Catch-all Clause Debated: Commerce Wants To Name Risky Buyers
|
| Risk Report, 1/96-2/96, pp. 1, 12 |
| The U.S. Commerce and Defense Departments want to alter the U.S. catch-all
clause which obliges U.S. exporters to inform Commerce if they know that
any of their products are destined to be used in the development of WMD,
regardless of whether they are included on any of the export control lists.
The Energy and State Departments are opposed to the proposed changes. The
Bush administration adopted the catch-all clause following revelations
that U.S. technology had contributed to Iraq's missile and nuclear projects
prior to the Gulf War of 1991.
Both Commerce and Defense want to limit the application of the catch-all
clause to those products already regulated by U.S. export control lists.
Although items such as oscilloscopes operating at one gigahertz or more
would be subject to the clause, because they are listed as controlled for
export, it is not obvious whether equipment such as electron beam welders
would be subject to the catch-all rule, because they are not included on
any of the control lists. Prior to the Gulf War of 1991, Iraq
used imported electron beam welders to manufacture "elongated rocket casings
for enhanced Scud missiles." It also remains unclear whether manufacturing
machinery, specialized construction materials, and support equipment would
be subject to the terms of the new proposal because they are not included
on export control lists. Such materials could be used in the development
of missile production facilities. Under the proposed changes to the catch-
all clause, U.S. firms could knowingly export such items to missile production
facilities abroad.
Commerce and Defense also want to change the current procedure for granting
export licenses under the catch-all provision. The current procedure requires
licenses to be denied if an item will make a "material contribution" to
the development of WMD. Commerce and Defense want to "redefine" the term
"material contribution" so that it includes "more general criteria," including
the equipment's capabilities, the recipient country's history of proliferation,
and the recipient's general relationship with Washington. According to
an anonymous U.S. official, these new criteria would put export control
decisions "all over the map" because they are so vague. The official added
that current criteria allow for "reasoned debate" and for "closure" because
they are "quite precise."
Iain Baird, deputy assistant secretary for export administration at
the Commerce Department, said his department currently deals with between
150 and 200 catch-all clause inquiries every 12 months; between 10 and
20 percent of these inquiries result in denials. The exporter either receives
a "formal denial of a license application that has been filed," or an "is
informed letter" which informs them a license application is needed before
the product can be exported. License application decisions are approved
or denied on the basis of a consensus between the federal agencies involved
in the export licensing process. The Commerce Department is campaigning
to have the names of the buyers listed in these letters published in the
Federal Register. The department asserts that it is not fair to prevent
a firm which inquires about an end-user from selling its goods or services
when those who have not been informed might "export freely to the same
buyer." Commerce also asserts that if the end-user is "truly dangerous,"
then all U.S. firms should be barred from trading with them. The State
Department, ACDA, and U.S. intelligence are concerned that publishing the
names could jeopardize diplomatic relations with the end-user country's
government and threaten intelligence sources. There is also anxiety that
publishing such a list could be viewed as requiring U.S. exporters to obtain
a license for all items destined to a named buyer, however trivial the
product. One U.S. agency has suggested that the names of end-users should
be given to the governments of U.S. allies so that exporters in these countries
are also restricted from selling to them. This idea has been opposed by
some because the information which U.S. exporters give to the U.S. government
is "proprietary and confidential." The MTCR members regularly exchange
data on end-users, including descriptions of any transfers which are denied.
According to one anonymous official, the debate will reach the White House
and the National Security Council will be forced to make the final decision.
|
Courtesy Of The UK
|
| Middle East, 1/96, pp. 12-13, by Alan George |
| Between 1988 and 11/91, a U.K. trading firm run by an unnamed Iraqi-born
Briton in West London transferred to Iraq approximately 6 million pounds
worth of guidance systems designed and manufactured for Scud missiles.
The missile guidance components were manufactured by approximately two
dozen unsuspecting specialist engineering firms in London and the south-east
of the U.K: the Nokes Foundry in Halstead, Essex, manufactured approximately
20 aluminum components designed for Scud missiles and even displayed a
picture of one in the company's brochure; Pipco of Hounslow drew up and
provided engineering drawings; and Norcroft Dynamics of Pusey in Wiltshire
manufactured controls systems and also constructed the electric motors
for the Scud missile's gyroscopes using components purchased from other
companies. Norcroft was also provided with a Soviet Scud missile manual
by the London-based trading company. All the firms delivered their components
to the procurement company in London and have denied that they knew Iraq
was the final destination.
