinsamen Sicherheit und der Abrüstung
NaturwissenschaftlerInnen-Initiative für Frieden und Zukunftsfähigkeit, Marienstr. 19/20 Š 10117 Berlin 2. Februar 2019 (im Cache)
Die Politik gegenüber Russland war und ist immer umstritten - die deutsch-russischen Beziehungen sind ein Seismograf für den Friedensprozess in Europa.
Das Verhältnis von Russland und dem Westen ist geprägt durch eine lange und wechselvolle Geschichte. Die Lehren dürfen nicht vergessen werden und sind ein Wegweiser für Gegenwart und Zukunft. Für Russland kam aus dem Westen meist nichts Gutes, von Napoleon über Hitler bis zur nuklearen Hochrüstung im Kalten Krieg. 27 Millionen Tote des Zweiten Weltkrieges bleiben unvergessen.
wurden die Chancen auf eine echte Partnerschaft in einem „gemeinsamen Haus Europa“ vertan. Die Grundlagen dazu wurden untergraben durch Entwicklungen wie
wurde Russland zu einem Feind gemacht, der nun seine eigenen Interessen auch gegen den Westen verfolgt und damit viel Kritik auf sich zieht, nach innen der Umgang mit der Opposition, nach außen die Stärkung nationalistischer Kräfte. Ein Großteil der westlichen Presse wirkt dabei hemmungslos am Feindbild Russland mit.
Nach dem Motto "Die Russen sind an allem schuld" wird Russland in maßloser Weise für alles Mögliche verantwortlich gemacht, bis hin zur
Eine Verständigung mit Russland ist dringlich, da die lösungsorientierte Bewältigung der globalen Herausforderungen, vom
eine gemeinsame Verantwortung und solidarische Antworten erfordern. Menschenrechte Demokratie, Gewaltenteilung und Parlamentarismus sind universelle Politikkonzepte, die als Basis für Verständigung und Menschlichkeit dienen sollten, und nicht als Kampfbegriffe für gegenseitige Beschuldigungen.
Es geht darum,
sind unverzichtbare Bestandteile einer neuen Entspannungspolitik, die Krieg als Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln verhindert.
Ein Kernelement bleibt die nukleare Abrüstung. Statt bestehende Abrüstungsabkommen wie den INF-Vertrag aufzukündigen, ist das Verbot und die Abschaffung von Atomwaffen das Gebot der Stunde und die sicherste Möglichkeit, einen Atomkrieg in einer fragilen Weltlage zu verhindern.
Das ist Russlandpolitik im 21. Jahrhundert. Geschichtliche Erfahrungen und Lösungskonzepte wie die von Willy Brandt realisierte Entspannungspolitik müssen genutzt und weiterentwickelt werden statt sie immer weiter zu entleeren.
Internationale Münchner Friedenskonferenz
Am 9. und 15.-17.02. findet die 17. Internationale Münchner Friedenskonferenz statt. Die NaturwissenschaftlerInnen-Initiative gehört zum Trägerkreis
Programm und Plakat
"Wissenschaft zwischen Krieg und Frieden: Was können Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler für den Frieden tun?"
Kongress, Technische Universität Berlin, 15.-16.06.2018.
Folgende Beiträge als Video:
- Kein Krieg ohne Wissenschaft - keine Wissenschaft ohne Krieg? Die Wissenschaft als Teil organisierter Gewalt und ihr kritisches Gegenüber: Lothar Brock (VDW)
- Atomwaffen: von der Sicherheitslogik zur Friedenslogik: Alex Rosen (IPPNW)
- Die Herausforderungen unserer Zeit – Kriege in der globalisierten Welt: Reiner Braun (NatWiss, IPB)
- Militarisierung der Forschung in Deutschland und Europa: Claudia Haydt (IMI)
- Zivilklausel in Deutschland und in Japan: Hartwig Hummel (Uni Düsseldorf, W&F)
- Podiumsdiskussion, Hartmut Grassl (VDW), Werner Ruf (Friedensforscher), Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker (Club of Rome), Hartwig Hummel (Uni Düsseldorf, W&F)
- Wissenschaft und Frieden (exemplarische Bsp.) | Berichte aus den Gesprächsrunden
- Friedensforschung und ihre Ambivalenz: Werner Ruf (Friedensforscher)
- Klimakonflikte und Beiträge der Wissenschaft zum nachhaltigen Frieden: Jürgen Scheffran (NatWiss)
- Was können die Gewerkschaften für den Frieden tun?: Marlis Tepe (GEW)
- Verantwortung der Wissenschaft in Zeiten zunehmender Militarisierung: Sybille Brosius (NatWiss)
By Scott Ritter • February 1, 2019
... The current crop of national intelligence chiefs are cut from the same cloth as their predecessors. They are careerists who have risen to the top not through their analytical or operational talents, but through their willingness to conform to a system that is designed not to challenge conventional thinking—especially when such thinking sustains policies that have been given the imprimatur of the entrenched establishment. ...
... Trump is wrong—there never was a nuclear weapons program in Iran—but he is right in pointing out the inconsistencies in the intelligence community’s position.
The same holds true on the other policy issues where the intelligence community took issue with Trump’s actions.
When it comes to foreign policy, Donald Trump is no Richard Nixon or George H.W. Bush. But neither is he a Bill Clinton, George W. Bush or Barack Obama, caught in a series of foreign policy traps thanks to a lack of vision and their collective willingness to accept at face value a picture painted by an intelligence community conditioned only to see threats. Trump is right to call them out. They should be informing him on foreign policy and national security matters, not dictating or critiquing his policies. The track record of these so-called professionals is not impressive. They would do well to heed the president’s exhortation that they “go back to school.”
Scott Ritter is a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who served in the former Soviet Union implementing arms control treaties, in the Persian Gulf during Operation Desert Storm, and in Iraq overseeing the disarmament of WMD. He is the author of Dealbreaker: Donald Trump and the Unmaking of the Iran Nuclear Deal (2018) by Clarity Press.
America Is Not Listening
by Oliver Stone, facebook, 6. März 2018
Judging by the US MSM response to Putin's speech on Thursday (attached below at 12 minutes), it seems we have a massive breakdown in understanding nuclear issues in this country. For us it's a matter of boasting, I guess -- Trump's "fire and fury" and the end of Earth. But those paying attention should know that last Thursday, in a low-key but monumental response to American threats, and without much fanfare, Mr. Putin stated what Russia has been doing to protect itself from what they view as a dangerous bully. It surprised many of us, I believe most likely, our over-budgeted Pentagon and over-rated CIA with a pretty stark statement, if not proof, that the Russians can defend themselves quite well for about 12% of the defense budget we waste.
