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Doc. Code: 7862
Bibliography: New York Times, 19 January 1998, by Barbara Crossette, [Online] http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/early/0119iraq-rdp.html
Headline: Iraqis Told To Prepare for 'Holy War' On UN Sanctions
Orig. Source:
Date: 19 January 1998
ABSTRACT:
Iraqi Vice-President Taha Yassin Ramadan called for a "great jihad" (holy war) against the United Nations sanctions that have crippled the country's economy. Repeating remarks made by Saddam Hussein on 17 January 1998, Ramadan reported that "one million men and women would be given weapons and begin training next month." In calling for a jihad, Ramadan said, "there is no alternative to this after seven years of patience and cooperation with the United Nations and its committees."
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Doc. Code: 7886
Bibliography: BMD, 23 January 1998
Headline: UNSCOM Head Butler Calls Iraqi Talks "Disturbing"
Orig. Source: USIA United Nations Correspondent, 23 January 1998, by Judy Aita
Date: 23 January 1998
ABSTRACT:
UNSCOM Chairman Richard Butler told the UN Security Council that his meetings in Baghdad did not resolve the confrontation regarding UN weapons inspection in Iraq. Butler characterized these meetings as "disturbing and disappointing" compared to previous meetings with senior Iraqi officials, which he referred to as "correct and business-like."
US Ambassador to the United Nations Bill Richardson pointed out that the United States "feels very strongly that there should be full, unfettered access to all sites. In the next few days we will be consulting with our allies inside and outside the UN Security Council on the next steps." He said that "We want to resolve this issue diplomatically but we are not ruling any option out."
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Doc. Code: 7877
Bibliography: New York Times, 27 January 1998, by Christopher S. Wren [Online] http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/world/iraq-un-butler.html
Headline: UN Weapons Inspection Chief Tell Of Iraqi Tricks
Orig. Source:
Date: 27 January 1998
ABSTRACT:
Richard Butler, head of the UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) reported that Iraq has loaded biological weapons onto missile warheads. Butler said, "that the biological weapons were loaded onto missiles that could be put on mobile launchers and driven away to avoid being hit by bombs." Butler did not say where he received his information, but said Iraq had enough biological material such as anthrax or botulin toxin to "blow away Tel Aviv." Butler also said that he did not know how many missiles Iraq had.
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Doc. Code: 7880
Bibliography: Federal News Service, 28 January 1998,
Headline: Hearing Of The Senate Intelligence Committee: World Threat Assessment
Orig. Source:
Date: 28 January 1998
ABSTRACT:
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency George Tenet testified before the US Senate Intelligence Committee on 28 January 1998 about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In reference to Iraq, Tenet assessed that it continues to hide equipment and materials critical for its weapons of mass destruction program from the UN inspectors. "While its military forces continue to slowly deteriorate under UN sanctions and the arms embargo implemented after the Gulf War, Iraq remains an abiding threat to internal opposition and smaller regional neighbors."
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Doc. Code: 8103
Bibliography: The Times (London), 2 February 1998, by Michael Binyon and Philip Webster, [Online] http://www.Sunday.times.co.uk/
Headline: Britain To Draft UN Ultimatum To Iraqi 'Dictator'
Orig. Source:
Date: 2 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
British Prime Minister Tony Blair has decided that Britain will draft a new UN resolution in an attempt to break the diplomatic impasse with Iraq. He said that if the UN Security Council suggests military action, Britain "will not shrink from it."
Blair called Iraqi President Saddam Hussein an "evil dictator" who posed a fundamental challenge to peace. He said that it was vital to stop him hanging on to his remaining weapons of mass destruction or acquiring more, and that Britain "would not allow his games to go on much longer."
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Doc. Code: 7881
Bibliography: Jane's Defence Weekly, 4 February 1998, p. 11 by Barbara Starr
Headline: USA Is Facing 'Decision Time' On Iraq, Warns DIA
Orig. Source:
Date: 4 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
Lt. General Patrick Hughes, director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), testified to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein "has the capability to generate a crisis and there is not much we can do right now except to respond." Hughes believes that Hussein is secretly preserving a "core capability" for producing and delivering weapons of mass destruction.