Transfers made before Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 8/90 were shipped
through the U.K.'s Heathrow airport directly to Iraq's Ministry of Industry
and Military Industrialization, which was run by Saddam Hussein's son-in-law
Hussain Kamal al Majid. Kamal defected to Jordan in 8/95. These transfers
violated U.K. controls on trade in missile technology. After 8/90, missile
gyroscope components were transported by truck from the U.K. to Vienna,
Austria, before being sent to Iraq
via Jordan. The Iraqi-born Briton had created a shipping company in Austria
to send the components through Jordan to Iraq. To avoid U.N. trade sanctions
on Iraq, the shipments were marked as dental equipment. The shipments after
8/90 also violated U.N. trade sanctions on Baghdad.
Information about these transfers only surfaced after U.N. weapons inspectors
discovered the last shipment of gyroscope components at the bottom of a
canal close to Baghdad. The U.N. was later provided with information on
the source of these items by Iraqi
officials.
In 2/95, U.K. Customs investigators apprehended five persons connected
with the illicit transfers to Iraq,
including the Iraqi-born Briton and two former directors of Norcroft Dynamics,
but they were all subsequently released. No evidence has surfaced to prove
that it was the firm run by the Iraqi-born Briton which actually transferred
the guidance components to Iraq. The firm's records only include details
of exports to Iraq of non- military items, including dental equipment.
The Iraqi-born Briton has also denied participating in the illicit shipment
of missile components to Baghdad.
Austrian Customs have launched their own inquiry into the Vienna firm
that transhipped the missile components from the U.K. to Iraq.
Dr Walter Nemec, a Vienna-based public prosecutor, has not decided whether
to prosecute the Iraqi-born Briton and three Jordanians who helped to operate
the Vienna- based front company.
Supporting Sources:
[1] Alan George, Flight International, 11/8/95-11/14/95, p. 4, "UK Companies
Breached UN Iraq Scud Embargo."
|
UNSCOM Report, December 1995
|
| Disarmament Diplomacy, 1/96, pp. 22-29 |
| On 12/17/95, the Executive Chairman of the United Nations Special Commission
in Iraq (UNSCOM) submitted the commission's
10th report to the U.N. Security Council on the status of Iraq's WMD and
ballistic missile programs. According to the report, Iraq submitted a 2,500
page report to UNSCOM on 11/16/95 including supporting documentation such
as "contracts, offers, orders and minutes of meetings related to Iraq's
dealings with its main foreign suppliers in the missile area." Iraq confirmed
in the report that it had used a large radar destroyed by the U.N. in 1995
for prohibited purposes. Iraq had previously claimed the radar was used
for legitimate purposes only and that UNSCOM's actions were unjustified.
UNSCOM has begun analyzing the report to determine how fully Iraq has complied
with U.N. Resolution 687 in the missile field. UNSCOM claimed the report
alone will not be enough for the commission to make this assessment accurately
because Iraq did not include "original documents to account for the expenditure
of all imported proscribed missile systems." Baghdad's report also failed
to document the production and disposal of missile systems that were reportedly
produced in Iraq, although it does supply more information about rocket
engines whose major components were reportedly produced in Iraq. Iraq acknowledged
the production of approximately 80 Scud-type engine subsystems, 53 of which
had been judged unsuitable for use, and 17 of which had been destroyed
during testing. According to Baghdad, the remaining 10 engines have been
destroyed, although no evidence exists to back up this claim. Iraq also
claims to have produced 120 warheads, but again gave no evidence to prove
this.
Iraq's records regarding its production of guidance and control systems,
liquid propellant fuels, and ground support equipment, are riddled with
inconsistencies. In 10/95, Iraq gave
the U.N. 18 "gyro-instruments" but failed to say why it had previously
withheld them. Iraq did acknowledge the use of one of the gyro-instruments
by an Iraqi missile facility. UNSCOM also possesses information that directly
contradicts some aspects of the Iraqi report, or indicates that the report
does not fully disclose all the facts. The information Iraq has provided
on the link between its missile projects and the development of chemical,
biological, and nuclear weapons has fallen short of the commission's requirements.