Gilbert Doctorow, "Missile-gate: US Intel Misses Russia's Big Advances in Nuclear Parity," Consortiumnews, http://bit.ly/2FgUy9H.
"Putin's Message Couldn't Be Clearer," Off Guardian, http://bit.ly/2tklwaE.
Tyler Durden, "Putin: 'Russia's New Hypersonic Missile Can Rip US Defenses Apart," Zero Hedge, http://bit.ly/2F4jZuJ.
Paul Craig Roberts, "Putin's State of the Union Reveals Russian Superiority in Nuclear Weapons Technology," http://bit.ly/2D1R8Bv.
Americans are equally misguided by the MSM on Syria. Here Jeffrey Sachs, who've I come to admire, presents a wise analysis of American policy in Syria and the lies floated by Hillary Clinton. This of course ties into Russia and Iran on another front. It's all part of one big mess and we keep moving towards the dogpile. Please let us turn in another direction before it's too late.
Jeffrey Sachs, "Ending America's Disastrous Role in Syria," Common Dreams, http://bit.ly/2Fgf9KW.
By Scott Ritter, truthdig, 12 February 2019
— The world is on the edge of a catastrophe, but the U.S. is whistling blithely down the path of nuclear destruction it has helped to pave.
... William Perry, former secretary of defense under President Bill Clinton, helped unveil the 2019 iteration of the Doomsday Clock. In his remarks, he highlighted President Donald Trump’s declaration to withdraw from the landmark 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty as an indication of the collapsing relationship between the U.S. and Russia. “When you withdraw from treaties, you are losing this important vehicle of dialogue,” Perry observed. “My own judgment is, relative to a year ago, we are slightly worse off.”
I agree with Perry—the world is worse off today than it was a year ago. I disagree, however, with his use of the word “slightly” to describe the situation we face, and I dissent from the bulletin’s decision to stay the hands of the Doomsday Clock. Humanity is sleepwalking toward global annihilation, furthered by a collective amnesia about the threat posed by nuclear weapons, especially in an environment void of meaningful arms control. On Feb. 2, the United States suspended its obligations under the INF Treaty, beginning a 180-day process that, once concluded, will lead to the abandonment of that agreement. Russia soon followed suit. The death of the INF Treaty represents far more than simply the end of an era. It is the end of a process—a mindset—that recognized nuclear weapons for their globe-killing reality and sought their reduction and eventual elimination. ...
James Blight, janet Lang, Centre for International Governance Innovation, U Waterloo
Published on Nov 5, 2012 on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis
The Balsillie School of International Affairs (BSIA) is the global headquarters for the observance of the fiftieth anniversary of the October 1962 Cuban missile crisis. The initiative is led by BSIA faculty members, James Blight and janet Lang, and BSIA digital scholar in residence, Koji Masutani. The "command post" for this effort is their website, www.armageddonletters.com. During this event, Jim and janet discussed their book, The Armageddon Letters, in a transmedia setting: using short films, graphic art and other platforms represented on their site. In The Armageddon Letters and in their presentation, Jim and janet invite readers and audience members into a virtual time machine that will leave you breathless at the narrowness of humanity's escape, and with a determination never to let anything so dangerous ever happen again.
James Blight is best known for having created, refined, and applied an innovative research method called critical oral history (COH). The method involves three kinds of knowledge, which merge simultaneously in carefully choreographed, but often highly creative conferences. They are:
Jim and his collaborator, janet Lang (a research professor at Balsillie School of International Affairs (BSIA), have been the principal organizers of more than two-dozen COH conferences on several continents on a wide range of events in recent U.S. foreign policy. These include
The method evolved in the context of a systematic reexamination of the October 1962 Cuban missile crisis, involving the most senior living decision-makers from the U.S., Russia and Cuba. Beginning at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government (1984-1989), then at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies (1990-2009), they co-organized six COH conferences on the crisis, in the U.S., Russia, Antigua and Cuba. These COH meetings, and subsequent publications based on the meetings, are widely credited with fundamentally altering our view of the crisis, which is revealed to have been more dangerous than was believed at the time, and during the quarter century following the crisis.
Jim Blight and janet Lang uncover the JFK we don't know
janet M. Lang
Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly
Vladimir Putin, February 20, 2019 13:30 Moscow (in cache)
... I would like to emphasise again that we need peace for sustainable long-term development. Our efforts to enhance our defence capability are for only one purpose: to ensure the security of this country and our citizens so that nobody would even consider pressuring us, or launching an aggression against us. ...
Ein Kommentar von Mathias Bröckers.
Kinzhal: eine überschallschnelle, luft-gefeuerte Marschrakete, die mit Mach 10 (7700 Meilen pro Stunde) fliegt und sowohl Bodenanlagen als auch Schiffe zerstören kann.
Avangard: ein wendiges überschallschnelles Nutzlastzuführungssystem für interkontinentale ballistische Raketen, das schneller als Mach 20 (15300 Meilen pro Stunde) fliegt. Es hat eine Reichweite von 740 Meilen und kann eine Kernladung von bis zu 300 Kilotonnen tragen.
Poseidon: ein autonomer nuklearbetriebener Torpedo mit unbegrenzter Reichweite, der sich in einer Tiefe von 3000 Fuß bewegen kann und dabei etwas über 100 Knoten beibehält.
Burevestnik: ein nuklearbetriebener Marschflugkörper, der mit rund 270 Meilen pro Stunde fliegt und 24 Stunden lang in der Luft bleiben kann, was ihm eine Reichweite von 6000 Meilen verleiht.
Peresvet: ein mobiler Laserkomplex, der Drohnen und Satelliten blenden sowie Raumfahrt- und Luftaufklärungssysteme zerstören kann.
Sarmat: eine neue schwere interkontinentale Rakete, die beliebige suborbitale Kurse fliegen kann (z.B. über dem Südpol) und beliebige Punkte überall auf dem Planeten trifft. Da sie keiner vorhersehbaren ballistischen Trajektorie folgt, ist es unmöglich, sie abzufangen.
Mueller Report Ends a Shameful Period for the Press
By Chris Hedges, March 25, 2019
The Mueller report’s categorical statement that Donald Trump and his campaign did not collude with Russia ends one of the most shameful periods in modern American journalism, one that rivals the mindless cheerleading for the Iraq War by most of the press. It further erodes and may prove fatal to the credibility of a press that has steadfastly rendered most of the country invisible and functions as little more than an array of gossiping courtiers to the elites.
“ ‘[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities,’ ” the report by special counsel Robert Mueller says, according to a direct quotation given in an official letter by U.S. Attorney General William Barr.