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Doc. Code: 7981
Bibliography: FBIS-TAC-98-036, 5 February 1998
Headline: Experts See Iraqi Appointments Sign Of Missile Production
Orig. Source: Ha'aretz (Tel Aviv), 5 February 1998
Date: 5 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
According to Israeli assessments of Iraqi media reports, Iraq recently took several actions to resume missile development. Iraq appointed two senior army officers as deputy heads of the military industries authority: General 'Abd-al-Rizzaq Shihab and Air Force General Muzahm Tasab al-Hasan, both of whom commanded Iraqi missile forces in the 1990-91 Gulf War. These appointments may be a sign of Iraq's plan to re-establish its missile technology infrastructure.
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Doc. Code: 7885
Bibliography: FBIS-UMA-98-037, 6 February 1998
Headline: Russian Experts: Iraq Unable To Repel Possible US Strike
Orig. Source: Interfax (Moscow), 6 February 1998
Date: 6 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
According to Russian experts in Middle East affairs, the Iraqi Armed Forces will be unable to defend against a possible US military strike. Iraq has 80 fighter-bomber aircraft of various types, including Su-25, Mirage F-1, and MiG-23 jets, 40 tactical missile launchers, and over 2,000 tanks. Experts say, however, that Iraq can use only 30 percent to 40 percent of the potential of its air force and less than 50 percent of its air defenses.
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Doc. Code: 7979
Bibliography: Ha'aretz (Tel Aviv), 9 February 1998, by Ze'ev Schiff and Amnon Barzilai, [Online] http://www3.haaretz.co.il
Headline: Cohen To Mordechai: Israel Can Strike Back
Orig. Source:
Date: 9 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
On 8 February 1998, Israeli Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai told US Secretary of Defense William Cohen that Israel reserved the right to full freedom of action in protecting itself from any attack by Iraq that might result from its confrontation with the United States and the United Nations. En route to Saudi Arabia, Cohen backed off from earlier statements that Israel must not retaliate in the event of an Iraqi attack, stating that "Israel obviously has the right of self-defense and will exercise that right as it sees fit."
Israeli intelligence experts consider an Iraqi attack unlikely for four main reasons.
- Iraq's military capabilities are much less than what they were in 1991 when Scud missiles were launched at Israel.
- in 1991 Saddam Hussein had an incentive to attack Israel as a means of breaking up the coalition of Arab countries allied against him, a coalition which no longer exists.
- Iraq claims that it has no weapons of mass destruction (WMD) or missiles with which to attack Israel.
- if he were to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel, his claim that Iraq has no ballistic missiles would be discredited and sanctions would be extended. Israeli intelligence officials do concede that if Hussein were faced with annihilation, he would have nothing to lose by launching missiles at Israel.[1]
Supporting Sources:
[1] Arieh O' Sullivan, "Saddam, Again, Pushes The Envelope," Jerusalem Post, [Online] http://www.jpost.co.il, 9 February 1998.
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Doc. Code: 7895
Bibliography: Washington Times, 11 February 1998, by Bill Gertz [Online] http://www.washtimes.com/
Headline: Hidden Iraqi Scuds Threaten Israel, Gulf Countries
Orig. Source:
Date: 11 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
According to a US Defense Intelligence Agency report, Iraq is hiding several dozen mobile Scud missiles that could be fired at Israel, Saudi Arabia or Kuwait in any conflict with Baghdad over its refusal to allow weapons inspections. The Pentagon believes that Iraq is hiding short-range Scud variants at or near presidential or Republican Guard facilities, most likely near Baghdad (such as the Abu Ghurayb area), Tikrit, Bayji or secure facilities in the western part of the country. In addition to hiding missiles, Iraq is suspected of hiding missile launchers, propellants, and support equipment near southern or western launch areas. The Pentagon's Military Intelligence Digest reported on 2 February 1998 that the hidden missiles included "several dozen" Al-Hussein missiles with ranges up to 372 miles and "a few" Al-Abbas missiles with ranges up to 558 miles.
Chief United Nations weapons inspector Richard Butler said in January 1998 that "Iraq has about 45 warheads filled with either chemical or biological weapons that have not been found since the end of the 1990-91 Gulf War. We have never received from Iraq an even remotely credible account of its biological weapons program in comparison with what our evidence says is the case." Butler also said that the UN is unsure to what extent Iraq indigenously produces long-range missiles. The United Nations is not satisfied that Iraq has met its missile disarmament obligations its indigenously built Scud-missile variants.