In 10/95, the Commission reported that Iraq
had renewed its efforts to acquire technology from abroad for its missile
development program. The commission is currently investigating a shipment
of "high-grade missile components," possibly for long-range missiles, that
was seized by Jordanian authorities en route to Iraq. Although Baghdad
claims it did not arrange the shipment, some of the missile components
made their way into Iraq. UNSCOM hopes to identify the precise type of
missile components that were transferred, the origin of this shipment,
the path it followed, and its final destination. Iraq has acknowledged
that it has secretly continued to develop and manufacture U.N.-prohibited
SSMs since the adoption of U.N. Resolution 687. In the report, Iraq failed
to include information regarding tests involving specially adapted surface-to-air
missiles which could potentially have a range beyond the U.N.-set limits.
|
Playing Hide And Seek With Saddam
|
| Jane's Defence Weekly, 1/3/96, pp. 15, 18-19, by James
Bruce |
Note: the article includes aerial photographs of the Al Kindi missile
research and development facility in Mosul, Iraq.
..... According to U.N. officials, companies from France, Germany, and
Eastern Europe continue to supply Iraq with proscribed military items.
U.S. sources claim that since 1990, European firms have supplied Iraq with
missile guidance systems, advanced machine tools, and a specialized industrial
furnace used to manufacture missile components for Scud-type missiles.
Iraq's procurement effort appears to be connected to its Ababil- 100 project
to produce 100-150 km-range SSMs, which are not prohibited by the U.N.
In 10/95, an UNSCOM report indicated that Iraq had increased the range
of some of its missiles through reverse engineering.
|
Jordan Confirms Missile Parts Were Iraq-Bound
|
| Jane's Defence Weekly, 1/3/96, p. 3, by James Bruce |
| King Hussein has confirmed that Jordanian officials in Amman intercepted
a shipment of Russian-made missile components, including 115 gyroscopes,
destined for Iraq; the deal may have
involved a Palestinean. The shipment left Moscow on a Jordanian plane on
11/10/95. According to documents obtained by the U.N., the missile parts
were ordered by the Karama research center located near Baghdad, where
Iraq is developing missiles with ranges of up to 150 km [1]. According
to Jordanian officials, Weaam Gharbiyeh, a Palestinian who set up an import-export
company in Amman after leaving Kuwait in 1990, purchased the $25 million
shipment. Gharbiyeh left Amman in 9/95 or early 10/95 and is now suspected
to be in Baghdad. On 12/8/95, Iraq's official news agency reported that
an unnamed Jordanian offered "missile guidance and control systems" to
Baghdad, but an official from Iraq's Military Industrialization Organization
said that Iraq did not conclude a deal for this equipment. The Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs has denied any involvement in the deal [1].
Supporting Sources:
[1] R. Jeffrey Smith, Washington Post, 12/15/95, p. A30, "U.N. Is Said
To Find Russian Markings On Iraq-Bound
Military Equipment."
|
UN Uncovers Secret Iraqi Ballistic Missile Project
|
| Flight International, 1/3/96-1/9/96, p. 17, by Alan George |
| According to a report submitted to the U.N. Security Council by UNSCOM
chief Rolf Ekeus, Iraq has violated
U.N. Resolution 687 by pursuing the development of a long-range ballistic
missile with a range greater than 150 km. The U.N. permits Iraq to produce
short-range missiles with ranges no greater than 150 km. The technology
used for developing and producing short-range missiles, however, is "equally
applicable" to longer range missiles. According to the report, Iraq has
conducted several tests with modified surface-to-air missiles (SAM) for
this illegal project. Western officials assert the SAMs are probably Soviet
SA-2 missiles, which have been used to develop SSMs in the past. India
used SA-2 technology for its indigenous Prithvi and Agni SSMs.
In 10/95, Jordanian officials intercepted a shipment of 115 Russian
gyroscopes and accelerometers enroute to Iraq.