The mainstream press, owned by the corporations that have extinguished the democratic state and are fleecing the public, as well as destroying the ecosystem on which we depend for life, does not hold its employers to account. The empty chatter about Russia, including in The New York Times, exposes the bankruptcy of the U.S. media. MSNBC and CNN, which long ago abandoned journalism for entertainment, have breathlessly clogged the airwaves with ridiculous conspiracy theories and fantasies and used them to justify a faux crusade.
Consortiumnews.com, April 4, 2019 • 41 Comments
VIPS warn that Trump’s policies regarding Venezuela appear to be on a slippery slope that could take us toward war in Venezuela and military confrontation with Russia.
MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Avoiding War with Russia over Venezuela
Your Administration’s policies regarding Venezuela appear to be on a slippery slope that could take us toward war in Venezuela and military confrontation with Russia. As former intelligence officers and other national security practitioners with many decades of experience, we urge you not to let yourself be egged on into taking potentially catastrophic military action in response to civil unrest in Venezuela or Russian activities in the Western Hemisphere. With the recent arrival of two transport aircraft and enduring political support for the government of Venezuela, the Russians are far from crossing any “red line” emanating from the 1823 Monroe Doctrine.
Unfulfilled Objectives in Venezuela
Inside Venezuela, U.S. actions have failed to do more than plunge the country into deeper crisis, cause greater human suffering, and increase the prospects of violence on a national scale. President Maduro’s mishandling of the economy and authoritarian reactions to provocations are impossible to defend, but they result in part from the fact that he has been under siege since he was first elected in 2013 and has faced sanctions aimed ultimately at removing him from office. In our view, the advice you’ve received from your top advisors – Florida Senator Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor John Bolton, Special Representative Elliott Abrams, and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo – was and apparently continues to be wrong. ...
For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
Fulton Armstrong, former National Intelligence Officer for Latin America & former National Security Council Director for Inter-American Affairs (ret.)
William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer & former Division Director in the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (ret.)
Bogdan Dzakovic, Former Team Leader of Federal Air Marshals and Red Team, FAA Security, (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Philip Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
Mike Gravel,,former Adjutant, top secret control officer, Communications Intelligence Service; special agent of the Counter Intelligence Corps and former United States Senator
Larry Johnson, former CIA Intelligence Officer & former State Department Counter-Terrorism Official, (ret.)
John Kiriakou, former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former Senior Investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Clement J. Laniewski, LTC, U.S. Army (ret.)
Linda Lewis, WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret.)
Edward Loomis, NSA Cryptologic Computer Scientist (ret.)
David MacMichael, former Senior Estimates Officer, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA presidential briefer (ret.)
Elizabeth Murray, former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the Near East & CIA political analyst (ret.)
Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
Peter Van Buren,U.S. Department of State, Foreign Service Officer (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Sarah Wilton, Commander, U.S. Naval Reserve (ret.) and Defense Intelligence Agency (ret.)
Ann Wright, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat who resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War
Wer hat Hitler gezwungen, Stalin zu überfallen?
Nikolay Starikov, Übersetzer: Wolfgang Schacht, 2017 (im Cache)
On April 4, 2018 seven Plowshare activists entered a major U.S. [TRIDENT II] nuclear submarine base to nonviolently and symbolically disarm nuclear weapons.
Insttute for Public Accuracy, October 10, 2019
On April 4, 2018 — exactly 50 years after the assassination of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. — seven Plowshare activists entered a major U.S. [TRIDENT II] nuclear submarine base to nonviolently and symbolically disarm nuclear weapons.
Earlier this year, a statement was released supporting this Plowshares action which took place at Kings Bay, Georgia. See: “Rev. Tutu Among Luminaries Backing Activists Facing 25 Years for Nuclear Weapons Action.”
The trial of the “Kings Bay Plowshares 7” is set to begin on October 21 in Brunswick, Georgia.
Some of the Plowshare activists have been locked up for over one and a half years, though all but one are out of jail right now and available for interviews.
Insttute for Public Accuracy, October 15, 2019
Today, Daniel Ellsberg, who exposed the Pentagon Papers, said in a statement to accuracy.org: “I strongly endorse the action of civil resistance by the Kings Bay Plowshares 7 defendants who are now on trial for having ‘nonviolently and symbolically disarmed the Trident nuclear submarine base at Kings Bay, Georgia.’ The sign they displayed during their action on the base — ‘The Ultimate Logic of Trident is Omnicide’ — is exactly right. I believe they are definitely entitled to the legal defense, among others, of ‘Justification’ or ‘Necessity:’ that an action which would under other circumstances be illegal can be justified as legal by a reasonable belief that it is necessary to avert a much greater evil: in this case, omnicide, the collateral murder of nearly every human on earth in a war in which the nuclear missiles aboard Trident submarines were launched.
“I lay out the argument for that defense in this case in an affidavit that has been submitted to the court. It is based on an earlier affidavit, much longer and more detailed, with legal references, that I have entered in similar trials of anti-nuclear resistance. A key point is that without the impact on myself of actions of civil resistance during the Vietnam War like those of the defendants in this case — including those of Father Philip Berrigan, the late husband of the current defendant Elizabeth McAlister, and of Dorothy Day, grandmother of another defendant Martha Hennessy — I would never have considered revealing the top secret Pentagon Papers: which legal scholars have described as having had, ‘arguably at least,’ a causal effect in shortening the Vietnam War.
“I believe that omnicide, the end of civilization and most of humanity, will not be averted without a moral transformation and political mobilization that requires actions of civil disobedience — including that of the Kings Bay Plowshares 7– to inspire.”
October 15, 2019 By journalist
I am Daniel Ellsberg.
14.To my knowledge, in the domain of nuclear weapons policy, there has been throughout the nuclear era an equally great divergence between public desires and beliefs, public declarations of official policy, and the demands of law and prudence, on the one hand, and actual, secret governmental policy and practice on the other: with a potential for catastrophe incomparably greater.
15. In neither of these areas have the “normal,” legal processes of democracy functioned adequately or even been permitted to operate, in terms of openness and public awareness to protect American citizens and other humans from vast, in some cases unprecedented and unlimited risks of harm.
16. Will any of these risks to our democracy and our legal system as well as to human lives be terminated or averted without such actions, to awaken the consciences of democratic citizens, as are on trial in this case?
21.Testifying under oath as an expert witness, the former Attorney General stated: “Without the marches” which, in Alabama at that time, were treated as civil disobedience “the Voting Rights Act of 1965 would never have passed.”
22. In my understanding as both a student of and participant in such campaigns, in none of these cases is the public movement, and specifically the tactic of civil disobedience, properly to be seen as an “alternative” to, or a substitute for, the more traditional and unarguably legal processes of our political system: but as a sometimes necessary complement to such processes, stimulating and reinforcing them in a way that is not infrequently essential to achieving urgent, legitimate public ends.