US intelligence officials have said that recent satellite photographs show Iraqi forces increasing their "war-fighting readiness" throughout the country. Iraqi men under the age of 50 are preparing for military attacks by undergoing mandatory weapons training.
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Doc. Code: 7883
Bibliography: Reuters, 13 February 1998, by Anthony Goodman
Headline: UN Council Told New Iraqi Missile In November
Orig. Source:
Date: 13 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf confirmed on 13 February 1998 Iraq's first test launch of a new surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a reported range of 150km. The missile was brought to the attention of the UN Security Council on 19 November 1997 during a briefing on Iraq's chemical and biological arsenal and ballistic missile capability.
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Doc. Code: 7889
Bibliography: Dialog@Carl, 14 February 1998
Headline: Spain Proposes UN To Include Its Experts Into UNSCOM
Orig. Source: ITAR/TASS, 14 February 1998
Date: 14 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
Spain's Foreign Minister, Abel Matutes, suggested that the United Nations include Spanish experts in the UN Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM). Matutes said that Spain would "support its partners' position, including the US," in the event that diplomatic negotiations have run out. He also said that the United States has not yet asked Spain's permission to use military bases to "deliver missile strikes on Iraq."
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Doc. Code: 7890
Bibliography: Reuters, 16 February 1998
Headline: White House Says No Sign Iraq Exported Arms
Orig. Source:
Date: 16 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
A White House official said on 16 February 1998 that the United States has "no credible evidence" backing allegations by the House Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare that Iraq had exported parts of its nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs and up to 400 Scud missiles to Sudan, Yeman, Libya, and Algeria since 1991.
Algeria's Foreign Ministry denied a report in a US news magazine on 16 February 1998 accusing Iraq of selling nuclear materials to Algeria.[1]
Supporting Sources:
[1] Reuters, 16 February 1998, "Algeria Denies Report On Iraqi Weapons Transfer".
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Doc. Code: 7898
Bibliography: Washington Times, 18 February 1998, p. 10, by Bill Gertz
Headline: 'White Paper' Details Iraq's Hidden Biological Weapons
Orig. Source:
Date: 18 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
A US intelligence report released on 17 February 1998 says that Iraq has hidden nerve agents and missiles and has concealed plans to build long-range ballistic missiles since the imposition of UN sanctions after the 1990-91 Gulf War. The document concluded by saying that if sanctions on Iraq were lifted, Iraq could "resume full-scale production of Scud-type missiles perhaps within one year."
The report said that Iraq has produced five missile warheads filled with anthrax, 16 with botulinum, and four with aflatoxin, 157 aerial bombs filled with germ weapons, and has outfitted four Mirage F1 jets with spray tanks for germ weapons. The report further noted, that Iraq "retains a large cadre of nuclear engineers, scientists and technicians who are the foundation of its nuclear program."
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Doc. Code: 7887
Bibliography: Washington Post, 18 February 1998, p.1, by John F. Harris and John M. Goshko
Headline: Clinton Makes Case For Strike Against Iraq
Orig. Source:
Date: 18 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
In a speech to the Pentagon on 17 February 1998, US President Bill Clinton described Iraq's history of weapons inspections after the 1990-91 Gulf War as "delay and deception." While a military strike may be necessary the United States said it prefers a diplomatic solution.
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan will visit Baghdad on 21 February 1998. An official in the Clinton administration said the US does not believe Annan's mission will be successful. If not, US officials said that "an extended air bombardment campaign will become a virtual certainty."
Clinton criticized the Iraqi President by saying "Now, instead of playing by the very rules he agreed to at the end of the Gulf War, Saddam has spent the better part of the past decade trying to cheat on this solemn commitment."
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Doc. Code: 8119
Bibliography: Dawn, 23 February 1998, by R. Jeffrey Smith, [Online] http://dawn.com
Headline: Iraq: US Does Not Know Where Most-Wanted Targets Are
Orig. Source:
Date: 23 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
US Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen described the components of Iraq's military arsenal that most upset the United States. The arsenal consisted of secret stocks of VX nerve gas and spores of anthrax which could be placed into artillery shells or missile warheads. Unnamed sources familiar with planning for the attack on Iraq said that if US President Bill Clinton decided to bomb Iraq, "no weapons such as these will be directly targeted."