The Iraqi shipment, which originated in Moscow and arrived in Amman, may
have been arranged by Austrian middlemen. According to "well informed sources,"
the items are designed for use in long-range missiles, although they could
also be used in medium-range missiles to obtain greater accuracies. It
is not known whether the items were intended for the weapon derived from
SA-2 technology. According to the report, evidence exists that the missile
components were intended for use in long-range missiles. Ekeus claims this
evidence indicates that Iraq is continuing to conduct missile development
activities banned by the U.N.
|
Matrix Churchill Helped Iraq With Nuclear Capability
|
| Financial Times, 2/13/96, pp. 1, 16, by John Plender
and Tim Laxton |
| In the late 1980s, the U.K.'s Matrix Churchill provided Iraq
with equipment "specifically designed for military use" but "knowingly
deceived" the British government about the exports. In 1992, Matrix Churchill
Managing Director Paul Henderson and two of his colleagues were acquitted
of illegally exporting military-related equipment to Iraq when it emerged
that the U.K. government had "implicitly encouraged" the sale of dual-use
technology to Baghdad, thereby breaching its own guidelines in the process.
One of the reasons British government ministers encouraged these sales
was because they thought Matrix Churchill executives were giving the U.K.'s
MI6 intelligence organization information on Iraq's arms build-up.
Although an IAEA report has confirmed that the U.K.'s Matrix Churchill
transferred components to Iraq's project
to construct a "prototype gas centrifuge for uranium enrichment" between
11/88 and 4/90, Henderson has claimed that he was "opposed in principle"
to the export of any items used in the manufacture of nuclear weapons;
Matrix Churchill had suspected the parts were actually destined for Baghdad's
K-1000 missile-related project. Although the U.K's MI6 intelligence organization
says Henderson withheld "the complete truth" about his company's contract
with Iraq, Henderson claims that he "preferred not to give information
to MI6 about the K-1000 project" until he was "satisfied that he could
give full and detailed particulars."
Matrix Churchill also misled the U.K.'s Department of Trade and Industry
(DTI) over a contract to construct lathes for Iraq.
The lathes were designed to machine helical fin stabilizers onto 155 mm
artillery shells in order to improve their accuracy and range. The artillery
shells had a longer range than anything possessed by the U.K. or NATO at
that time. Matrix Churchill used a false description of the lathes in its
application for an export license and concealed that the items were destined
for an Iraqi arms factory. DTI subsequently determined that an export license
was not needed for the lathes.
|
Missile Plans By Iraq May Aim At Europe
|
| Washington Times, 2/16/96, pp. A1, A19, by Stewart Stogel |
| On 2/14/96, UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus answered questions about Iraq's
potential development of a long-range missile "during a closed-door session
with the Security Council." U.N. inspectors suspect Iraq
is attempting to develop a longer range version of the Al-Hussein missile,
with a range in excess of 2,000 miles. According to a senior U.N. official,
such a missile would be capable of reaching London, Paris, and Moscow.
Another U.N. official "familiar with the investigation" said that such
a missile would "make the Europeans think twice before going to war."
Although U.S and U.N. officials are concerned that Iraq's missile program
may be more advanced than previously thought, one U.S. intelligence source
said that any program involving missiles capable of reaching European capitals
is in its "rudimentary stages." According to an official from the Russian
Foreign Ministry, Iraqi Deputy Prime
Minister Tariq Aziz was questioned about the long-range missile program
during his visit to Moscow in 1/96. The Russian official said Aziz "denied
any knowledge of the program."
In 12/95, UNSCOM discovered a batch of new gyroscopes in the Tigris
River near Baghdad. According to the commission, the gyroscopes were "of
a type normally used in long-range missiles." UNSCOM also said the gyroscopes
were suited for missiles with ranges of 1,200 miles. According to the U.N.
official "familiar with the investigation," it was not clear whether the
gyroscopes were to be used in a missile prototype or if they were destined
to be taken apart "to study the technology." The U.N. official added thatIraq has experienced difficulties in
developing guidance systems and fuel for the long-range missile.
International concern over Iraq's long-range missile program has been
exacerbated because Baghdad has failed to provide documentary evidence
to prove that it destroyed 2,000 pounds of anthrax bacteria. According
to one UNSCOM inspector, if Baghdad developed a means to deliver this anthrax,
"it would be a very dangerous development."
|
2 Iraqi Defectors Slain On Return
|
| New York Times, 2/24/96, pp. A1, A5, by Douglas Jehl |
| On 2/23/96, Lieut. General Hussein Kamel al Majid and Colonel Saddam
Kamel al-Majid were killed when their house in Baghdad was reportedly stormed
by members of their own family. The two men had recently returned to Iraq
after defecting to Jordan in 8/95. Hussein Kamel was the former head of
Iraq's clandestine weapons program, while his brother Saddam Kamel was
the former head of the Iraqi secret police. There is "little doubt" that
the killings were sanctioned by the Iraqi regime because Hussein Kamel
promised in the summer of 1995 to help topple Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi
News Agency labelled the two men as "disappointed traitors."