23. In my own experience, participants in civil disobedience virtually never conceive of these particular actions as the sole effective means, by themselves, of averting specific harms, or as sufficient in themselves to do so. The issue, from the perspective of these actors, is not whether other approaches, unchallengeably legal, exist to further their aims, but whether these unquestionably necessary approaches, by themselves and excluding dramatic campaigns of civil disobedience, are adequately effective, whether they can “work” or work in time to avoid great harm without the historically proven catalyst of committed, conscientious, risk taking exemplary action.
24. These considerations bear on two other elements of the necessity defense, the “lack of legal alternatives” and the “imminence” of the harms to be averted. Again, I speak from my own experience, but not only mine, in saying that it is the perceived insufficiency of other means, by themselves not their unavailability or irrelevance that impels one to add, in some circumstances, tactics that risk arrest to a program of social action. And the urgency of such means reflects the prolonged time required to mobilize political efforts perhaps measured in months or years to avert deaths and injuries that will not be averted at all without campaigns that include these dramatic elements.
OPCW Investigator Testified at UN That No Chemical Attack Took Place in Douma, Syria
by Ben Norton (The Greyzone), Consortium News, January 24, 2020
Engineering expert Ian Henderson also said findings were suppressed, Ben Norton reports.
Dennis Kucinich: The Democratic Party Has No Soul
Scheer Intelligence, Jan 31, 2020
Dennis Kucinich: ... 'The U.S. government admits it’s spent at least $80,000 per average family of four since 2001 on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. That’s, like, over $6.4 trillion. And then the actual figure is much higher; it’s closer, I think, closer to $150,000 per family, for just our regime-change wars in those two countries. And you know Chris Hedges; well, I’ve read some of his stuff. He’s pointed out that our society is going to crumble, lives will be lost, disease and despair will rise to keep the Empire afloat and the world in fear if we keep these wars going on. So we’ve got — what we’re experiencing now is the cost of a plutocratic approach blessed by both political parties, which accelerates wealth to the top, and an economic pyramid, top of the economic pyramid. And it’ll be catastrophic for our economy and our democracy unless we reverse it.'
A National Pragmatic Safety Limit for Nuclear Weapon Quantities
Joshua M. Pearce 1,2,3, and David C. Denkenberger 4,5, Received: 15 February 2018; Accepted: 6 June 2018; Published: 14 June 2018
1 Department of Electronics and Nanoengineering, School of Electrical Engineering, Aalto University, FI-00076 Espoo, Finland
2 Department of Materials Science & Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931-1295, USA
3 Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931-1295, USA
4 Tennessee State University, 3500 John A Merritt Boulevard Nashville, Nashville, TN 37209, USA; (firstname.lastname@example.org)
5 Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED), 23532 Calabasas Road, Suite A, Calabasas, CA 91302, USA (Southern California, near Los Angeles)
Correspondence: email@example.com; Tel.: 906-487-1466
US Stockpile: 4500 Warheads
New START: 1500 US Warheads
Nuclear Winter Limit: 100 Warheads
Winter-safe Deterrence: 50 Warheads
Figure 1. The total number of nuclear warheads in the U.S. stockpile (deployed and stored) as a function of time shown in blue and compared against pragmatic nuclear weapons limits along with function of time shown in blue and compared against pragmatic nuclear weapons limits along with their date of origin.
Abstract: This study determines the nuclear pragmatic limit where the direct physical negative consequences of nuclear weapons use are counter to national interests, by assuming all unknowns are conservatively optimistic. The only effect considered is nuclear winter (“nuclear autumn” in the low weapons limits) and the resultant effects on the aggressor nation.
The results found that 100 nuclear warheads is adequate for nuclear deterrence in the worst case scenario, while using more than 100 nuclear weapons by any aggressor nation (including the best positioned strategically to handle the unintended consequences) even with optimistic assumptions (including no retaliation) would cause unacceptable damage to their own society.
American Empire, CN Live!, Europe, Intelligence, Russia, Ukraine
February 25, 2022
The program looks at Russia’s military operation in Ukraine, its causes, its aims, and its likely aftermaths with Alexander Mercouris, Mark Sleboda, Scott Ritter and Tony Kevin.
Tony Kevin on 13000 deaths in Donetsk, Luhansk (source: UN), intensified attacks days before Russia's invasion, Putin's aims:
Tony Kevin: voices of Scholz & Macron: "no European security without Russian security", European interests differ from US interests, might be the light at the end of the tunnel, influential groups within France and Germany
Scott Ritter: NATO is not strong enough for a war.
WATCH: CN Live! — ‘Ukraine Update’
March 4, 2022
‘Ukraine Update’ — 8 am Friday ESTCN Live! is joined again by Mark Sleboba in Moscow and Scott Ritter in the U.S. to discuss the current situation on the ground in Ukraine, and the economic and information war that is raging along with the guns
American Empire, Biden Administration, Commentary, Military, Russia, Ukraine, United Nations
March 6, 2022
Prof. John Mearsheimer and ex-C.I.A. Russia specialist Ray McGovern discuss the Ukraine conflict and U.S. policy towards Moscow, presented by the Committee for the Republic in Washington.
March 14, 2022
Tony Kevin, former Australian diplomat, and Emeritus Prof. Ramesh Thakur, Australian National University, in a deep discussion on the causes and future of the Ukraine war and its impact on the world. Presented by Pax Christi Australia.
time 0 - 17:15: Tony Kevin:
On a Knife’s Edge in Ukraine
by Joe Lauria
Consortium News, March 11, 2022 (deutsche Übersetzung)
The settlement of the Ukraine war or its escalation to a NATO-Russia conflict with all that entails comes down to how far Ukraine will go to get the Western alliance involved in its war, writes Joe Lauria.
Putin’s Nuclear Threat
by Scott Ritter
Consortium News, February 27, 2022 (deutsche Übersetzung)
The disconnect between the Western and Russian narratives in the current conflict could prove fatal to the world, writes Scott Ritter.
Tangled Tale of NATO Expansion at the Heart of Ukraine Crisis
by Joe Laurea
Consortium News, January 28, 2022 (deutsche Übersetzung)
Special for Consortium News
The U.S. response to winning the Cold War set the stage for the current crisis with Russia, reports Joe Lauria.
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia
Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options
by James Dobbins, Raphael S. Cohen, Nathan Chandler, Bryan Frederick, Edward Geist, Paul DeLuca, Forrest E. Morgan, Howard J. Shatz, Brent Williams
The most-promising options to “extend Russia” are those that directly address its vulnerabilities, anxieties, and strengths, exploiting areas of weakness while undermining Russia’s current advantages.