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Doc. Code: 7888
Bibliography: Time, 23 February 1998, pp. 40-44
Headline: How The Attack On Iraq Is Planned
Orig. Source:
Date: 23 February 1998
ABSTRACT:
The US Department of Defense released plans describing the airstrikes scheduled against Iraq in February 1998. The "bombing campaign" is planned to last about a week. US and British troops planned to carry out about 1,000 air attacks. The campaign is hoped to "chip away at Saddam's ability to make horror weapons, delay the day Saddam is able to use them against neighbors, and then do it again after 12 months, if necessary."
The aerial attack is divided into four phases. The first phase includes an initial night attack using cruise missiles to reach sites too risky to attack except at long range. Also included in the phase will be F-117 fighters, flying in from Kuwait, targeting communication centers and radars.
The second phase will be aimed at jamming Iraqi radar and destroying surface-to-air missiles, making it safe for B-1 and B-52 bombers in phase three. This phase will concentrate on "high-value targets". The last phase will include American and British concentrated air attacks on suspected weapons sites.
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Doc. Code: 8836
Bibliography: Kommersant Daily, [Online] http://www.online.ru, by Viktor Kalashnikov
Headline: The Americans And Israelis Catch The Germans Cooperating With Iraq
Orig. Source:
Date: 6 March 1998
ABSTRACT:
The US Central Intelligence Agency and the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad have accused a German citizen with links to the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND ) of secretly sharing rocket technology with Iraq. The CIA and Mossad have investigated the activities of the Jordanian branch of the German firm
Concen Group. The Concen Group is a new partner with the German Aerospace concern
Messerschmitt -Bölkow-Blohm, a group that sells rocket technology worldwide.
The investigation has listed one of the firm's technical directors, known as "Robinson," as a rocket technology specialist and a member of the science and technology department of the BND . "Kommersant" has learned that the Concen Group has almost completed the
Condor missile, a more modern European version of Iraq's aging Scud missile. The Condor is capable of carrying a 500 kg payload and hitting targets in Israel and several NATO countries.
The CIA and Mossad have also been investigating two other German companies,
Water Engineering Trading GmbH of Hamburg and
Telemit Electronic GmbH of Munich, both of which may employ BND agents suspected of equipping Iraq, Libya, and "other similar regimes" with military electronics.
The investigation began following an announcement by Vafik Samari, a former Iraqi military intelligence agent who defected to the West, who stated in early March 1998 that he remembered that the Iraqi Embassy in Bonn worked with Germany to purchase new European military technology. Since then, Washington has protested Germany's role in cooperating with Iraq.
A BND source told "Kommersant" that it has tightened control of military technology exports to "troubled regions." The BND source did not deny the activities of those accused of cooperating with Iraq and stated that they were either placed in jail or had fled the country.
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Doc. Code: 8279
Bibliography: FBIS-WEU-98-085, 26 March 1998
Headline: Authorities Claim US 'Disinformation Attempt' Over Iraq
Orig. Source: Sueddeutsche Zeitung (Munich), 26 March 1998
Date: 26 March 1998
ABSTRACT:
According to European intelligence services, a report for the US House of Representatives on alleged hidden Iraqi weapon arsenals abroad was largely a disinformation effort by US intelligence agencies. These sources said the US report was an attempt to rally support for airstrikes against Iraq.
The US report is entitled "The Iraqi WMD Challenge, Myths and Realities,"and was prepared by the Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare of the House of Representatives. It charged that Iraq had stored 400 Scud missiles in Sudan, was building a chemical weapons plant in Libya, and was hiding materials for a nuclear weapon.
A confidential memo prepared in response to the US study by the German Federal Economics Ministry in Bonn concluded that it presented no serious evidence to support the charge that German firms were involved in these activities. The Bonn document is based on findings by Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND ), the Cologne Office of Customs Investigation (ZKA), and foreign trade sources. According to the Bonn report, the US document is "not based on BND findings," and the ZKA has "no findings" regarding Iraq in which Sudan, Libya, or Bulgaria "played a role."
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Doc. Code: 8971
Bibliography: Washington Post
Headline: Annan Says Iraq Will Never Be Fully Disarmed
Orig. Source:
Date: 17 October 1998
ABSTRACT:
United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan told reporters on 16 October 1998 that he believes Iraq will never be fully disarmed and that weapons inspectors may have to avoid confrontational inspections in order to regain Iraq's cooperation. Annan said that he fears Iraq will completely bar UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) from entering Iraq.