Supporting Sources:
[1] Douglas Jehl, New York Times, 2/21/96, pp. A1, A5, "Iraqi
Defector Goes Home Again With A Father-In-Law's Blessing." [2] Amy Dockser
Marcus, Wall Street Journal, 2/23/96, p. A6, "Iraqi
Defector Returns With Hise Secrets."
|
Back to Baghdad, Part 3-Armed And Dangerous
|
| CNN Presents, Transcript #1, 2/25/96, pp. 2-3 |
| According to CNN correspondent John Holliman, in late 1995 Jordanian
authorities seized over 100 sets of missile guidance parts that were en
route from Russia to Iraq. The shipment
included gyroscopes and accelerometers designed for a Russian SLBM, but
reportedly capable of guiding Iraqi missiles to targets "as far away as
London." Holliman said Iraqi officials repudiated the story in 12/95, claiming
a Palestinian businessman was responsible for the $25 million shipment
of Russian equipment and that the Iraqi government knew nothing about it.
Additional gyroscopes were subsequently discovered some weeks later in
the Tigris River near Baghdad. UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus said the Iraqi government
claimed it did not want the components, and asked the person who had imported
them to take them back. According to Ekeus, Iraq asserted that when the
importer did not do so, the gyroscopes were thrown in the canal. Ekeus
interpreted this incident as a "very powerful warning signal" that Iraq
has not ceased in its attempts to produce long-range missiles. Holliman
cited CNN reports that the U.N. possesses documents which prove an Iraqi
official ordered the gyroscopes. UNSCOM official Charles Duelfer called
this "the most serious violation in the area of ongoing activities that
we have seen," and said Iraq had conceded that its missile design center
had engineered the deal. Former U.N. weapons inspector David Kay has described
hearing repeated lies from Iraq, despite physical evidence to the contrary.
According to Kay, "you knew they were lying, they knew you knew they were
lying and they kept on lying."
After his defection to Jordan from Iraq
in 8/95, Saddam Hussein's son-in- law General Hussein Kamel Magid surrendered
information on Iraq's weapons program. According to Kamel, Iraq's goal
was to produce a nuclear warhead weighing no more than 500 kg and possibly
as little as 300 kg, so that it could be carried on missiles or airplanes.
Kamel also asserted that "the Iraqi head of state" directly ordered the
destruction and concealment of files and documentation concerning Iraq's
weapons program. According to Holliman, Kamel's defection was followed
by the sudden discovery of "140 steel boxes crammed with documents, drawings
and components of Iraq's weapons programs," inside a chicken coop on Kamel's
property. Former weapons inspector Robert Kelley said Iraqi scientists
claimed Kamel had prevented them from disclosing the truth earlier. According
to Duelfer, the Iraqis demonstrated a pattern of withholding the truth
until the facts could no longer be denied. Holliman described Kamel's defection
and the flood of information that followed as "a gold mine," which was
still being itemized and assessed by the U.N.
Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq
Aziz denied that Iraq was withholding documents sought by the U.N. Aziz
said that whenever there is a document available "we will give it to you
and we have proved that." According to Holliman, the U.N. has established
a monitoring system to observe former weapons plants and scientists in
Iraq because it is believed that Baghdad continues to conceal "bombs and
missile warheads filled with nerve gas and lethal germs." Holliman claims
Iraq's admission of complicity in ordering the missile guidance systems
raises "a whole new set of questions, and possibly a whole new set of lies."
|
Iran Studies Iraqi Missiles
|
| Iran Brief, 5/6/96, p. 1 |
| According to an unnamed source in Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) acquired "at least" three Iraqi
Al- Hussein surface-to-surface missiles (SSM) following the 1990-91 Gulf
War. Iran used these SSMs to enhance production, training, and research
at the IRGC Land Force Missile & Artillery Training Center in Isfahan.
Iran's Defense Industries Organization (DIO) and the IRGC Self Sufficiency
Department use the center for research and production purposes, while the
IRGC Land Force and Air Force train SSM and SAM crews at the center. According
to the source, two Russian missile experts and 10 Chinese artillery experts
are employed as instructors at the Center.