In that regard,
Most of the options discussed, including those listed here, are in some sense escalatory, and most would likely prompt some Russian counterescalation. Thus, besides the specific risks associated with each option, there is additional risk attached to a generally intensified competition with a nuclear-armed adversary to consider.
This means that every option must be deliberately planned and carefully calibrated to achieve the desired effect.
Finally, although Russia will bear the cost of this increased competition less easily than the United States will, both sides will have to divert national resources from other purposes.
Extending Russia for its own sake is not a sufficient basis in most cases to consider the options discussed here. Rather, the options must be considered in the broader context of national policy based on
Most-Promising Cost-Imposing Options
Likelihood of Success in Extending Russia
Costs and Risks
Expand U.S. energy production
Impose deeper trade and financial sanctions
Increase U.S. and allied naval force posture and presence
Invest more in autonomous or remotely piloted aircraft
Invest more in long-range strike aircraft and missiles
Invest more in longer-range HARMs
Invest more in new electronic warfare technologies
NOTE: For all the tables in this brief, high and low rankings for costs and risks are inverted in desirability from the rest of the table; i.e., low costs are good in the same way that a high likelihood of success is. Thus, a low cost is shaded in light orange while a low likelihood of success is shaded in dark orange. All assessments listed in the tables in this brief are based on analysis by the report’s authors.
HARMs = High-speed Antiradiation Missiles (eigentlich anti-RADAR Missiles)
Peter Decker, 26. März 2022
über den Autor
1. Mitten in unserem schönen Europa
Peter Decker, 27. März 2022
1. Der Antrag auf Anerkennung russischer Sicherheitsinteressen: abgelehnt!
Deutsche Metallimporte aus Russland
Deutsche Rohstoffagentur (DERA), Chart des Monats, Februar 2022
Im Jahr 2019
Im Jahr 2020
Bei den prozentualen Anteilen der deutschen Importe aus der Russischen Föderation sieht das Bild anders aus.
Damit ist das Land bei diesen beiden Gruppen der mit Abstand wichtigste Lieferant für Deutschland.
Aber auch bei anderen Metallen ist das Land eine wichtige Lieferquelle für Deutschland:
Hier deckt die deutsche Industrie ihren Importbedarf zu rund 20 % aus Russland.
Im globalen Maßstab ist die Russische Föderation bei vielen Metallrohstoffen sogar eines der bedeutendsten Förderländer.
by Joe Lauria, Consortium News, April 4, 2022
April 13, 2022
Many of the bodies had white cloth strips tied to their upper arm, a visual designation which indicated either loyalty to Russia or that the persons did not pose a threat to Russians. The bodies that lacked this white cloth often had their hands tied behind their backs with white cloth that appeared similar to that which marked the arms of the other bodies.
Near to many of the bodies were the green cardboard box adorned with a white star which contained Russian military dry rations that had been distributed to the civilian population of Bucha by Russian troops as part of their humanitarian operations.
In short, the evidence suggested that the bodies were of civilians friendly to, or sympathetic with, Russia. It would take a leap of faith to conclude that Russian troops gunned these unfortunate souls down in cold blood, as alleged by the Ukrainian government.
On April 2, an article appeared in an official Ukrainian government website, LB.ua, entitled “Special forces regiment ‘SAFARI’ began to clear Bucha of saboteurs and accomplices of Russia.” According to the article, “Special forces began clearing the liberated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine the city of Bucha of the Kiev region from saboteurs and accomplices of Russian troops.” According to the article, the Safari Regiment was comprised of personnel from various special police units, including the Rapid Operational Response Unit and the Tactical Operational Response Police.
There was other information—a video where a Ukrainian official warns the citizens of Bucha that on April 1 a “cleansing operation” was going to be conducted in Bucha, and that the citizens should remain indoors and not to panic. Another video, also from April 1, purported to show members of the Safari Regiment shooting civilians who were not wearing the blue distinguishing armbands signifying loyalty to the Ukrainian cause. ...
A Manufactured Crisis in Ukraine is Victimizing the World’s Peoples
U.S. Peace Council Statement (in cache)
May 10, 2022
... The U.S. military now consumes over half of the federal discretionary budget, which is 12 times the size of Russia’s defense spending. The Ukraine war has been used to justify Congress’s most recent obscene additional $29 billion in war appropriations over what the Pentagon itself had requested, $800 millions of which will go directly to Ukraine in the form of hi-tech military weapons. ... Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine could have been avoided if the U.S. had not relentlessly provoked it. The U.S. provided weapons and military training to the fascist-infiltrated Ukrainian army that has targeted ethnic Russians in Ukraine since the U.S.-orchestrated coup in 2014. Some 14,000 people had died in the conflict before Russia directly intervened.
Russia repeatedly called for respecting the ceasefire outlined in the Minsk Accords. The 2015 Minsk II Agreement called for autonomy for the separatist Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, where the majority are Russian-speaking, along with release of prisoners of war and withdrawal of heavy weapons.
Instead, the Ukrainian army increased its attacks on its own citizens, although the peace agreement had been signed by representatives of Ukraine along Russia, the separatist provinces, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) for western Europe. Then in late February, a planned full-scale assault by the Ukraine army on the separatist region immediately precipitated the Russian invasion (need citation to support this).
The conflict could not have continued without weapons and intelligence openly provided by the U.S. In a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reported that the U.S. and NATO had supplied 60,000 anti-tank and 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons to the Ukrainian army. In recent weeks, the Biden administration ordered another $1.6 billion of “lethal aid” to Ukraine further escalating the conflict. ...
For all the reasons stated above, the U.S. government has pursued trapping Russia in the Ukraine conflict and has every incentive to prolong the conflict. Ukraine’s hands are tied, as it cannot negotiate a settlement without permission from the U.S., which is unlikely to be forthcoming.
... Climate chaos, the ongoing pandemic, and inflation are all exacerbated by the conflict. Instead of international solidarity and cooperation to combat these threats, the opposite is occurring with global fragmentation. The U.S. is threatening to sanction countries such as China and India, home to 35% of the world population if they do not cut economic ties with Russia. Pakistan recently experienced a U.S.-backed coup, in part for continuing to have a friendly relationship with Russia.
... On the basis of this assessment of the present situation in Ukraine, the U.S. Peace Council reiterates its statement of March 24 calling for rapidly de-escalating the violence and negotiating a peaceful resolution. Analysts across the political spectrum agree that never has the world been so close to nuclear holocaust.