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Doc. Code: 8970
Bibliography: Dawn, 21 October 1998, [online] http://dawn.com
Headline: US Says Iran Bigger Threat Than Iraq
Orig. Source:
Date: 21 October 1998
ABSTRACT:
On 21 October 1998, US General Anthony Zinni, commander-in-chief of the US Central Command, told reporters that Iran is a greater threat in the long term than Iraq. Zinni cited Iranís ability to obtain weapons of mass destruction, its possible support of terrorism, and its "very effective navy" as reasons for concern.
Iran has invested in missiles, missile-carrying patrol boats, and advanced submarines among other defense systems. Zinni stated, "I think Iran is one of those countries that looked at the Iraq-Iran War (and) the Gulf War and made some clever decisions."
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Doc. Code: 8965
Bibliography: FBIS-TAC-98-295, 22 October 1998
Headline: Russia Delivering Missile Homing Systems To Iraq
Orig. Source: Interfax (Moscow), 22 October 1998
Date: 22 October 1998
ABSTRACT:
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin announced on 22 October 1998 that Russia "strictly observes the UN Security Council sanctions against Iraq and has not delivered missile homing systems to that country." His remarks were in response to an 18 October 1998 Washington Post article about a private investigation of the so-called "gyroscope case," in which 800 Russian gyroscopes allegedly meant for Iraq were seized in Jordan in November 1995. The current investigation, according to the Washington Post article, is made up of Russian and US nonproliferation experts.
Rakhmanin concluded by saying that "Russia was and remains loyal to international norms of nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems."
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Doc. Code: 8952
Bibliography: The Times (London), 27 October 1998, James Bone, [online] http://www.Sunday-times.co.uk
Headline: Experts Confirm Nerve Gas On Iraqi Warheads
Orig. Source:
Date: 27 October 1998
ABSTRACT:
According to a Sunday Times article, a UN Security Council report stated that Swiss and French tests on fragments of Iraqi missiles found a "degradation agent" which could be VX, Sarin, or Soman. The US, Swiss, and French tests all found traces of detergent used to wash the missile fragments.
According to a contradictory article [1], The UN Security Council's report stated that the French tests showed the possible presence of a poison gas, while the Swiss tests "found no evidence of a poison gas."
Supporting Sources:
[1] "Panel Studying Iraq Missiles Is Of 2 Minds On Nerve Gas." Ibrahim, Youssef M. New York Times, 27 October 1998.
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Doc. Code: 8954
Bibliography: New York Times, 2 November 1998, [Online] http://www.nytimes.com
Headline: A Defiant Iraq Hardens Its Stand On Arms Inspections
Orig. Source:
Date: 2 November 1998
ABSTRACT:
Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan said on 1 November 1998 that Iraq would not cooperate with UN Weapons inspectors unless the UN Security Council begins to lift trade sanctions. Ramadan reported that military action would not deter Iraq's decision. He said that "not even a threat of force would make Baghdad back down and Iraq does not fear the threat of the United States because it has been threatening Iraq for the past eight years."
US Defense Secretary William Cohen said the United States would consult its allies to resolve the latest "standoff with Iraq, but retains the option of unilateral military action."
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Doc. Code: 8969
Bibliography: Barbara Crossette, New York Times, 6 November 1998, [online] http://www.nytimes.com
Headline:U.N. Avoiding Talks Of Force, Criticizes Iran On Arms Team
Orig. Source:
Date: 6 November 1998
ABSTRACT:
The UN Security Council voted unanimously on 5 November 1998 to officially demand that Saddam Hussein remove his ban on UN weapons inspections. The council did not mention its opinion on the use of force against Iraq.
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Doc. Code: 8960
Bibliography: Peter Baker, Washington Post, 9 November 1998, [online] http://www.washingtonpost.com
Headline:For Now, Clinton Yields To Diplomacy In Iraq Crisis
Orig. Source:
Date: 9 November 1998
ABSTRACT:
US President Bill Clinton directed his advisors to explore more options before making a firm recommendation on a possible military strike against Iraq. Clintonís senior military and foreign policy advisors met on 8 November 1998 at Camp David and briefed Clinton on the latest developments regarding Iraq.
According to P.J. Crowley, spokesman for the National Security Council, Clintonís advisors will report to Clinton over the next few days as Clinton has not made "any decisions."
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