In addition to the missiles, Iranian military intelligence reportedly
transported documents pertaining to the missiles out of Iraq,
in an operation conceived by "Iraqi opposition elements and some Iraqi
army officers who were eager to have some extra money."
|
Iraq: Oppositionist Claims To Reveal `Truth' About Iraq CBW
|
| FBIS-NES-96-122, 6/21/96
Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), 6/21/96, p. 6, by 'Imad al-Furayh |
On 6/20/96, Major General Wafiq al-Samarra'i, former director of Iraqi
military intelligence, told the Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper's bureau in
Amman, Jordan, that Baghdad still possessed "scores of surface-to-surface
missiles in the prohibited range." Al-Samarra'i cited "reliable information"
that Iraq still possessed 40 Al-Hussein SSMs, 25 of which were "in a disassembled
form," and 200 military germ substances. The former head of Iraqi military
intelligence said that Iraq was hiding "very important" documents related
to its weapons programs in the Republican Palace and in camps of the Special
Guard and the Republican Guard. Al-Samarra'i also said he had "reliable
information" regarding houses in which documents were kept, and added that
some documentation was stored in armored personnel carriers and tanks.
|
Iraq May Have 16 Banned Missiles
|
| Washington Times, 7/2/96, p. A12 |
| On 7/1/96, UNSCOM Chief Rolf Ekeus told a news conference in Kuwait
City that Iraq may be concealing between
six and 16 long-range ballistic missiles capable of delivering conventional,
biological, or chemical warheads. Ekeus said Iraq claimed it destroyed
the missiles in 1991, but had failed to provide evidence proving this.[1]
According to Ekeus, UNSCOM was concerned that Iraq continued to conceal
prohibited items and to give the commission false information. Ekeus emphasized
that UNSCOM will increase its scrutiny of Iraq if Baghdad does not cooperate.[1]
During his visit to Kuwait, Ekeus met with the Emir of Kuwait, Jabir
al- Ahmad al-Sabah, Prime Minister Sa'd al-'Abdallah al-Sabah, and several
other officials, to discuss recent developments concerning Iraq's WMD program.[2]
Supporting Sources:
[1] Kuna (Kuwait), 7/1/96; in FBIS-NES-96-128, 7/1/96, "Kuwait: Rolf
Ekeus Says Iraq Still Possesses Long-Range
Missiles." [2] Sulayman al-'As'usi, MBC Television (London), 7/1/96; in
FBIS-NES-96- 128, 7/1/96, "Kuwait: Ekeus Sets Conditions For Lifting Iraqi
Embargo." [3] Al-Quds Al-'Arabi (London), 7/2/96, p. 15; in FBIS-NES-96-129,
7/2/96, "Iraq: Ekeus Missile Claim
Said Part Of U.S. Plan To Starve Iraqis." [4] Reuter, 7/1/96; in Executive
News Service, 7/2/96, "Iraq May Still Be Hiding Prohibited Arms-Ekeus."
[5] Reuter, 7/1/96; in Executive News Service, 7/2/96, "Iraq
May Have Up To 16 Banned Long-Range Missiles." [6] Reuter, 7/1/96; in Executive
News Service, 7/2/96, "Iraq May Have
Upto 16 Banned Missiles-U.N. Official."
|
Exile Says Iraqis Are Fooling U.N. On Missile Count
|
| Washington Times, 7/31/96, p. A15, by Paige Bowers |
| In a 7/96 interview with The Washington Times, General Wafiq al-Sammara'i,
former head of Iraqi external military
intelligence who defected to Syria in 11/94, said Iraq possessed approximately
40 Scud surface-to-surface missiles, and not six to 16 as UNSCOM had estimated.
Al-Sammara'i said Iraq's Special Security Apparatus purchased 50 flatbed
trucks in 7/96 to move physical evidence away from areas where UNSCOM inspectors
might discover it. UNSCOM spokesman Ewen Buchanan said the UN knew Iraq
was using flatbed trucks to conceal banned material. According to al-Sammara'i,
Iraq would remain a threat even if UNSCOM eliminated all of its prohibited
weapons because the country would retain the manufacturing facilities for
them.