Dr. Hans-Georg Maaßen und Gerhard Schindler
tv.Berlin, Premiered on 18 May 2022
1. H.-G. Maaßen zum Ukraine-Krieg
Ich glaube, Putin weiß, dass er, das Putinsche System, mit dem Rücken an der Wand steht. ... Er darf den Krieg, Russland darf [aus eigener Sicht] den Krieg nicht verlieren. ....
Wir müssen auf einen Waffenstillstand zusteuern .... Wir müssen jetzt zu einem Waffenstillstand kommen. ... Dazu ist nötig, dass wir als Westen Putin wieder entdämonisieren. Was hier Politik und Medien machen, macht mir große Sorgen. ... unser Interesse ist, dass es da zu einem Waffenstillstand und zu einem Frieden kommt. Ich glaube, weil sich Putin mit dem Rücken an der Wand sieht, wird er bis zuletzt kämpfen.
Da müssen wir uns sehr, sehr große Sorgen machen. ...
Aus meiner Sicht bedeutet es, wenn wir Waffen - nicht Helme, nicht Verbandspäckchen- liefern, laufen wir Gefahr, Partei eines Krieges zu werden. Das hat Bundeskanzler Scholz in seiner Rede am vergangenen Sonntag auch so verstanden: Wir sind jetzt Kriegspartei gegen Russland.
Darüber hat keine öffentliche Diskussion in Deutschland stattgefunden. Ich finde es erschreckend, wie viele Menschen hier wieder Hurra rufen -weniger auf der Straße als in den Redaktionen. ...
Ich bin der Meinung, wir sollten keine Waffen liefern an die Ukraine, weil wir damit verfestigen, dass wir Kriegspartei sind. Damit könnten wir Ziel von russischen Angriffen werden. Das bedeutet, Deutschland wird in einen Krieg hineingezogen, ohne dass wir eigene Kriegsziele haben. ...
Die Ukraine ist nicht das Bollwerk für Freiheit und Menschenrechte - das ist sie überhaupt nicht, auch wenn das in den Zeitungen und öffentlichen Medien so verbreitet wird. Wofür setzen wir uns in der Ukraine ein, und warum setzen wir uns der Gefahr einer nuklearen Auseinandersetzung aus? ...
Wir sind sozusagen der größte amerikanische Flugzeugträger mit 80 Millionen "Eingeborenen", die mit auf dem Flugzeugträger leben. Warum sollten wir so etwas machen, ... ohne dass wir genügend Gas, Weizen, Düngemittel haben? Wir setzen uns einer massiven Gefahr aus in einem Land, das in keiner Weise auf den Krieg vorbereitet ist, das auch mental gar nicht darauf vorbereitet ist - wann hatten wir denn die letzten Kriegserlebnisse?
Das bedeutet, dass wir hier wie Schlafwandler in einen Konflikt hineingehen, wir wissen nicht warum, wir wissen nicht, wie wir ihn bewältigen können, und wir wissen schon gar nicht, wie er ausgehen wird.
2. H.-G. Maaßen zum Trennungsgebot zwischen Polizei und Geheimdienst
Wenn das Trennungsgebot aufgehoben würde, in welche Richtung gehen dann die Aufgaben? 1933 sind die Aufgeben des Nachrichtendienstes zur Polizei gegangen - Geheime Staatspolizei. Das war eine Polizei mit nachrichtendienstlichen Befugnissen. FBI: Polizei mit nachrichtendienstlichen Befugnissen. D.h. die Polizei übernimmt die nachrichtendienstlichen Befugnisse und kann direkt danach verhaften. Das wollten wir in Deutschland nie wieder haben - genau wie die STASI ...Ich bin nach wie vor der Ansicht, dass das bestehende System gut funktionieren könnte, weil es viele Vorbilder gibt, die auch gut funktionieren: Großbritannien (MI5, Scotland Yard), Frankreich, Italien. Was hier in Deutschland weniger funktioniert, ist die Zusammenarbeit mit den Ländern - ich kann das weniger überschauen im Polizeibereich. Wir haben 18 Inlandsdienste, wir haben 16 Bundesländer, jedes Bundesland hat einen eigenen Inlandsdienst. Dann gibt es den militärischen Inlandsdienst noch, den MAD. Dann gibt es noch das Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz. Selbst ein Land wie - Bremen, hat einen Inlandsdienst. Der Verfassungsschutz ist nötig, aber er ist nicht so nötig, dass wir so viele brauchen. ... Das Problem, das wir leider haben, ist eine Politisierung des deutschen Inlandsdienstes (des Verfassungsschutzes). Das ist ein grundlegendes Problem, das wird auch von unseren ausländischen Partnern so gesehen. Das führt auch zu einer Belastung der Zusammenarbeit.
The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn’t Ready
By The Editorial Board
The New York Times, May 19, 2022
The editorial board is a group of Opinion journalists whose views are informed by expertise, research, debate and certain longstanding values. It is separate from the newsroom.
... the United States must lead its NATO allies in demonstrating to Vladimir Putin that the Atlantic alliance is willing and able to resist his revanchist ambitions.
That goal cannot shift, but in the end, it is still not in America’s best interest to plunge into an all-out war with Russia, even if a negotiated peace may require Ukraine to make some hard decisions. And the U.S. aims and strategy in this war have become harder to discern, as the parameters of the mission appear to have changed.
Without clarity on these questions, the White House
... If the conflict does lead to real negotiations, it will be Ukrainian leaders who will have to make the painful territorial decisions that any compromise will demand. ...
... But as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster. It is imperative that the Ukrainian government’s decisions be based on a realistic assessment of its means and how much more destruction Ukraine can sustain.
... America’s support for Ukraine is a test of its place in the world in the 21st century, and Mr. Biden has an opportunity and an obligation to help define what that will be.
Thirteen Days: A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis
by Robert F. Kennedy, W.W. Norton, 1999
Afterword by Richard E. Neustadt and Graham T. Allison
Seite 117 (Afterword)
For Secretary of Defense McNamara ["Fog of War"), the missiles raised a specter of nuclear war. He first framed the issue as a straightforward strategic problem.
Robert S. McNamara: "The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam"
"... Had Khrushchev on 28th October 1963 not announced to withdraw the missiles, almost certainly on the following day, Monday 29th October, the majority of President Kennedy's military and civilian advisors would have recommended him that he launch the attack on Cuba, for which contingency plans had been developed. CIA falsely thought there were no nuclear weapons on Cuba, so the attack did not include US nuclear weapons."
Michael von der Schulenburg
Der Westen macht sich in seinem Ukraine-Kurs viel zu abhängig von den USA. Insbesondere die Führung der EU zeigt sich als erschreckend inkompetent.