Al-Sammara'i said he was part of the Iraqi
opposition movement before he defected to Damascus from Iraq. A US government
official said that al- Sammara'i was not a central figure in the Iraqi
opposition movement and that he was attempting to build a future for himself.
However, the official admitted that al-Sammara'i was one of numerous Iraqis
the US government consulted about weapons information and that he was "in
a position to know a lot of things." The official added that there was
a great amount of uncertainty over exactly what Iraq was hiding.
In an interview with the London-based Al-Majallah newspaper, al-Sammara'i
said Iraq might be able to conceal
Scud missiles by burying them in containers after detaching sensitive components
because "it is not possible to scan the entire territory for radioactivity"
using satellites.[1] Al- Sammara'i said many of Iraq's missiles are armed
with chemical or biological warheads.[1] Al-Sammara'i told the newspaper
that the Soviet Union exported approximately 1,000 Scud R17 missiles to
Iraq and the range of these missiles was increased from 300 to 600 km to
produce modified versions known as Al-Hussein and Al-Abbas.[1] According
to al-Sammara'i, Iraq later indigenously produced these missiles and their
engines.[1]
Al-Sammara'i said Iraq's possession of a small number of long-range
missiles confirmed Saddam Hussein's desire to possess biological weapons.[1]
According to al-Sammara'i, Iraq will
be capable of producing long-range missiles once UNSCOM inspectors have
been withdrawn from the country for a prolonged period.[1] Al-Sammara'i
added that the regime's relations with the Western firms that provided
Iraq with WMD-related technology and materials "are essentially there."
He added that the Iraqi regime would resume these contacts once the necessary
funds became available.[1]
On 7/7/96, al-Sammara'i told London-based MBC television that Iraq's
40 Al- Hussein missiles are armed with conventional, chemical, and bacteriological
warheads, and that Iraq possessed 250
biological shells.[2] He added that UNSCOM inspectors had approached him
more than once, and that the Iraqi opposition movement will do anything
"to rescue the region from all these dangers and from despotism."[2]
Supporting Sources:
[1] Ghalib Darwish, Al-Majallah (London), 7/28/96-8/3/96, pp. 30-31;
in FBIS-NES-96-149, 8/3/96, "Iraq:
Al-Samarra'i Assesses Saddam's Position." [2] Nicole Tannuri, MBC Television
(London), 7/7/96; in FBIS-NES-96-131, 7/7/96, "Iraq:
Defector Claims Regime Has 40 Missiles, Biological Shells."
|
Israel: Experts Believe Iraq Has 50-200 Poorly Maintained SCUD Bs
|
| FBIS-NES-96-172, 9/4/96
Ha'aretz (Tel Aviv), 9/4/96, p. A6, by Yosi Melman |
| Yiftah Sapir, who heads the military balance project at the Jaffee
Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, Israel, said Iraq
is hiding between 50 and 200 Al-Hussein ballistic missiles. According to
Sapir, this estimate of Iraq's inventory of 600 km-range Al-Hussein missiles
was "based on various assessments."
UNSCOM inspectors reached their conclusion on Iraq's missile capabilities
by deducting from the number of missiles that the Soviet Union exported
to Iraq the more than 200 missiles
Iraq fired at Iran, about 80 missiles Iraq fired against Saudi Arabia,
and the 39 missiles Iraq launched at Israel. Also deducted from the total
were the 80-90 missiles which UNSCOM confirmed Iraq destroyed after the
1990-91 Gulf War and the several dozen missiles destroyed by UN inspectors
in 1992-93.
It is assumed that Iraq's remaining missiles are hidden along with conventional
warheads, but without the fuel needed to launch them. Although most of
Iraq's chemical warheads were destroyed by UN inspectors, the hidden missiles
could be fitted with chemical warheads because the manufacture of the gas
for these warheads is not a complicated process, and Iraq
has already demonstrated an ability to do this. Sapir believes the Iraqi
missiles will not be well maintained because they are concealed in places
difficult to access. According to Sapir, it would take a well organized
army like Syria's six hours to prepare a missile for launch or one day
for a barrage of missiles. It would take Iraq much longer because its missiles
are poorly maintained, the Iraqi army is in a poor condition, and Baghdad
needs to keep its missiles hidden. It could take Iraq several days to prepare
a missile for launch. Experts do not know if Iraq has hidden missiles at
locations along its border with Jordan so they can be launched against
Israel.
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