Michael von der Schulenburg, Berliner Zeitung, 28.5.2022 -
Europa ist nur zu einem Minimalkonsensus über Sanktionen fähig
... Wenn Europa weiterhin große Mengen an Waffen, und vor allem an schweren Waffen, liefert, ohne gleichzeitig Friedensinitiativen zu unterstützen, macht es sich mitschuldig an den sinnlosen Zerstörungen und dem schweren Blutzoll, das dieser Krieg von den Ukrainern fordert.
... Überlegungen, wie ein Frieden zu erreichen ist und wie dieser aussehen sollte, fehlen in offiziellen europäischen Stellungnahmen.
... Dabei haben die USA in der Ukraine weder größere wirtschaftliche Interessen noch werden sie durch dortige politische Entwicklungen unmittelbar bedroht. Die übermächtige Präsenz der USA in diesem Konflikt und deren enormer und hochriskanter militärischer Einsatz lassen sich nur aus den geopolitischen Zielen der USA erklären. Ein Nato-Land Ukraine würde den amerikanischen Einfluss in Eurasia, wie Brzezinski es einmal nannte, entscheidend vergrößern und so das geopolitische Gleichgewicht stark zugunsten der USA verändern.
... Während die amerikanische Wirtschaft wenig unter den Auswirkungen von Sanktionen leidet, ist Europa davon ungleich mehr betroffen.
Hinzu kommt noch der Versuch, sich gleichzeitig mit dem Krieg in der Ukraine wirtschaftlich vollständig von Russland abzukoppeln.
Trügerische Option Siegfrieden
... Die größte Gefahr droht Europa jedoch durch eine Strategie, die auf einen Siegfrieden setzt.
Dabei scheint ein Siegfrieden recht unwahrscheinlich zu sein.
Wahrscheinlicher ist es, dass Russland sich in der östlichen und südlichen Ukraine eingraben wird und Ukraine damit eine Teilung des Landes droht.
Wäre es da nicht in Europas Interesse, einen Verhandlungsfrieden zu unterstützen, ja, zu fordern?
Die Rahmenbedingen für eine friedliche Lösung hatten mutige russische und ukrainische Unterhändler bereits in den ersten zwei Monaten des Krieges ausgearbeitet.
Sicherlich ist das noch kein vollständiger Friedensvertrag, viele schwierige Details bleiben noch ungelöst.
Versagt Europa gerade jetzt in der größten Gefahr für den Frieden seit dem Ende des Kalten Krieges?
Es ist deshalb Zeit, dass Europa endlich seine eigene Stimme findet.
Europa braucht eine neue Vision, keinen neuen Kalten Krieg
Europa muss im Einklang mit seinen eigenen Sicherheits- und Wirtschaftsinteressen handeln
Michael von der Schulenburg, 30 Jan. 2022
published in Wall Street International Magazine, Initiative Entspannungspolitik
engl. version in Other News
... Ein weiterer Unterschied [zu den USA] ist, dass Europa, im Gegensatz zu den USA, eines der weltweit anspruchsvollsten und teuersten Sozialsysteme hat. Es gibt keine Garantie dafür, dass Europa diese hohen sozialen Standards in einer globalisierten Wirtschaft aufrechterhalten kann.
führen zu weiterem Druck auf sein einzigartiges Wohlfahrtssystem.
Dieses hängt aber in einem größeren Masse als in den USA von seiner Exportindustrie ab. Wenn nun noch
hinzukommen, würde das zu internen Konflikten führen, die Regierungen und sogar den europäischen Gedanken hinwegfegen könnten. Europa würde so weiter geschwächt.
Aber vielleicht die größte Gefahr für Europa ist die erschreckend rasanten Entwicklungen von immer ausgefeilteren und tödlicheren Waffensystemen wie
... Ein Atomkrieg um die Krim oder um Taiwan würde auch Europa auslöschen, ganz gleich, ob es ähnliche Waffensysteme hat oder nicht.
Europa muss daher einen vernünftigeren, nicht militärischen Weg einschlagen, um internationale politische Spannungen abzubauen.
Auf dem Hintergrund seiner eigenen Sicherheitsrisiken kann Europa sich einen weiteren Kalten Krieg nicht leisten.
Traurigerweise mag die größte Behinderung für einen solchen neuen Zugang zu einer Weltgemeinschaft heute nicht so sehr in Moskau, Peking oder gar in Washington, sondern in Brüssel liegen, wo die europäische Führung in großen Teilen immer noch in Denkmustern des Kalten Krieges gefangen bleibt.
Open letter from former UN Assistant Secretary-General on the war in Ukraine
Michael von der Schulenburg, 31. May 2022
published in Other News (no link provided)
Europe has twice missed a chance for a peace,
... Scholz and Macron
Can Europe afford a destroyed and divided Ukraine and potentially even a destabilized nuclear Russia in its immediate neighborhood?
Could Europe prosper while being cut-off for years to come from vital natural resources from Russia and Central Asia as well as from its easy land access to markets in Asia?
... in the US are signs that support for the war in Ukraine may be waning.
Wer ist bereit, den Weg zum Frieden zu weisen?
Istanbul Ende März: „Nur einen Monat nach Kriegsbeginn, gelang es ukrainischen und russischen Verhandlungsteams, einen 15-Punkte-Entwurf für ein mögliches Friedensabkommen vorzulegen“, schreibt von der Schuldenburg.
Istanbul Ende März: „Nur einen Monat nach Kriegsbeginn, gelang es ukrainischen und russischen Verhandlungsteams, einen 15-Punkte-Entwurf für ein mögliches Friedensabkommen vorzulegen“, schreibt von der Schuldenburg.
Für den früheren Diplomaten Michael von der Schuldenburg ist der Weg zum Frieden klar: die Neutralität der Ukraine. Er fragt: Gibt es noch Führungsfiguren, die Spirale des Kriegs beenden können?
Michael von der Schulenburg, Frankfurter Rundschau, 20.10.2022, 17:02 Uhr
In der heutigen Welt, die vollgepackt ist mit Massenvernichtungswaffen, Hyperschall-Trägersystemen, Cyber-Kriegsführung, Weltraum-Kriegsführung und Fähigkeiten der künstlichen Intelligenz sowie anderen schrecklichen Dingen, riskiert jede Strategie, die darauf abzielt, einen Krieg militärisch zu gewinnen, in einer Katastrophe zu enden.
Dies gilt ganz besonders für den Krieg in der Ukraine, wo sich zwei Atommächte, Russland und die Vereinigten Staaten, gegenüberstehen und wo eine dritte Atommacht, China, dem angespannt zuschaut. Deshalb sollte der Westen einen Frieden und nicht einen militärischen Sieg anstreben. Das kann nicht durch Waffen, sondern nur durch Diplomatie erreicht werden.
Das Schlüsselwort, das den Westen daran hindert, sich mit Russland an einen Tisch zu setzen, ist „Neutralität“. Russland möchte, dass die Ukraine neutral bleibt, während die USA eine feste Einbindung der Ukraine in das westliche Militärbündnis wünschen. Diese gegensätzlichen Positionen beruhen nicht auf einer besonderen Liebe der einen oder anderen Seite zur Ukraine, sondern es ist die strategische Lage der Ukraine zwischen Asien und Europa, die die Ukraine für beide Seiten geopolitisch so attraktiv macht.
Als Mitglied der Nato würde die Ukraine zu einem strategischen Aktivposten für den Anspruch der USA auf eine globale und unangefochtene Führungsrolle werden. Sie würde Russland als Großmacht aus dem Spiel nehmen und es zu einer Regionalmacht degradieren. Sie würde es den USA ermöglichen, den Handel zwischen Europa und Asien zu kontrollieren und ihre Macht bis tief nach Asien hineinzuprojizieren – der Hauptgrund, warum sich alle asiatischen Länder, mit Ausnahme von Japan und Taiwan, nicht der Nato/US-Politik der Verurteilung und Isolierung Russlands angeschlossen haben. Andererseits würde eine neutrale Ukraine (und damit auch ein neutrales Georgien) Russland davon befreien, von der Nato eingekreist zu werden. Es würde seinen Status als dominierende Macht in seiner unmittelbaren geografischen Nachbarschaft behalten und ein – wenn auch kleiner – internationaler Akteur bleiben.
Dass gerade die Neutralität der Stolperstein ist, ist beunruhigend, denn es wäre die Neutralität der Ukraine gewesen, die die zunehmenden Spannungen zwischen Russland und den USA wegen der Nato-Erweiterung hätte lösen können, und es wäre die Neutralität der Ukraine gewesen, die den Krieg im März dieses Jahres hätte beenden können, als sich ukrainische und russische Unterhändler auf einen möglichen Friedensplan geeinigt hatten. In beiden Fällen war es die Nato, allen voran die USA und das Vereinigte Königreich, die jeden Schritt in Richtung eines neutralen Status der Ukraine torpedierten. Während Russland die Schuld für den Beginn eines illegalen Angriffs auf die Ukraine trägt, ist es die Nato, die für die Verlängerung des Krieges verantwortlich ist.
Das auffälligste Beispiel zeigte sich, als die Nato im März die ukrainisch-russischen Friedensverhandlungen torpedierte. Damals, nur einen Monat nach Kriegsbeginn, gelang es ukrainischen und russischen Verhandlungsteams, einen 15-Punkte-Entwurf für ein mögliches Friedensabkommen vorzulegen, demzufolge die Ukraine keine Nato-Mitgliedschaft anstreben und keiner ausländischen Macht gestatten würde, Militärstützpunkte auf ihrem Hoheitsgebiet zu errichten. Im Gegenzug würden alle russischen Besatzungstruppen abziehen und die Ukraine würde ihre territoriale Integrität weitgehend bewahren. Der Entwurf sah auch Zwischenlösungen für den Donbass und die Krim vor. Man hoffte, dieses Abkommen auf einer Friedenskonferenz am 29. März in Istanbul auf Außenministerebene abschließen zu können. Sowohl ukrainische als auch russische Politiker hatten bereits Hoffnungen auf ein Ende des Krieges geäußert.
Doch dazu kam es nicht. Angesichts der Möglichkeit einer neutralen Ukraine berief die Nato für den 23. März einen Sondergipfel in Brüssel ein, an dem auch Präsident Biden teilnahm. Der einzige Zweck dieses Treffens bestand darin, die ukrainisch-russischen Friedensverhandlungen zu beenden. Anstelle eines Kompromisses zwischen ukrainischer Neutralität und ukrainischer territorialer Integrität forderte die Nato nun den bedingungslosen Rückzug der russischen Streitkräfte aus den ukrainischen Gebieten, bevor es zu Friedensgesprächen kommen konnte. Die Botschaft der Nato an Russland war eindeutig: Es würde keinen Verhandlungsfrieden geben, der zur Neutralität der Ukraine führen würde.
Der Weg zum Frieden ist klar: Die Bestätigung der ukrainischen Neutralität, die Anerkennung russischer Sicherheitsinteressen und die damit verbundenen Sicherheitsvereinbarungen für die Ukraine, die sich nicht mehr auf die Nato stützen, wären erste Schritte. Aber haben wir heute Politiker vom Kaliber eines Kennedy oder Chruschtschow, eines Reagan oder Gorbatschow, oder gar einer Angela Merkel, die den Mut und Entschlossenheit hätten, die Spirale eines immer mehr außer Kontrolle geratenen Krieges zu durchbrechen und stattdessen einen Frieden anzustreben?
Michael Derrer, 23.05.2022
Vier Kernpunkte unter der Aufsicht einer Internationalen Vermittlungsgruppe vor
Der italienische Plan schlägt eine nahezu vollständige Autonomie der umstrittenen Gebiete und deren autonome Wahrung der Sicherheit vor. ... Zu den zu lösenden Fragen gehören sprachliche und kulturelle Rechte sowie der freie Personen-, Waren-, Kapital- und Dienstleistungsverkehr.
Es wird ein neues multilaterales Abkommen über Frieden und Sicherheit in Europa im Rahmen der OSZE und der Nachbarschaftspolitik der Europäischen Union vorgeschlagen, in dem eine Neuordnung der internationalen Gleichgewichte erfolgen soll, angefangen bei den Beziehungen zwischen der Europäischen Union und Moskau.
werden angestrebt. Gegenstand der Vermittlung ist auch der Abzug der russischen Truppen aus den besetzten Gebieten, mit dem Ziel, den Zustand vor dem 24. Februar 2022 wiederherzustellen.
Roms Ziel, so erklärte Di Maio gegenüber Guterres, sei es, «eine faire, gerechte und zwischen den Parteien vereinbarte Lösung zu finden, die auf der Unabhängigkeit und territorialen Integrität der Ukraine beruht».
A Memoir of the Cuban Missile Crisis
by Robert F. Kennedy, W.W. Norton, 1999
Afterword by Richard E. Neustadt and Graham T. Allison
For Secretary of Defense McNamara ["Fog of War"), the missiles raised a specter of nuclear war. He first framed the issue as a straightforward strategic problem.
Zeitgeschehen im Fokus
Ausgabe-Nr. 4/5, 15. März 2022
31.10.2018: Themenvorschlag an Sahra Wagenknecht für aufstehen
21. 5.2022: Schwere Waffen in die Ukraine - an Abgeordnete von MV
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